2015: Doubts over elections in Borno, Adamawa, Yobe

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), whose responsibility it is to make that happen confirmed it is ready. However, across some states, controversy over the collection of Permanent Voters Cards (PVCs) the key instrument in the impending exercise still rages. As prospective voters took to the streets in Lagos, Kano and others over alleged attempts […]

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), whose responsibility it is to make that happen confirmed it is ready. However, across some states, controversy over the collection of Permanent Voters Cards (PVCs) the key instrument in the impending exercise still rages. As prospective voters took to the streets in Lagos, Kano and others over alleged attempts to disenfranchise them during the just-concluded exercise, Maiha, a town 25 kilometers from Mubi in Adamawa State fell to Boko Haram insurgents. Mubi and Michika have long been in the insurgents’ grip after an offensive that affected several important towns in Adamawa, Borno and Yobe, carving its so-called ‘Caliphate’ replete with hoisted flags. At last count, 10 local government areas in the three affected states are in the hands of the insurgents, raising concerns about polls not holding in those areas.
In Borno State, out of the 27 local councils, many of them, including Bama, Gwoza, Konduga, Mafa, Dikwa, Gamboru-Ngala, Kala-Balge, Marte, Abadam, Monguno and Kukawa are not accessible due to the activities of the insurgents. Then in Yobe State, Gujba and Gulani local councils are under the grip of Boko Haram.
Concern heightened as more towns fell, less than three months to the elections. This saw a consequent mass exodus of people from at least 11 local government areas in Borno, about 10 in Adamawa and three in Yobe, to safer destinations. Affected people spoken to by Weekly Trust said they feel there is no way a credible election can take place with IDPs scattered across Nigeria, some as far as neighbouring countries.
Apart from the determination of the insurgents to keep launching attacks and capturing more territory, the risk to INEC officials and others, are issues that may affect polls in the region. There is a lot of doubt whether the elections will hold in the North-East or not, as the fate of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) in various camps, as well as those of them who have lost their temporary voters cards remains unclear. Also raised, is the question of how fresh voters could register under the atmosphere of insecurity. These are some of the obstacles that may not only disenfranchise the North-East, but also hinder the 2015 polls in the affected areas.  
However, INEC Chairman Professor Attahiru Jega, said they are preparing to conduct elections in all parts of Nigeria come 2015. Speaking through his Chief Press Secretary, Mr. Kayode Idowu, he asserted that the commission is ready to hold polls even in the troubled states. “An indication of its readiness is its mobilisation to conduct a governorship by-election in Adamawa state on October11th, 2014, before the court verdict stopping that election.  The Commission is optimistic that the security situation will improve and will not presume otherwise,” he said.
Also, Borno State’s Resident Electoral Commissioner (REC) Prof. Tukur Sa’ad expressed INEC’s readiness to conduct elections in the states and also avail IDPs the opportunity to cast their votes in an interview with the Weekly Trust. But he said the distribution of Permanent Voters Card (PVC) slated for November 28 in the areas will take place in “relatively safe” local government areas. He said the exercise will start in 12 out of 27 local government areas on 28, November, 2014 in the state. These include Maiduguri Metropolitan Council (MMC), Jere, Monguno, Gubio, Magumari and Mobbar. Others  are Biu, Kwaya Kusar, Nganzai, Bayo, Guzamala and Shanni.
“These are the local government areas we feel are safe for the exercise. After these 12 councils, we will again plan the strategy with the INEC headquarters on how to handle the remaining 15 other local governments. We hope to reach any local government that is safe,” Sa’ad said, also disclosing that the continuous voters’ registration will commence once the PVC distribution is done.
The Borno REC’s enthusiasm aside, not many are optimistic of the possibility of elections taking place in the violence-ravaged areas. One resident said it is wrong for INEC to remain unsure regarding elections in crisis locations, since elections are been held in crisis-stricken countries.
Sa’ad also agrees that elections take place in such countries. “Elections are holding in Afghanistan, Syria and all over the world. Insurgency cannot prevent us from finding a way where people can express their own wishes. I believe that the people of Borno deserve to participate in the forthcoming elections,” he said. But the following comment suggests that there is yet to be put in place a machinery to make that happen soon, with the elections inching closer. “We’ll discuss with INEC headquarters to find a solution so that nobody is denied his right to vote because it is not their choice that they are out of their towns.”
Sa’ad told Weekly Trust that they are in the process of consultation with traditional rulers and opinion leaders in the state to handle situations like those of local governments where large numbers of people have left and are now IDPs in various camps within and outside the state.
The Commission also confirmed that it was yet to work out modalities for the over 1 million IDPs.
The Director of the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD), Idayat Hassan, wondered how IDPs would vote, as they are outside their place of registration as she doubted the Commission’s preparedness to handle the issue of logistics during the elections in the affected areas, especially with the absence of National Youth Service Corps (NYSC), which it usually utilises as ad hoc staff. “If we assume INEC will deploy other non-NYSC members for electioneering, how will they access the affected communities? And knowing the ways terrorists work, what precludes Boko Haram from launching attacks on the queues while waiting to vote?”
Hassan called for immediate security threat assessment of the affected areas to determine whether the situation can change before the elections. She said: “We have to be proactive from this moment. A security threat assessment devoid of political leanings must be conducted, taking into cognizance the scenarios on ground and projecting into the future to see if these can change in the next 90 days or so before the elections.”
Analysts also believe INEC’s efforts to conduct the polls in the insurgency-affected areas amounts to solving only half of the problem, posing questions as to whether the people would feel safe to come out to exercise their civic responsibility.
A varsity don and political scientist, Dr. Tyodzua Atim of the Federal University, Dutsen-Ma, Katsina State, told Weekly Trust that the Boko Haram insurgency in the North-East isn’t only politicized, but designed to create instability to disenfranchise people of the region during the 2015 polls. “The insecurity challenges in the region have been politicized, with the FG taking 70 percent of the blame,” he said.
On his part, President Nigeria Voters Assembly (VOTAS) Comrade Mashood Erubami, said it is very doubtful if credible elections would be conducted in the North-East, come next year. “The basis for which the region was thrown into chaos by the forces not too distanced from the ruling party’s plan to make it conducive for unfair election that can be used to bring back a non-performing government like that of President Jonathan who has been excellently silent.”
The Executive Director Human Rights Monitor (HRM) Barrister Festus Okoye said the desire of all Nigerians is that elections should hold in all parts of Nigeria. “Unfortunately, elections will not hold in some of the Local Governments of Borno, Yobe and Adamawa states. It is a tragedy that the government that swore to provide security and assure the welfare of all Nigerians has let the people down. Thousands of Nigerians are now refugees in Cameroon, Chad and Niger Republic. Thousands of Nigerians are internally displaced and are in different households in different parts of Nigeria. The more vulnerable ones are in camps. There is no doubt that elections will hold in most parts of Nigeria but Nigerians should be sad that a substantial number in the North-East will be disenfranchised on account of insurgency.”
Okoye also told Weekly Trust that the Nigerian Government and security agencies must move and roll back the gains made by the insurgents to enable people return and pick up the pieces of their lives.  “It is also clear that if Nigeria does not hold elections in the North-East, a president elected under such conditions cannot claim to have a pan-Nigerian mandate. So it is clear that some Senatorial Districts, Federal and State Constituencies will not be represented at some tiers of government on account of insurgency,” he said.
But political activities continue in the affected states in one way or the other. Already, the state chapters of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Borno and Yobe have already endorsed governors Shettima and Ibrahim Gaidam for another term.
Last Tuesday, hundreds of supporters of APC in the stakeholders in Borno State, including national and state assembly members, caretaker chairmen, former commissioners and advisers, women and youths endorsed Governor Kashim Shettima to run for a second term in office. About 28 legislators had earlier purchased the forms for the expression of interest for the governor.
 A week earlier, the same massive crowd held a grand rally in Damaturu where similar forms, purchased by Yobe assembly members, were presented to Gaidam. The situation is the same in Adamawa State, where the APC has gone far in ensuring that it puts its house in order ahead of 2015.
The PDP in all the three states may likely showcase their candidates in a few days even as most federal and state legislators have also purchased their forms, indicating interest to contest. Some PDP stalwarts in Borno have also thrown their hats into the gubernatorial race, a clear indication that they are optimistic elections would hold.  However, most politicians from the affected areas can only carry out their campaigns in Maiduguri, raising more doubt.
In a recent interview, Senator Mohammed Ndume (APC Borno South) said the result of the presidential election will be questionable if a large chunk of the country was disenfranchised. “I want to know what will happen to the results if election does not take place in about five states seriously affected by the insurgency,” he said. He also said: “There is only a provision [in the Constitution] which says if a country is at war, elections can be suspended but we are not talking about the whole country, it is Borno and some other states that have problems. And the fact remains that our right to vote cannot be taken away and it cannot be abrogated.”
A security expert and associate member of International Foundation for Protection Officers (IFPO), Mr. Lekan Ojo dismissed any possibility of INEC conducting 2015 polls in the troubled North-East, unless the insecurity challenges are ended. “As the situation is aggravating every day, with no sign of any improvement for the better, I think it will amount to self-deception if we are expecting any election there, come 2015.” He added, “It is becoming clearer by the day that we lack the military capacity to confront Boko Haram and it’s like our government has gotten to its peak and exhausted its human and material capacity to fight the terrorists.”
Chairman of the Transition Monitoring Group (TMG) Comrade Ibrahim M. Zikirullahi advocated for the formation of a Government of National Unity (GNU) if elections would not hold in the affected states. “In the end, if elections are not held in these three states as a result of what is looking like a situation of contrived insecurity due to government refusal to deal squarely with this problem, we will call for the formation of a GNU by all political parties, until security is restored and elections held in those states,” he urged.
Weekly Trust learnt that with a few months left before elections, there are no tangible security plans in place at affected areas. Security sources say a lot of the needful is currently mired in bureaucratic red tape. “No-one seems to know exactly what will happen. As I’m speaking to you now, there is nothing on ground and we’re yet to receive any directives, especially on the three states talked about,” a high ranking security official disclosed.
“I’m heading to Kaduna to sit the elections out with my extended family,” said a middle-aged resident in an IDP camp in Borno, who said while she’s tempted to attempt to vote, she has decided to abandon the process altogether. “Only a living person can vote,” she concluded.