Tough times, ominous silence

Not many can put it as succinctly as the economist Thomas Sowell. The first lesson of economics, he insists, is scarcity: There is never enough of anything to fully satisfy all those who want it. Of course most of us know that already. It had been drummed into us from the first day in any […]

Not many can put it as succinctly as the economist Thomas Sowell. The first lesson of economics, he insists, is scarcity: There is never enough of anything to fully satisfy all those who want it. Of course most of us know that already. It had been drummed into us from the first day in any introductory economics class. Sowell however added his punch line: The first lesson in politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. Let us quote from his book “Is Reality Optional? -And Other Essays”:
“When politicians discover some group that is being vocal about not having as much as they want, the “solution” is to give them more. Where do politicians get this “more”? They rob Peter to pay Paul.
“After a while, of course, they discover that Peter doesn’t have enough. Bursting with compassion, politicians rush to the rescue. Needless to say, they do not admit that robbing Peter to pay Paul was a dumb idea in the first place. On the contrary, they now rob Tom, Dick and Harry to help Peter.”
If this sounds familiar, it is because it is. The Government came to power complaining loudly about the scarcity of everything. No money, not enough “juicy” appointments to give out, no transparency or accountability. Yet it still had to allocate the little it had, logically to those political power brokers who pitched their camps with GMB before he became PMB. Those previously favoured by Goodluck and Ngozi, mostly from the south-east, saw their total dominance over the economy and government patronage ending. They started shouting for more appointments, threatening to re-declare Biafra. The other bunch making billions from “protecting” oil pipelines and installations responded to the threats to their lucrative contracts by getting their youth to go back to what they do best (bombing whatever they can), crippling oil exports, disrupting gas supply to power plants, and promising to create an independent republic of the Niger-Delta. The North-East is demanding a comprehensive response to recover from the recent Boko Haram insurgency, killings and wanton destructions. The legislators are padding the budgets with over a billion each for “constituency projects”. Other are placing themselves or their cronies, in key positions, for the coming elections.
Even the jobs and appointments for our youth are now subjects of endless debates. Some chap was in NITDA for a couple of months and “employed” hundreds without bothering with due-process. Another got about 400 of his “boys” into Inland Revenue virtually all of them from his “constituency”. Same illegalities took place at CBN, NNPC and elsewhere, with the Government turning a blind eye as if cronyism, nepotism and favouritism are not also corruption. Even governance itself seems to be a scramble. Atiku got his boys to take over both chambers of the National Assembly, while they kept complaining that Tinubu has hijacked the Executive. Other players are positioning themselves in other agencies and regulatory bodies.
Which takes us back to scarcity and choices. Things are this way only because government is fast becoming a zero-sum game: The more I have, the less you get. Despite the endless announcements there is no real commitment to baking bigger and better cakes, only to sharing what is now available. We must go back to basics. Seeing economics basically as making some choices from scarce resources is static-short-term thinking. The focus should be on how to expand what we have and even produce more, through better management, science and technology. We are told that this indeed is the vision, that by importing less, producing more of what we require internally, and exporting the balance, we should get out of the log-jam we have found ourselves. Only trouble is no one is saying how this will actually be achieved. First of all, we do not have any plan. Yes, we have seen some documents outlining Government wishes for Agriculture. Where is the Industrial Plan to create the demand for the expected increase in agricultural output? Where are the transport, manpower and R&D plans? The economy is a system, and you don’t just tinker with one side and expect nor reactions elsewhere. But, even assuming the new agricultural blueprint would work, a very big if, how do incomes, employment, the environment get impacted. When will the other agencies come on-board, or produce their own plans? Of course it is not Chief Audu Obe’s fault. Previously, National Planning, headed by the Vice-President, could summon all the ministries, departments and agencies and get them to come out with a common, consistent, cohesive and shared approach. Now everyone is summoned, told his bit of what the World Bank/IMF permit us to do, and is given an “envelop” for the year, under some Medium Term Expenditure nonsense that 90 percent of the implementers do not even understand. Ask the “experts” why China, India, Brazil, South Africa, Malaysia, etc. all have plans while we don’t and you won’t get any logically cohesive or rational answer. We have an economy in transition and all we are seeing are proposals for incremental gradualism.
Many friends kept asking me what exactly is going on and what can be done. My honest answer is that we, who are still convinced getting rid of the PDP was a correct decision, should adopt a multi-pronged approach. Those who think they can have the ears of some big-shot in government should keep on harping on the need to plan the economy, develop the real sectors in a coordinated manner, build infrastructure, strengthen institutions and the rule of law so as to transform this country forward. They should also help explain to Lai Mohammed, Femi Adesina, Garba Shehu, and even the ministers and special advisors, the need to do more in explaining the direction we are going, and why? This way we can decide for ourselves whether the sacrifices demanded from us today won’t be in vain.
But for those of us out of the “networks” we should join political parties, even the PDP if it can reinvent itself into a more inclusive, less corrupt entity. Those in APC should help explain to President Buhari to be proactive, to take over and guide his party towards developing programs and ideologies as well as control mechanisms, to ensure all elected leaders listen to us on whose behalf they are where they now are. While it is true that times are tough, and that even supporters of the Government are merely watching things, positive change is still possible.