2027: Matters arising

The political landscape is gradually roaring to life. For the regular Nigerian, this is usually both good and bad news. The good news is that the season comes with a potential for incremental progress and the bad news is that it is also a time for a zero-sum showdown between the titans. And when such […]

The political landscape is gradually roaring to life. For the regular Nigerian, this is usually both good and bad news. The good news is that the season comes with a potential for incremental progress and the bad news is that it is also a time for a zero-sum showdown between the titans. And when such clashes occur, it is usually the population that bears the consequences.

It has been a wild two years, and it is possible that the two years until elections in 2027 will be even wilder. The severe economic shocks caused by the policies of the Tinubu government did not make a lot of friends for the administration among the regular folk, and there is talk of estrangement and betrayal among the elite.

If recent developments in the political arena are anything to go by, it is safe to say that opposition politicians are planning the Goodluck treatment for Tinubu, but the problem is that Tinubu is no Goodluck.

Disgruntled elements within the political fold that brought Tinubu to power in 2023, working with opposition parties, had earmarked 2025 as the time to create a strong and unified opposition that would give the ruling APC a run for its money. About six months in, however, things seem to have fallen apart.

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Veteran Nigerian politician Atiku Abubakar – the main opposition PDP presidential candidate in the previous election – was leading the strategy of the planned coalition. He followed up his push by holding meetings across the country with several notable politicians including former LP presidential candidate, Peter Obi.

With poverty on the rise due to Tinubu’s painful economic reforms, such as the removal of petrol subsidy and floating the naira, the opposition planned to transform public disillusionment into real votes. With 12 out of the 36 governors in Nigeria already in its fold, all that the PDP needed was to form a coalition with Obi and his Obidient movement to trounce Tinubu, who won the 2023 election with just 36.6 per cent of the votes.

However, the opposition plan may well have fallen apart months before the election season. Not only have the PDP governors ruled out the possibility of a coalition, but some have finalised plans to either join the ruling APC or enter into a strategic partnership with Tinubu, likely through facilitation by his PDP lieutenant, FCT minister Nyesom Wike.

Governor Sheriff Oborevwori of Delta State, a major stronghold of the PDP, was the first to announce his defection to the APC, ending the PDP’s 26-year rule of the oil-rich state. To add insult to injury, former governor Ifeanyi Okowa, Atiku’s running mate in 2023, followed suit.

Things are no doubt getting perilous, and the future looks bleak for the fortunes of former vice president Abubakar’s coalition. Indeed, the counting of PDP governors crossing over to APC has begun. Is the opposition coalition therefore dead on arrival?

In Akwa Ibom, another state that has been ruled by the PDP for the past 26 years, Governor Umo Eno announced that he would be supporting Tinubu in the 2027 election. Rivers State, a hitherto stronghold of the PDP, is firmly in Tinubu’s grip since the president declared a state of emergency and all elected officials were suspended.

In Adamawa State where Atiku is from, Governor Ahmadu Fintiri has moved to the camp of Atiku’s nemesis, Wike. Plateau State Governor Caleb Mutfwang has also followed suit while Governor Ademola Adeleke of Osun State is in talks with Tinubu’s camp as he seeks reelection next year.

Bauchi State Governor Bala Mohammed, who doubles as the chairman of the PDP governors’ forum, has refused to see eye to eye with Atiku due to their longstanding feud. This implies that only four governors in the PDP are currently fully committed to the party’s victory at the next poll. To add insult to injury, the PDP party organ continues to face internal friction as attempts to remove the acting national chairman, Umar Damagum, have been frustrated by various courts.

The Labour Party remains in disarray. The national chairman of the party, Julius Abure, has blocked all attempts by Obi to take charge of the party. This has caused Obi’s lieutenants like Valentine Ozigbo and Kenneth Okonkwo to walk away. A nebulous Supreme Court judgment has given both sides the impetus to claim ownership of the party which has led to more confusion.

The party has lost most of its federal lawmakers and its sole governor, Alex Otti of Abia State, is being courted by the APC to enter into a strategic alliance with Tinubu.

In Kano, Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso of the NNPP, who came fourth in the previous presidential election and maintains a firm grip on the state, has also been in talks with Tinubu as evidenced by the defection of some of his lieutenants.

Kano, which has produced the largest number of voters in the past three elections, remains the most strategic state in the country. Opposition in the federal parliament has also joined hands with the ruling party. Organised labour unions, renowned for holding the government’s feet to the fire, are seemingly moot in recent months, which has not gone unnoticed.

Tinubu’s reelection is however not fait accompli. As the embattled Ag. Chairman of the PDP said, 2027 may not be a battle between the APC and opposition PDP. It may be between Tinubu/APC vs Nigerians.

“This election in 2027 is not about how many governors you have or how many leaders. It’s about Tinubu and Nigerians,” Damagum told reporters back in April, drawing a line between political leadership and the harsh realities faced by citizens under the current administration. He described Nigeria as a country where daily survival has become a challenge for ordinary people and urged voters to see the polls as an opportunity to hold the government accountable.

“The ordinary man is feeling the pain, and the decision is his. So I want to use this opportunity to tell Nigerians that it is their election. It is APC versus Nigerians.

“It’s not APC versus any governor or senator or anything, but APC versus Nigerians. So I want to urge all of us to close ranks and rescue ourselves from this hardship that is inflicted on us by design, not by any coincidence”, he said.

So may be there won’t be a titanic clash between two elephants in 2027. But then the implication is that the fight would be between an elephant and a whole bunch of helpless guinea pigs. The outcome would be anyone’s guess.