A year after, ‘it’s morning yet on creation day’

This column debuted on April 7, 2021, a point in time when the Nigerian economy was crawling out of recession imposed on it by a number of factors, both internal and external. Appropriately, it began with a question, a puzzle, and a worry over the state of the economy and its likely trajectory going into […]

This column debuted on April 7, 2021, a point in time when the Nigerian economy was crawling out of recession imposed on it by a number of factors, both internal and external. Appropriately, it began with a question, a puzzle, and a worry over the state of the economy and its likely trajectory going into the future.

One year after and with the nation now well into that future we peeped into, the puzzle remains unresolved, and the worries refuse to dissipate. In the words of one of Nigeria’s great thinkers and writers, Chinua Achebe, it is still ‘morning yet on creation day’. My first opinion on this column was titled “Nigeria’s Fiscal Position and Sustainability: Where Do We go from Here?”

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That piece explored and indeed bemoaned the unwarranted state of Nigeria’s macroeconomic balance as evident in the relevant indicators. There were cries about low government revenue versus the dire needs calling for attention. There was the issue of debt service that was and has been taking away resources that should be deployed to resolve the current problems.

Sadly, but in truth, the situation has gotten much worse over the year. At times I have had to ask the question: Where lies the fault? In the stars or in ourselves? Why? Because we have gone to and come back with empty pots from the same river where others filled their jars. In the last year, whether we like it or not, Nigeria’s past has come from behind to haunt its people, yet rather than for us to correct the wrongs of the past, we keep making more mistakes that may further haunt us in the future.

The consequences of the policy failures of all the governments have refused to go away, which is why as an oil-producing nation (Africa’s leading producer), we are crying while others are laughing.  We cannot enjoy the oil windfall occasioned by the war between Russia and Ukraine that has given oil producers unexpected revenue. At a time when the oil price is at a new high level, Nigeria’s production is at a historic low, denying us the benefit of the high oil price. At a time when the currencies of oil-producing countries are regaining strength, the Naira is losing value, with no end in sight to the depreciation at the parallel market, despite the retinue of administrative measures, which the Central Bank of Nigeria continues to use to suppress demand for foreign currencies.

It is so sad that Nigeria cannot take advantage of the high oil price because what we get with the right hand, we fritter away with the left because we have refused to be a refining nation and we just cannot deal with basic issues undermining our production. Besides the security issues and theft undermining oil output and scaring away most investors, especially the international oil companies that are silently leaving the country through strategic divestments, the government has refused to conduct oil licensing rounds and raised uncertainties around license renewals.

Hence, the oil sector has seen little or no investments in production and exploration over the past decade, a major issue that may come to haunt us more than we can ever imagine in the next few years. We built refineries but over time we systematically ran them aground even with bogus annual budgets for Turn Around Maintenance exercises that never were. Interestingly, the government keeps making budgets and of course, expends resources on the moribund refineries. Nigerians should not even be shocked the refineries have got staff, some of whom may have budgets for both local and oversea training and travel every year.

As if it is not bad enough that we have to import refined products at higher prices, partly caused by the Russia-Ukraine war, some acclaimed leaders still continue to exploit the unwarranted crisis of fuel importation to siphon billions under all sorts of schemes. It is a shame that in an oil-producing country, the aviation industry almost shut down because we do not have aviation fuel.

It is sad that Nigeria’s acclaimed leaders and of course some followers are not ashamed of our situation; rather they exploit it in the belief that they are smart enough to loot the country, even when they are in truth the “worst” of us and are obviously not wise. They either do not know or have chosen to ignore the fact that the crisis they are creating by looting the country’s resources will haunt them or at least their future generations. 

Every single challenge Nigeria is experiencing today is a consequence of policy and people failure, from successive governments to date. Politicians say several years of military rule plunged the country into chaos but we have had our version of democracy for 23 straight years, yet there is so little to cheer about. Most Asian countries, including China, Taiwan, Singapore, and Malaysia transformed their economy in less than two decades. But here we are, still wobbling as a country. No doubt, we are a sleeping giant, but how we rise from the slumber is important because it is not a question of whether or not Nigeria would wake up, it is a question of where would the country be when it wakes up.

Over the past decade, it has been mere grandiose economic policy designs with no results, and it is hard to count workable and result-oriented policy reforms in the country. It’s really worrisome that the country is just like a driverless car, and so bad without a destination. From leaders to followers, young and old, we must CHANGE for GOOD. It’s morning and we must rise to work. Enough of the snoring and deceit. It’s time for real and pragmatic measures to change the tide! Those who dominate the future see it ahead and prepare for it, so that, in the worlds of Gary Hamel and C.K. Prahalad, this country must compete for the future. The truth, however, is that only those who see the future before it arrives can compete in it.