2015: Year of the long knives?

In modern usage, the phrase ‘the knives are out’ refers to a situation when people are being unpleasant about someone – or in an extreme case, trying to harm that person. Saying that the ‘the knives are out for Mr A’, suggests that Mr A has come under a barrage of criticisms or has made […]

In modern usage, the phrase ‘the knives are out’ refers to a situation when people are being unpleasant about someone – or in an extreme case, trying to harm that person. Saying that the ‘the knives are out for Mr A’, suggests that Mr A has come under a barrage of criticisms or has made himself odious. Using the metaphor of long knives to refer to 2015 suggests expectations of violence, upheavals and even Armageddon consequent upon the presidential election during the year.
There have been several apocalyptic portraitures of the presidential election that will take place during this year. There are at least five main reasons why 2015 is generally feared to be a year of the long knives:
One, elections are generally anarchic in the country because of the zero-sum nature of our politics, the centrality of the state and the role of state power as the critical ingredient of wealth accumulation, elite formation and the dispensation of privileges.
Two, the successful formation of APC against all odds and predictions meant the coming into being of a viable opposition party that could give the PDP a run for its money. APC defied all odds, including a generalized apprehension that selecting the party’s presidential flag bearer would be its Achilles heels. While it is not yet Uhuru for the APC, there is no doubt that PDP is getting into the election in a weaker position than it was in 2011. For the first time in the country’s political history, you have an opposition party that has structures across the country. The APC is especially strong in the populous North-west, North-east and south-west. Some of the relevant questions that may help crystallize the likely outcome of the presidential elections include: How will our fault lines of religion, ethnicity and regionalism interface in the contest between the APC and the PDP, which peeled of rhetoric, are basically two sides of the same coin? Will certain critical elites in the North support Buhari’s candidacy, and if they don’t, will their non-support be significant enough to sway victory to Jonathan? Given the current anti Jonathan sentiments in the north, will Jonathan count on PDP states in the north to deliver the votes to him? With the south-west regarded as an APC stronghold, and Governors Amaechi and Okorocha holding forte for the party in Rivers and Imo State respectively, can Jonathan still count on solid Christian and southern support? Will the new APC platform provided to General Buhari and the aggressive rebranding of his candidacy be enough to allay the old suspicions of him in the south and among Christians? And what role would the power of incumbency play in determining the outcome of the election?
Three, there are fears that the presidential elections may stoke the latent tensions between the north and south. The relations between the north and south, which were ever characterized by mutual suspicion, hit a new low in 2011 with the decision of President Jonathan to contest the 2011 elections. Some people in the north felt that the decision short-changed  the region of its chance of completing its ‘turn’ of producing the president of the country for eight  years after Obasanjo had taken the south’s ‘turn’ of serving for eight years. For some in the north, another four years for President Jonathan would mean that in the current civilian dispensation (which started in May 1999), the south will have served for 17 years while the north will have served for only three. Southern irredentists however also counter that in the 39 years between 1960 (when the country got its independence) and 1999, the north ruled for about 35 years to the south’s four years. Remarkably the two main candidates in the presidential elections reflect the main contending fault lines of region and religion.
Four, there are those who believe that America predicted that Nigeria would disintegrate in 2015 – even though no one has been able to come forward with any concrete evidence on where and when the so-called  prediction was made. For such people, 2015 is the predicted year of the country’s Armageddon.
Five, is the tendency for elections to aggravate the structures of conflicts in newly democratizing societies such as ours. Not only do newly democratizing societies retain authoritarian impulses from their dictatorial past, the various nationalities that make up the country often have institutionalized and bottled up memories of hurt and injustice. Elections, especially ones in which stakes are as high as they appear to be now, often unleash such bottled up feelings.
Though I believe the dangers of post- election violence in the Muslim north is real if Buhari loses the election and that the chances of renewed militancy in the restive Niger Delta is  equally very high if Jonathan loses, there are several reasons why I believe the doomsday predictions are unlikely to happen:
First, Nigeria has been a master of hanging on the precipice for a very long time such that hanging on a cliff has become the country’s comfort zone.  I recall that the American journalist Karl Maier believed that the unravelling of the country  was imminent and consequently  titled his book: This House Has fallen: Nigeria in Crisis.  More than 14 years after the book was first published, Nigeria is still standing, even if many of its political problems remain largely unresolved.
Second, there is a feeling that our democracy is actually maturing despite its noise.   For instance compared to the impunities that characterized the Obasanjo era, including political assassinations, political imposition of favoured candidates and garrison commander/do-or-die politics, one can argue that our democracy is actually evolving very fast and that many are gradually developing democratic ethos and sentiments. For instance, compared to before, the electorate seem to now respect people who lose gallantly and display spirit of sportsmanship. The sour loser syndrome is gradually getting out of fashion. In this sense, though the likely outcome of the election will be contentious, the emerging new spirit among the electorate may not be favourable to very protracted contentions over the outcome of the elections.
The biggest winner in the 2015 election is Buhari – irrespective of the outcome of the election itself. Though Buhari had previously unsuccessfully contested for the presidency three times, there has, until now, been very little effort to market him beyond the Muslim north where he has cultic followers.  This paradoxically helped to accentuate the label of him in the south as a northern irredentist or Muslim fanatic. Of course some of the retired General’s gaffes did not help matters.  Now the APC provides him a broader platform that makes it possible for him to travel to different parts of the country and be welcomed and lionized by leading regional elites. And with this Buhari is acquiring the image of a national leader accepted by various regional factions of the elites. This contrasts with earlier perceptions of him as a lone ranger, one incapable of working in concert with others  to achieve a common goal. Coterminous with the advantage of a national platform provided to him, there is also a serious re-branding of the Buhari brand.  I was very impressed with the photo of him on several websites wearing a suit – and looking like a respected school principal.  I never knew I would ever see Buhari wear a suit. The retired general now also wears the traditional attire of different ethnic groups he visits – something his handlers in the past would probably have regarded as hypocrisy.  The popular perception of the old Buhari among his admirers was that like the late Chief Obafemi Awolowo, he did not believe in “the little lies that people call diplomacy”. This and his numerous gaffes were naively marketed by his admirers as political virtues.  
Buhari’s re-branding goes beyond new sartorial acquisitions. In the presidential debate in 2011, Buhari seriously underperformed. He was inarticulate and did not display much knowledge about both domestic and international affairs. The re-invented Buhari is however different. In Port Harcourt on 6 January 2015 to flag off his presidential campaign, the re-branded Buhari was in his new elements.  Wearing the south-south traditional attire with their traditional fedora hat to match, Buhari was an orator.  He spoke eloquently and without his trademark stern demeanour or reading from any prepared speech   Time will however tell how this re-branding of Buhari will impact on the elections.