2015: Tambuwal and the Wamakko factor

The events that transpired between June 2011 and now could reshape the history of the cat-and-dog relationship between the legislature and the executive beginning from 1960. On several occasions, the Speaker has been absent at some critical party meetings and just recently while the Tony Aninih-led PDP reconciliation committee visited Sokoto for fence-mending, it was […]

The events that transpired between June 2011 and now could reshape the history of the cat-and-dog relationship between the legislature and the executive beginning from 1960. On several occasions, the Speaker has been absent at some critical party meetings and just recently while the Tony Aninih-led PDP reconciliation committee visited Sokoto for fence-mending, it was shocking that he was absent but surprisingly surfaced at the stakeholders meeting of the All Progressive Congress (APC) with Governor Aliyu Magatakarda Wamakko.
For those who know details of the feud between Tambuwal and the PDP on one hand and Tambuwal and the Presidency on the other, his appearance at the APC meeting in Sokoto on October 20, 2014 did not come as a big surprise. What surprised observers, however, is how he was introduced as a long-standing APC supporter. His appearance at the October 20 APC meeting in Sokoto put to rest speculation that he would vie for the presidency but also opened a new chapter about his interest to succeed Governor Wamakko come 2015.
Strong evidence that Tambuwal is warming up to take over from Wamakko as the next governor include when a citation was read at the state polytechnic where five illustrious sons of the state were given merit awards. “The Speaker House of Reps Alhaji Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, CFR one of today’s recipients, requires no introduction neither here at home or beyond the shores of our borders. As an illustrious son of the Caliphate he has taken up the challenge of national leadership foisted on him by his esteemed colleagues who rallied round and almost unanimously elected him Hon. Speaker of the Lower House over a year ago,” read the governor.
As a keen political observer, that powerful citation appears to be a declaration for the governorship seat which Tambuwal is warming up to sit on. However, the part that interested me most was when Wamakko summed up his citation on the Speaker this way: “Hon. Aminu Waziri is indeed eminently qualified for Sokoto State Government Merit Award most especially for earning the support and confidence of the diverse replica of Nigerians elected as Hon. Representatives of their people into the lower house as their Speaker and leader. On our part we have quite willingly encouraged him with prayers, and will continue to bear the brunt of virtually surrendering such a jewel to the more onerous demands of national service in the knowledge that benefits are for all Nigerians bound together in freedom, peace and unity.”
In the political history of Sokoto State, no incumbent has had the privilege of having his anointed choice elected, because apart from Bafarawa who tried in 2007 and failed those before him never had the opportunity to do so. In 1981, Mohammed Shehu Kangiwa died in office and his deputy, Dr Garba Nadama took over and finished that tenure. Nadama was however elected governor in 1983 but his tenure was short-lived because of a military coup. In 1991, Malam Yahaya Abdulkarim was elected governor but could not finish his tenure as a result of another military coup that brought Abacha to power. However, Bafarawa was lucky to complete two terms in office but his anointed candidate Maigari Dingyadi was floored by Wamakko who had a running battle with Bafarawa when they were governor and deputy respectively.
Wamakko is yet to officially endorse Tambuwal as his preferred candidate, but political analysts believe there is no smoke without fire. A careful analysis of 2012’s citation on Tambuwal and recent political events in the state are pointers to the direction and very soon the political climate would be clear for those who predicted this union to be proved right and those who have been opposing it to be told that in politics, nothing is impossible. Going through the list of governorship aspirants in the APC, Tambuwal who is yet to officially declare, appears to be the surest banker of them all.
What’s in Tambuwal’s favour includes the fact that as Speaker, he does not need any introduction or political marketing. He doesn’t even need a campaign but his supporters will push him to do that. As we await Wamakko to anoint Tambuwal or perhaps as we await the APC and the PDP to come out with their consensus candidates, the news on the front burner in Sokoto and Nigeria entirely is the awaited official defection of Speaker Tambuwal from the PDP to the APC.
The Wamakko factor in Sokoto politics is still visible and dominant and it would be difficult for the PDP to break it now. In the last seven years, the governor has single-handedly maintained a political structure that will be hard to crack. His performance and humble nature as well as other traits have all endeared him to the people and whoever he anoints as his successor is sure to be the next governor. The PDP is a house divided and if Tambuwal is to contest under the PDP, in spite of his popularity, he may face difficult challenges internally because the Bafarawa factor is no longer relevant in Sokoto politics. As for the APC aspirants who have shown interest before Tambuwal stepped in, they should be grateful to Wamakko for where they all are today.
As for Mr. Speaker, state-level politics is dirtier than what goes on in the House of Reps because every local voter believes he is part of the success story and should be heard. So listen, think and act by applying fairness so that like your mentor, your story will have a happy ending.   
Mohammed wrote in from Abuja