2023 Presidency: The odds against Tinubu

It’s no longer news that the national leader of the ruling All Progressives Congress, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, has vowed not to leave any stone unturned to actualise his age-long dream of becoming the president of Nigeria in 2023. Tinubu, a former governor of Lagos State from 1999 to 2007, has grown his political structures to […]

It’s no longer news that the national leader of the ruling All Progressives Congress, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, has vowed not to leave any stone unturned to actualise his age-long dream of becoming the president of Nigeria in 2023. Tinubu, a former governor of Lagos State from 1999 to 2007, has grown his political structures to one of the biggest in modern day Nigeria.

Tinubu has a firm grip of the structures of South West as his disciples are visible in all the states as governors, heads of agencies, party leaders among others. If anyone is to be feared as an intimidating force in the 2023 general elections, that person is Asiwaju. So when Tinubu declared his intention to run for office of the president, everyone knew the eagle has taken off and it will definitely soar very high.

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However, there are many rivers Tinubu will have to cross. First, many Nigerians, especially the younger generation, from all nooks and crannies are calling Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, a disciple of Tinubu, to contest the 2023 presidential election. Over 10 groups have launched their campaign for the vice president to join the presidential race. Their belief is that Prof Osinbajo has credibly carried out his responsibilities as vice president to President Muhammadu Buhari and should be allowed to take over. If Osinbajo picks the nomination form, this will definitely split the Tinubu camp.

Another river is that of health. Nigerians are complaining that Tinubu’s health is not up to what is needed by a digital president in a country like Nigeria. Even though Tinubu has dismissed the issue, the excuse he gave that he is running for president and not a marathon, didn’t go down well with some Nigerians. The state of health of a president and his age have a lot to do with his ability to govern.

Then comes the third river which is the issue of moral justification. Asiwaju and Osinbajo are from the South West. Between 1999 and 2023, the zone has held sway in the presidency for 16 years. Chief Olusegun Obasanjo was president for eight years and Prof Yemi Osinbajo SAN has been vice president for another eight years. If the South is agitating for power shift, what moral justification does it have to be hell bent on being the part of the region of the south to produce the president? The South East has never produced a president nor a vice, the South South has done it for eight years while the South West has had 16 years.

It is often said that he who comes to equity must come with clean hands. If the presidency will be going to the southern part of Nigeria on the basis of zoning, Bola Ahmed Tinubu should rather be seen as the projector in chief of fair play. The failure of Tinubu to speak for other regions of the South, such as the South East that has not benefitted from the presidency since the return of democracy, will make him appear to be a self-centred person.  

As activities for the APC primary elections are coming closer, if  Bola Tinubu will be contesting for president, he will definitely face challenges from his inner house, his health and the moral justification for a Yoruba president when the South East is yet to produce one.

Martin Iorsamber, Convener, Movement for Advancement and Peaceful Nigeria