2015 and APC’s presidential ticket

In previous dispensations, there were what could be described as buffer zones in the North and South, which helped the country to decide at the polls, which of the major political parties would form the government at the centre. Currently, however, the two main political parties, the ruling Peoples Democratic Party, (PDP) and the opposition […]

In previous dispensations, there were what could be described as buffer zones in the North and South, which helped the country to decide at the polls, which of the major political parties would form the government at the centre. Currently, however, the two main political parties, the ruling Peoples Democratic Party, (PDP) and the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) tend to have swallowed other smaller parties, and are poised for a fierce battle over the soul of the country.
As far as the parties are concerned, it is a case of winner-takes-all. However, the PDP seems to have already made up its mind on who will bear its flag.
In a move that surprises no one, President Goodluck Jonathan has gotten the party’s nod. The excitement is in the APC, where a list of contenders has emerged.
The impressive list includes General Muhammadu Buhari, a two-time presidential candidate and runner-up, as well as former head of state. His ticket is symbolised by his character and past military regime, which was intolerant of corruption. Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, an investment mogul and two-term vice president, is also a contender to the presidential ticket. The third, Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso, is the governor of Kano State, as well as former minister and federal legislator.
In the APC, there is indeed no shortage of powerful presidential candidates. But in many political circles, this is seen as the party’s major problem. While the ruling PDP has identified its rallying point early enough, the APC would have to brace up for the divisive implications of choosing from its most powerful aspirants. This is, however, a passing phase that could be tackled by focus and well calculated stock-taking.
The APC certainly needs to carefully weigh its contenders if it aims at victory, not just an impressive run at the polls. General Buhari is, without doubt, a very popular personality with a lot of followers, particularly in the North. His anti-graft image certainly attracts admiration amongst the Nigerian masses. But if these were the only attributes required to become president in Nigeria, the general would have been finishing his second term now. It is clear, therefore, that a lot more is needed to win against the PDP.
Buhari has not been able to turn his mass followership into an electoral victory for two reasons. First, even in northern Nigeria his main support base, the general lacks the requisite structure of personnel and logistics to convert sympathy into votes.
Also, there is the valid issue of his acceptability in the South, particularly the South-West, which is the stronghold of his own party, the APC. So, if Buhari secures the ticket, the North (excluding a large chunk of the North-Central) would, as usual, vote him en-masse. But unless what the APC is out to prove is the general’s popularity in the far North and not beat PDP in the polls, he may not be the party’s best choice.
Rabi’u Musa Kwnakwaso enjoys massive followership in his home, Kano, and to a lesser extent, some North-West states. His major development strides as governor and popularist posture makes his name ring a bell in national politics, as does his frontline role in opposition to President Jonathan. But his political reach-out to the South, especially again, APC’s
South-West, is not strong enough to ensure acceptability and support. Kwankwaso’s nomination may thus have the same symbolic value as that of Buhari but not secure electoral victory for the APC.
Some political commentators express misgivings about Atiku Abubakar’s popularity in his own geo-political base of the North, at least in compassion to General Buhari. It is, however, certain that in the PDP-unfriendly North, any other candidate, especially of the APC, would beat Goodluck Jonathan in the poll. Atiku, if nominated, possesses the strong structure to do that.
The former vice-president has more political and logistic capacity than both Buhari and Kwankwaso to run an efficient campaign. It is a structure he has nurtured since the 1980s, in the process, cultivating strong connections across geopolitical and socio-economic divides of Nigeria, a veritable prerequisite for nationwide support.
Dangiwa wrote from Rinin Tawaye, Sokoto.