2025 Budget: Many questions unanswered

Finally, on Wednesday, December 18, 2024, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu presented the federal government’s budget to the National Assembly for next year. That ended the speculation as to when the most important document in the running of the government would be made public as this year draws to an end. Yet, despite the delay, the […]

Finally, on Wednesday, December 18, 2024, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu presented the federal government’s budget to the National Assembly for next year. That ended the speculation as to when the most important document in the running of the government would be made public as this year draws to an end. Yet, despite the delay, the budget raised more questions than it provided answers to.

Christened ‘Budget of Restoration: Securing Peace, Rebuilding Prosperity’, the plan is designed, according to the president, to retool and revamp the country’s socio-economic fabric, in continuation of the administration’s 18-month-old reforms. It is an ambitious expenditure programme of N49.7trn, with sectoral allocations targeted to achieve certain critical objectives.

Elaborating further, President Tinubu said the budget seeks to consolidate the key policies the administration has instituted to restructure the economy, boost human capital development, increase the volume of trade and investments, and bolster oil and gas production, among others.

Daily Trust commends the president for the emphasis he placed on the issue of security in the country right now. This is reflected clearly in the large amount voted for defence and security, with the whopping amount of N4.91trn or 10.25 per cent of the total budget outlay.  It shows the government’s determination to deal with the dire security situation that has prevailed in the country for years. Perhaps, more than any other issue facing Nigeria today, insecurity is the biggest. It constrains agricultural production, social activities, commerce, and even industrial development.

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The same applies to the votes of N4.06trn made to infrastructure; N2.48trn to health, and N3.52trn to education. The Nigerian economy has been held back from achieving its potential by the neglect of these sectors over the years, leading to inadequate funding of the productive capacity.

However, like any other budget, the 2025 document stands or falls on the assumptions behind the estimates. And in this case, many of the figures, while sounding quite plausible in the argument, raise red flags concerning the realism of the entire package. For instance, the government’s projected revenue streams are based on an appreciation of the naira exchange rate, from about N1,700 to N1,500 per dollar. There is also the assumption of a base crude oil production of 2.06 million barrels per day.

Finally, in this segment of the document, the budget also is predicated on the assumption that Nigeria’s inflation rate will fall by more than half, from a rate of 34.6 per cent to 15 per cent sometime next year. In our view, these assumptions are overly ambitious, and their realisation looks quite implausible in the light of current and foreseeable realities.

Besides the above potential challenges to the realisation of the objectives of the budget, President Tinubu’s presentation failed to address a disturbing phenomenon that is creeping into Nigeria’s fiscal place. Right now, there are too many budgets running concurrently in the country. Interestingly, the budget 2025 that the president presented recently will queue behind two other full-year, and two supplementary budgets running at various stages of implementation.

From the last count, Daily Trust opines that Nigeria is currently operating an extended 2023 budget, two supplementary budgets, the 2024 budget which has been extended by six months, and now the 2025 budget. Thus, the implementation of budget 2025 will start in July next year. Ahead of it is former President Buhari’s last budget of 2023, and of course President Tinubu’s 2024 budget.

This is an unparalleled absurdity in public finance management. When the federal government earlier this month raised funds through Eurobond sales, many Nigerians believed the proceeds from that transaction were for the 2025 budget. They were wrong. The funds raised are to be used to fund the deficit in the 2024 budget.

The government and its officials owe Nigerians some explanations to make for clarification purposes. Where are we in the implementation or performance of budget 2024? We do not know how much Buhari’s 2023 has been implemented.

There is also no credible record of budget performance. So, who will account for this backlog of budget performances? Where does the nation stand on each of the four budgets, and what has happened to the projects contained in them?

As we stated last week concerning the delay in the 2025 budget presentation, these are signs of dysfunctional government machinery. They signal a high degree of lack of seriousness on the part of the government, whichever way one looks at it. Why has budgeting become a mere semantic process? That budgets could be allowed to drift along for so long smacks of a lack of understanding or appreciation of the role of budgeting in the life of a nation and its citizens.

What, for instance, were the objectives that the 2023 or 2024 budgets sought to achieve? Can such goals still be achieved in 2025? Under what contexts can they be realised, given that the very conditions or problems they were designed to address have changed several times over? These questions and more beg for urgent answers.