2020: A projection
Welcome to a new decade and a new year. I pray that the future will be more peaceful and bountiful. I thought I should undertake the risky endeavour of sharing my ideas on key issues and matters that will be significant to our lives as Nigerians in the new year. President Buhari President Buhari is […]
Welcome to a new decade and a new year. I pray that the future will be more peaceful and bountiful. I thought I should undertake the risky endeavour of sharing my ideas on key issues and matters that will be significant to our lives as Nigerians in the new year.
- President Buhari
President Buhari is now into the first year of his second term, with huge powers to make up for shortfalls in his first term, and opportunities to improve a legacy. He has said he will not escort the ambitions of any politician who has not deserved a popular mandate, and he will fix a badly broken electoral process.
If President Buhari plans to undertake anything of lasting value, he has to make maximum use of the coming year. He will be under tremendous pressure to resist the pull towards endorsing, in whatever form, a successor, or stay out of the fray altogether. He will need to successfully douse the rumour that he has ambitions for a third term, and resist being dragged into titanic battles that will commence in 2020. That will make him effectively a lame duck president after 2020. He could be convinced to play a statesman role and help his party win the 2023 elections, but this will merely deepen the party’s polarization.
There is little prospect for a major shift in priorities of the administration or shake-up of key actors in governance, economy or national security.
- APC, PDP
The two major parties will go through major tremors in 2020, a year that will signal the real commencement of the 2023 elections. It is unlikely that chairmen of both parties will survive major assaults on their positions from forces that see little future for their ambitions if they stay beyond the next year. Ambitious politicians in the APC who want to succeed Buhari will test the grip of Oshiomhole on the party, and it is unlikely that he can avoid being a major source of division in the party. The likelihood of a split in the party will be signaled in 2020.
PDP will be shaken to its foundations by quarrels over the zoning formula and recriminations over strengths of the party under the leadership of Secondus. There are powerful and ambitious politicians from the north who will test the resolve of politicians from the south to uphold a badly-damaged zoning formula. The party will be divided between taking advantage of the looming civil war in the APC and putting out the fires in its own yard. By the end of 2020, the two major parties are likely to look like two gladiators who had fought themselves into shreds. This, however, will not necessarily provide the setting for the emergence of a third option. The two major parties are too-deeply rooted in resources and spoils of a corrupt political and electoral system to yield to new comers.
- The Economy
The basic outlook for the economy is unlikely to improve in 2020. Inflation will remain high; foreign direct investment will remain low, and unemployment and poverty levels are likely to rise. Productive activities will suffer further decline owing to deteriorating quality of basic infrastructure and weak macro policies. Traditional sources of revenue will remain the same, with little difference in performance of major revenue-generating agencies. Budget performance will remain poor largely because the budgeting process is still structured on unrealistic assumptions and projections and managed with weak political will.
The strong determination of the Buhari administration to borrow an additional $23b will be a major focus of interest, and will be a test of the touted warm relations between President Buhari and a legislature controlled by his party. Substantial grounds have been laid to improve the chances that the request will be granted, including approval for a N37b allocation for renovation of the National Assembly, approval of all constituency projects and a mark-up of the budget by the legislators. The loan issue will generate huge passion in a nation becoming alarmed at the level of borrowing by the administration and the absence of adequate transparency in the management of public resources.
The debates over the utility of the closure of the border and uncertainties over its lifespan will intensify in the early part of the year. Absence of key reforms at the ports and effective measures to extract maximum, long-term benefits from the closures will tilt opinions against it. ECOWAS francophone and a few other members could isolate Nigeria with the floating of a new currency that will truncate long-term plans for a more inclusive one.
- Security
National security is likely to continue to be a major challenge. In spite of efforts to boost morale and equipment of fighting troops in the northeast, factions of insurgents have remained active, and will continue to attack areas of relative weaknesses of Nigerian troops. ISWAP in particular is raising its profile in the Sahel and Nigeria in the manner it undertakes eye-catching attacks. Its new tactic of targeting and murdering Christians in particular will re-introduce faith politics in perceptions of the conflict in 2020. There is little prospect that the Nigerian government will embrace political options in resolving this conflict, in spite of its increasing potential to isolate hardline factions from others that are amenable to non-military options. Funding the fight against the insurgency will continue to be a major challenge in the year, and populations living under, or with insurgents may increase. The year 2020 is unlikely to register a major difference in the balance of forces or the damage of the insurgency on Nigerians. UK, EU and the USA will be engrossed in foundational matters of their own to be of greater assistance in the fight against a resurgent threat.
- Reforms
The year 2020 will be the best period for the administration of President Buhari to push through critical reforms around the electoral process, particularly relating to processes, abuse of state agencies during elections and violence. Other vital areas needing reforms are public procurement and fuel subsidy and the fight against corruption, but it is doubtful if there will be the will to reform all these will be available.
- Law and Order and Public Safety
Unless he commences a genuine rebuilding of policing which has clearly collapsed, President Buhari will leave a legacy of spreading crimes of kidnapping and banditry that have blossomed under his watch. In spite of the attraction of engaging state governors and a broad spectrum of respected opinion on improving the quality of public safety, the President’s conservative instinct is likely to limit him to raising the numbers of federal police as the sole initiative in improving the security of citizens’ life and property. The military is likely to continue to be stressed with additional responsibility for maintaining internal security. After the releases of Dasuki and Sowore, achieved under tremendous pressure, the nation is unlikely to see a major shift in the manner the administration deals with persons and groups which it sees as representing threats to national security.
- The World Cup
Nigeria could qualify for the 2020 World cup in Qatar. Poor preparations and massive internal weakness are likely to consign the nation to participation only.
HAPPY NEW YEAR
Abubakar can be reached at