2025 rain forecast: Options for farmers

On February 4, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet), in Abuja unveiled the 2025 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP) to the public. The SCP document predicts that most parts of the country would experience significant rainfall at the beginning of 2025; and the rains would likely come before the onset. The southern states of Delta, Bayelsa, Rivers […]

On February 4, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet), in Abuja unveiled the 2025 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP) to the public.

The SCP document predicts that most parts of the country would experience significant rainfall at the beginning of 2025; and the rains would likely come before the onset.

The southern states of Delta, Bayelsa, Rivers and Anambra, as well as parts of Oyo, Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Lagos, Edo, Enugu, Imo and Ebonyi, are predicted to experience an early beginning. A normal onset is anticipated for the rest of the country.

However, northern states like Plateau and parts of Kaduna, Niger, Benue, Nasarawa, Taraba, Adamawa and Kwara, are expected to have a delayed commencement of the rains.

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Parts of Zamfara, Katsina, Kano, Kaduna, Jigawa, Plateau, Bauchi, Borno, Yobe, Adamawa, Taraba, Niger, Kwara, Kogi, Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Ekiti and Ondo states, are anticipated to have an early end to the rainy season as compared to the long-term average.

It is anticipated that parts of Kaduna, Nasarawa, Benue, Lagos, Kwara, Taraba, Oyo, Ogun, Cross River, Delta, Akwa Ibom, Ebonyi, Anambra and Enugu may see a delay to the end of the rainy season.

As a result, persons interested in rain-fed agriculture and other rainfall-dependent enterprises in Nigeria have been advised to consult the Nigeria Meteorological Agency or relevant publications for projected onset dates.

The predicted end of the rainy season indicates that parts of Zamfara, Katsina, Kano, Kaduna, Jigawa, Plateau, Bauchi, Borno, Yobe, Adamawa, Taraba, Niger, Kwara, Kogi, FCT, Ekiti and Ondo are expected to see an early cessation compared to the long-term average.

The end of the season is expected to be delayed over parts of Kaduna, Nasarawa, Benue, Lagos, Kwara, Taraba, Oyo, Ogun, Cross River, Delta, Akwa Ibom, Ebonyi, Anambra and Enugu.

For much of the country, the length of the rainy season is expected to be roughly normal in 2025. However, the season may be shorter than usual in Borno and parts of Yobe State. In Lagos and Nasarawa states, the season is likely to be longer than normal in 2025.

The projected length of 2025 annual rainfall is forecast to be from normal to below-normal rainfall in much of Nigeria, but areas in Kebbi, Kaduna, Ebonyi, Cross River, Lagos, Abia and Akwa Ibom states are expected to experience above-normal amounts of rain.

It is anticipated that May and June would have heavy rainfall, which could result in flash floods in coastal cities.

For the April-May-June season, Oyo State (Saki, Iseyin, Ogbomoso, Atisbo, Orelope, Itesiwaju, Olorunsgo, Kajola, Iwajowa and Oro Ire) is expected to experience a severe dry spell that lasts for more than 15 days after the start of rains.

During the June-July-August season of 2025, a severe dry spell that could last up to 21 days, is predicted for the northern states, while a moderate dry spell that could last up to 15 days is expected for Ekiti, Osun, Ondo, Ogun, Edo, Ebonyi, Anambra, Imo, Abia, Cross River, Delta, Bayelsa and Akwa Ibom.

The little dry season event in 2025 is only expected to impact parts of Ogun State and Lagos. Between 27 and 40 days will pass with little to no precipitation. On average, the little dry season in the South-West is predicted to start on July 22 in 2025.

A little dry season influence is expected over parts of Ogun, Oyo and Ekiti states, while Osun, Oyo, Kwara and a section of Ondo north are likely to experience light or mild little dry season.

Agricultural experts have advised farmers in Nigeria’s central states to adopt drought-resistant crop varieties and adjust their planting schedules in response to the predicted delay in rainfall onset.

Our correspondent, who spoke with some experts in Makurdi, reports that they recommended drought-resistant crops and adherence to best agronomy practices in order for farmers to reap bountifully this year.

Vitalis Tarnongu, an agricultural expert, urged farmers to prioritise drought-tolerant varieties to mitigate the impact of the delayed rains.

“For maize, I recommend SAMMAZ 19 and SAMMAZ 20, which are not only high-yielding but also drought-tolerant. Farmers should delay planting until the rains become consistent, which is expected around May,” he advised.

Regarding rice cultivation, he suggested FARO 44 and FARO 52, which are well-suited to Nigerian conditions.

“For upland rice, farmers should wait until late May or early June when the rains stabilise, while lowland rice should be planted around July or August. Proper soil preparation and the use of viable seeds are crucial for a successful harvest,” Tarnongu added.

On his part, Chief Dennis Denen Gbongbon, the president of the Association of United Farmers Benue Valley (AUFBV), noted that many farmers in the North-Central region relied heavily on rain-fed agriculture and may not be significantly impacted by delayed rainfall.

He, however, posited that farmers in North-Central must adapt to the changing times.

“Eighty per cent of farmers in Benue may not be highly educated, but farming is deeply embedded in their culture. They usually begin farming as soon as the first rains fall. However, since forecasters predict a late start, farmers will wait until April or May to plant short-maturing crops like maize, millet and groundnut,” he explained.

Gbongbon said cassava was not affected by seasonal variations while yam farmers would still be able to harvest within the expected timeframe.

“In northern states, where irrigation is common, farmers practise year-round agriculture. They have reservoirs and dams that ensure continued farming, even when rainfall is delayed. However, here in North-Central, we must wait for the rains,” he added.

For Teryima Iorlamen, soil preparation is key. The seed systems principal investigator at the Joseph Sarwuan Tarka University (JOSTUM), formerly known as Federal University of Agriculture, Makurdi (FUAM), previously emphasised the importance of land preparation and waiting for stable rainfall before planting.

He said, “For root crops like yam, land must be well prepared to allow proper root penetration. Yam doesn’t require excessive water at certain stages, so timing is crucial.”

He also advised farmers to ensure that the soil is well-drained and properly softened.

“This allows the plant to expand its root system in search of water, promoting better growth and higher yields,” he explained.

The experts unanimously asserted that with the forecasted late onset of rains, farmers, especially in Benue, should plan strategically by choosing drought-resistant crop varieties, preparing their soil properly and adjusting their planting schedules, stressing that by following these guidelines, they can still achieve good yields despite the unpredictable weather conditions.

Malam Idris Saidu Garko, a specialist in crop productivity enhancement, said the NiMET had fulfilled its obligation to disseminate information promptly and that farmers and government agencies at all levels now have the responsibility of implementing best practices that would guarantee that sufficient measures have been taken to address the anticipated changes.

“There is a need for proactive measures to be taken by farmers and the government at all levels. The government should implore effective use of agricultural extension officers in educating farmers on the best practices to adopt in case the predictions become real. Moreover, despite the predictions, there were already different agencies working on climate-smart agricultural practices, and that should also be harnessed,” he said.

The specialist also advised that farmers should ensure that they obtain their seeds from accredited seed vendors and should also desist from obtaining their seeds anywhere else.

“This is an era that farmers should understand that usage of uncertified seeds is over. They should understand that use of certified seeds is now mandatory if the needed result is to be achieved,” he advised.

Garko further said that farmers should be encouraged to adopt crop rotation, mixed cropping, shifting cultivation and other practices that would suit climate change to be able to make good use of the changes.

He added that there is also the need to make agricultural meteorological information available and accessible across the value chain to farmers. According to him, NiMet has done its part for the country and there ought to be a separate body that would engage specifically with farmers to understand what the predictions mean.

Another specialist, Dr Aminu Sada, said that due to climate change as experienced worldwide, there should be an initiative that would sustain increased productivity, enhance resilience and reduce greenhouse gases, as well as knowledge of planting to address tradeoffs and synergies between productivity, adaptation and mitigation.

He added that climate-smart agriculture is inevitable, and that although the concept is new and still evolving, knowingly or unknowingly, many farmers are currently practising the innovation.

“It is good to state here that the alert issued by NiMet is in good time for all stakeholders to do the needful,” he said.