2015: empty rhetoric and the coming storm

For weeks now, the sentiment of religion, particularly in Northern Nigeria where Christian populations could swing the votes towards incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan or the Muslim population ensures a solid win for Muhammadu Buhari. I doubt that in the history of Nigeria, it has ever been this close to call. It would also be safe […]

For weeks now, the sentiment of religion, particularly in Northern Nigeria where Christian populations could swing the votes towards incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan or the Muslim population ensures a solid win for Muhammadu Buhari. I doubt that in the history of Nigeria, it has ever been this close to call. It would also be safe to say never in the history of the country has the political bickering carried out with so much rancour. Sadly the issues so far are frivolous. The last week has been preoccupied by the fact that President Goodluck Jonathan given a rating of substandard performance by the opposition has a Doctorate Degree, whereas the contender General Muhammadu Buhari has been unable to produce his evidence of attendance of primary education and secondary school education, as against the provisions of the Constitution on basic minimum education required.
The APC while thinking of how to deal with this, attempted to change the Christian public mindset on allegations of Islamic fundamentalism against Muhammadu Buhari, but got its knickers in a twist when the pictures they used of Buhari apparently in Church prayer, had him with his cap on and sparked off another uproar. These two issues have dominated the campaign rhetoric, more of the supporters than of even the party leaders given the new found communication power of social media.
Yet while rating the President dismally low on performance indicators despite his high qualifications, promote Muhammadu Buhari as the only hope given his track record, and unquestionable incorruptibility, and impeccable record of diligent service to the nation.
This should not be so. Nigerians ought to debate the substantial issues of the national question, the economy, now gone to the dogs, and the fundamental issue how to deal with the Boko Haram insurgency. There is a deliberate effort by the political class to avoid the discussion of the election issues, because each one of them could be hurt by the trend.
It must be said that the social media has overheated the polity, and naturally, raised more fears of a bloody post election violence worse than that experienced in 2011, and regardless of the outcome of the election. In President Jonathan, we have a rock that cannot be moved, and in rocket speed towards that rock is unstoppable Muhammadu Buhari. What happens when these two worlds collide? The question specifically asked is what will happen if Muhammadu Buhari does not win?
What will happen if Buhari loses really and truly depends on President Goodluck Jonathan. He is responsible for the conduct of a credible election, and already, many things have gone awry. President Goodluck allowed himself a campaign head start through the TAN campaign messages. I believe that the funding (N21bn raised in one fundraising) is an embarrassment and may need to be probed, and will be if Buhari wins. The undue advantage is unfair.
Also, INEC must be seen to conduct a transparent and credible election that proves that a winner won, and a loser lost. This means broad daylight transparency, not one in which there are nocturnal night flights and advantageous curfews with a connivance with security agents that see only ruling party agents holding curfew passes. The peace of Nigeria is not dependent on Buhari losing, but on Goodluck through INEC and the Security agents, ensuring conduct of elections whose outcome will be as indisputable as June 12. Northerners incidentally, were the greater champions of justice to Chief MKO Abiola.
Adamawa:  Bindow Who?
 If Hon. Mohammed Umaru Jubrilla (Bindow) wins the forthcoming Governorship of Adamawa, he would be doing so with advantage of clear tail winds in his flight to J1 Dougirei, the Adamawa Government House. The first arises from his defeat of the Atiku Abubakar collective in two transparent and keenly contested primaries. The gap was so wide that not a few signals were sent to a polity, reeling from a political crisis of the 7 years of the morass of the Murtala Nyako rule. The other speed agent to Bindow is the ongoing feuds in the PDP, the fractionalisation of the party, and the clear possibility of a protest vote. It certainly will not be on any known track record because although Bindow took the Northern Senatorial Seat, hitherto occupied by Prof. Iya Abubakar, and Col. Muhammad Mana to name just few, hardly any Adamawa indigene remembers Bindow as having said anything ever, in the hallowed chambers of the Senate. Bindow’s track record of achievement is personal, itself coasting on tailwinds of his great entrepreneurial father of blessed memory. His political pole vault from ground zero to the Senate was solely on the look of favour that Governor Murtala with absolute PDP power, gave him. Easy nomination, easy election. But on his own, Bindow spoilt Atiku’s game plan by outpacing the collective of the political juggernaut at the APC Primaries.
In two month’s time, elections will hold and Adamawa State could well be a witness to a Bindow Administration. This is dependent on the factors of the issues in the forthcoming election in Adamawa.
Adamawa politics run on fault lines of religion, ethnicity, and class. Bindow’s chances are not affected by religion yet, because though a Muslim, he has managed to secure overwhelming Christian support from predominantly Christian enclaves of the State. He in fact defeated Boss Mustapha in the Christian battle ground Local Government Areas.
On ethnicity, the vile haters of the Fulani have not seen Bindow as a Fulani person, choosing instead to believe that he is Njanyi from Maiha Local Government. This is a good omen. Here, Bindow may in fact enjoy chance wind in his sails as a backlash of what is seen in the PDP as the tactless and brazen “imposition” of Nuhu Ribadu on grieving aspirants and the checkmated State EXCO. This is especially given the bad name that Murtala Nyako gave in his misuse of ethnicity and religion since he was without a political structure, and needed to build one. Bindow has tactfully kept distance of kingpins of the Nyako collective, namely Kobis Thimnu who was beaten at the primaries, erstwhile “ikon Allah” Kugama the controversial former PDP Chairman.
There may be game changers like Engineer Marcus Gundiri, House Speaker Umaru Fintiri, and former UBEC Executive Secretary Ahmed Mohammed Modibbo, whose emergence through defection from PDP to other parties could really change the narrative.