2019: MY VOTE IS…(9)

In continuation of our series MY VOTE IS…FOR or AGAINST (also available at https://saturdaycolumn.blogspot.com/ and https://linkedin.com/in/bala-muhammad-0784384), today we discuss WHAT IF…as we head towards Second Round Governorship Elections next week in the ‘Inconclusive States’. Readers should note this series will, in sha Allah, continue beyond these elections and they could still continue sending in their […]

In continuation of our series MY VOTE IS…FOR or AGAINST (also available at https://saturdaycolumn.blogspot.com/ and https://linkedin.com/in/bala-muhammad-0784384), today we discuss WHAT IF…as we head towards Second Round Governorship Elections next week in the ‘Inconclusive States’. Readers should note this series will, in sha Allah, continue beyond these elections and they could still continue sending in their 100-word contributions on the political future of this country.

COLUMNIST – MY VOTE IS…For A Five-Year Single Term: What wouldn’t the following Governors not give today for a five-year (or even six-year) single term for all executive positions – Lagos’ Ambode; Kano’s Ganduje; Bauchi’s MA Abubakar; Adamawa’s Jibrila Bindow, Sokoto’s Tambuwal, Plateau’s Lalong and Benue’s Ortom. If there were a single five-year term for the president and the governors, the current serious embarrassment facing these governors wouldn’t have arisen.

‘Second Term’ is the most dangerous period of Nigeria’s political life. It is a do-or-die-affair. This Column has been shouting itself hoarse over the years that our constitution be amended to only allow executives to spend only one term and leave the space for peace and tranquility to prevail. Whatever number of people murdered in this election cycle, at least 90% died because someone wants to go for a second term – the rest for supporting or opposing an anointed of a ‘retiring’ governor.

One of the states going into the make-up elections of Saturday March 23 is Kano. Here, we are faced with a very dangerous situation, and we are between the proverbial rock and hard place, or between the devil and the deep blue sea or, in fact, between two terrible horrible choices. The stakes are very high. The opposition Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, was winning the earlier election when the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, was thrown a lifeline by INEC’s operational rule of “where the cancelled votes are more than the difference between the winner and the runner-up, there shall be a re-run…”

It will be much easier for the PDP to win this as, in order to win, the ruling APC has to overcome a deficit of more than 25,000 votes and win a further majority from the over 100,000 cancelled votes now up for grabs. We all believe that with Allah nothing is impossible. And in the murky and murderous Nigerian political waters, almost anything is possible also. Therefore, Kano citizens will go into enforced purdah next week because the thugs of Devil 1 will try to outkill the thugs of Devil 2 – Allah Ya kiyaye!

Current Kano Central Senator Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso, leader of the Kwankwasiyya Movement embedded within the PDP, is a factor in the opposition party’s good showing. Not its presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar. Not even its gubernatorial candidate Abba Kabir Yusuf, Kwankwaso’s anointed candidate, former commissioner and, many say, son-in-law. Though the more than one million votes of the PDP are written in Abba’s name, it is actually Kwankwaso’s votes by hook, crook and wuju-wuju.

Many argue that the fact of the matter of this Kano election is that it was more a vote AGAINST incumbent Governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, and not necessarily FOR Kwankwaso or Abba, who was an X (unknown quantity) only a few weeks ago. Whatever it may be, we are in that quandary. Second term has landed us in the deep blue sea. Allah Ya fito da mu!

How does one define this Kwankwaso? First, he has what many politicians lack – CONFIDENCE. During the presidential and national assembly elections, PDP didn’t win a single seat out of 28; Buhari roundly defeated Atiku and APC took all three Senators and 24 House of Representatives seats. Any simple politician would have seen the no-win writing on the wall, but not Madugu (Leader of the Caravan), as Kwankwaso is respectfully addressed by his followers. He just accelerated.

Second thing going for their Madugu is FOCUS. It seemed he did not care about any other position but the governorship. He focused on it. He snapped his teeth tightly, held firmly, and didn’t lose focus. And thirdly, Kwankwaso has TENACITY. As governor from 1999, Kwankwaso was himself roundly defeated back in 2003 after only one term by then newcomer Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau, public servant and school teacher-turned politician and now Kano Central Senator-elect. This tenacity shook Kano in 2007; and he returned in 2011 to clinch the election by a hair’s breadth against Shekarau’s anointed, Salihu Sagir Takai (who contested this year’s election on the platform of the Peoples Redemption Party, PRP, coming third).

Sadly, it is not all positive for the Madugu. His legendary ARROGANCE leading to POOR RETENTION OF FRIENDS AND ASSOCIATES may be his undoing, as happened this year. As a matter of fact, the Ganduje Government is a Kwankwasiyya Government, and it only became a faction when the Madugu wanted to have undue influence in an administration he always proclaims to have brought into being.

Like many politicians, Kwankwaso is not a good manager of men (unlike, say, Tinubu, the Jagaban Borgu). Because of Madugu’s legendary arrogance, coarseness and harshness, almost all the leading lights of the Kwankwasiyya Movement abandoned him, beginning with Ganduje. And then, most significantly, Kwankwaso is accused of dabbling into the esoteric sciences, citing his insistence on that red cap.

YUSUFU MUSA, ABU ZARIA ([email protected]): STILL ON KANO POLITICS – Any presidential candidate that loses Kano may not actualise his dream. Kano is the second in INEC voter register, the first being Lagos. But register is not the most important factor – turnout is. In that, Kano has always come first. It is instructive to note that Kano gives a politician almost equal votes with the five Ibo-speaking South Eastern States combined. Buhari may not have won 2015 had he not got those two million Kano votes. The number of votes Buhari garnered in the concluded elections is more than a half of what he polled in Tinubu’s South West Zone.

Ganduje promised five million votes for Buhari (but forgot to allocate a figure for himself, smug in the belief that the Buhari SAK factor would continue to play). Though Buhari didn’t get five million, the Kano votes he got left the opposition hopeless. Buhari’s victory in the state instilled confidence in Ganduje and his allies of winning in gubernatorial and state assembly elections. Sadly, Ganduje underestimated the impact of those video clips which allegedly showed him pocketing dollars ‘with a smile’. ‘Didn’t he have someone to collect for him’, our Anti-Corruption Leader Who Art In The Villa mused the other day.

Fear has taken over the APC. Not for Ganduje per se, but for the future of Kano votes in 2023 when Buhari is no longer contesting. The party’s stakeholders are holding endless meetings to ensure the survival of Ganduje next Saturday. If, as expected, APC zones the presidential ticket to the South West, Tinubu or whoever would really need Kano’s votes. The question remains, will the APC survive up to 16 years like the PDP?

The outcome of Saturday’s rerun in Kano will be key.

COLUMNIST – THE SONG OF “AYYE GWAGGO!”: Kano is unique in its everything. One of the reasons many feel Ganduje lost was the alleged involvement of his wife, a PhD like him, in the affairs of government. Popularly known as Gwaggo (meaning ‘Aunty’), she is now the subject of a new, spontaneous and popularly-created song titled ‘Ayye Gwaggo…’ Based on a popular Hausa girls’ song of “Ayye Mama! Ayye Mama! Mamaye Iye!…” the new one is “Ayye Gwaggo! Ayye Gwaggo! Gwaggoye Iye! Ayye Gwaggo ta tafi ke nan…Gwaggoye Iye…”

If you don’t speak Hausa, ask someone who does!

And may Allah help us choose the lesser evil among these gladiators. Amin. Amin. Amin.