2015 and the battle of Adamawa

Furthermore, Nuhu’s strongest opponents, Senator Muhammad Jibrilla Bindawa of the All Progressive Congress (APC) and Dr. Ahmed Modibbo of the Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM), do not have any extraordinary advantage over Nuhu.One cannot discuss Adamawa politics without delving into the sad nature of the politics of the state. Mother-tongue, geography, faith and the usual Nigerian […]

Furthermore, Nuhu’s strongest opponents, Senator Muhammad Jibrilla Bindawa of the All Progressive Congress (APC) and Dr. Ahmed Modibbo of the Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM), do not have any extraordinary advantage over Nuhu.
One cannot discuss Adamawa politics without delving into the sad nature of the politics of the state. Mother-tongue, geography, faith and the usual Nigerian money-politics are deeply rooted in the state’s polity and often shape the voting pattern in the state.
There is no doubt that Nuhu is a frontline contender in the Adamawa governorship race. He is relatively young, incorruptible, and, urbane. Still, mother-tongue; geography; faith and the usual Nigerian money-politics may determine how some areas will vote.
For instance, Adamawa central, a zone that has a very large voting population and predominantly Hausa-Fulani, is a cosmopolitan area and an opposition stronghold. Yola North and South and Girei have a very large voting population and mainly support APC. But the voting pattern may not be as predictive as the preponderance of the political parties. Senator Bindawa had been confident of sweeping all the Hausa-Fulani votes from this area but the emergence of Nuhu may have wiped that advantage off. Bindawa’s candidacy was meant to challenge Umaru Fintiri’s candidacy not a Ribadu’s.
In Song, Gombi and Hong the PDP’s Senatorial candidate is very strong in those three local government areas. Furthermore, the APC and PDM committed a major political blunder- both their governorship and senatorial candidates are individuals outside these localities. In fact, former Governor Nyako’s son, Abdul-Azeez Nyako, fly the APC senatorial flag for Adamawa central instead of his native zone- Adamawa south.
On the other hand, the chunk of the uproar about Nuhu’s candidacy was mainly from the Numan federation, because the area wanted a Christian governor. Though traditionally an overwhelmingly PDP area, the area may not be enthusiast, because their expectation was not met. And worse is that the APC is offering nothing to them and Bindawa does not seem to fit their bill. So the area will be in uncertainty that may lead to voter apathy.
The Chamba/Ganye chiefdom, Atiku’s locality, will be the biggest beneficiary of the governorship race- no matter who wins, one of their sons will be the deputy governor. The Chamba tribe has the largest voting population in Adamawa south. And have had the quest to produce a governor or deputy governor for long.
Adamawa north is devastated by the Boko Haram insurgency; those who are angry with the PDP over its failure to combat the insurgency may be reluctant to give Nuhu their votes. Even if he manages to win the area, Mubi will be an exception as they may vote their son- Bindawa. Despite being a ‘home boy’ in Adamawa north, Bindawa has very many difficult questions to answer arising from his four years as the senator representing the zone. Though, if Buhari wins, Bindawa may enjoy the bandwagon effect, but most people in Adamawa will vote candidates not party.
Dr. Ahmed Modibbo of the PDM with enormous war chest but he has alot of hurdles to cross.
Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, [email protected], 08036070980.