2027: When power games threaten the Republic: A deeper look at APC’s political antics

Mahmud Jega’s analysis of the APC’s internal contradictions, in his article, “Lest Presidency Scores an Own Goal” (21st Century Chronicle online), exposes not merely a party-level crisis but reflects a deeper malaise in Nigeria’s evolving democratic culture – one where personal ambitions, factional calculations, and ethnic balancing frequently override institutional consistency and ideological clarity. Even […]

Mahmud Jega’s analysis of the APC’s internal contradictions, in his article, “Lest Presidency Scores an Own Goal” (21st Century Chronicle online), exposes not merely a party-level crisis but reflects a deeper malaise in Nigeria’s evolving democratic culture – one where personal ambitions, factional calculations, and ethnic balancing frequently override institutional consistency and ideological clarity. Even before the party’s primary schedule is announced, the confusion surrounding the vice-presidential permutations underscores a chronic disregard for democratic norms within Nigeria’s party politics. Rather than strengthening internal democracy, the APC leadership appears trapped in transactional politics, using high offices as bargaining chips to pre-empt dissent and consolidate power. This practice weakens meritocratic competition and disenfranchises ordinary party members.

Worse still, the speculative juggling of regional and religious identities for electoral advantage, as highlighted in Jega’s piece, reveals a troubling continuity in Nigerian political strategy: elections are not being approached as contests of ideas or policy, but as games of ethnic arithmetic and elite accommodation. This undermines the maturation of democratic processes by normalizing power brokerage over transparent engagement. The APC’s current maneuvers, if not curbed, risk deepening public cynicism, fracturing its internal cohesion, and reproducing the very crisis of political trust that has stunted democratic consolidation since the Fourth Republic began. In this light, Jega’s invocation of Babangida’s infamous political somersaults is not just historical – it is a warning.

Jega’s column serves as both a diagnosis and a caution: that the APC’s haphazard attempts to keep multiple factions pacified, by dangling the Vice Presidency as a political token, represent more than internal disarray. They are symptomatic of a broader decline in the quality of governance and the erosion of Nigeria’s fragile national consensus. What is unfolding under the watch of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is a dangerous re-enactment of past political games that once brought this country to the brink.

At the heart of Jega’s concerns lies the Presidency’s apparent readiness to trade away core political relationships in the North East in favour of speculative gains in the North West or North Central. The speculation that the Vice Presidency could be offered to either Northern Christians, NNPP leader, Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso, or a sitting APC governor in the North West smacks of political gambling with long-term consequences. The fact that these discussions are surfacing in advance of even the release of a primary timetable raises urgent questions about the sincerity of the ruling party’s democratic posture.

• 2027: Tinubu to choose running mate after convention – Presidency
• 2027: Lest Presidency scores an own goal

This is not merely a matter of poor optics or elite squabbling. When democratic institutions are bypassed, and strategic decisions are reduced to cynical trade-offs, the result is disaffection, apathy, and eventually rebellion – not necessarily of the violent kind, but the kind that erodes national cohesion and public faith in the political order.

The danger is compounded by the ongoing politicization of identity. In trying to balance the fallout of the Muslim-Muslim ticket of 2023, the APC appears poised to reopen old wounds by playing the identity card yet again, this time under the guise of “correcting” a religious imbalance. But such balancing acts often serve elite interests more than the real needs of marginalized groups. What Northern Christians – or any group – truly need is justice, inclusion, and competent governance, not symbolic appeasement in exchange for silence.

Furthermore, using a critical national office such as the Vice Presidency as bait for political negotiations not only diminishes the office but also destabilizes the party’s internal structures. If a sitting Vice President, who has neither erred publicly nor been found wanting in his duties, can be so casually replaced for electoral arithmetic, what message does that send to other loyal party members or the wider electorate?

And then there is the threat to national unity. Nigeria remains a tenuous federation, held together by decades of negotiated balances, imperfect compromises, and a shared – if fragile – belief in collective destiny. The regions of the country do not merely want representation; they want recognition, respect, and a sense of belonging. The North East, which has remained loyal to the APC through turbulent times, may interpret such political maneuvering as betrayal. That perception, especially in a region already grappling with post-insurgency disillusionment, could deepen alienation and accelerate political fragmentation.

Jega’s sharp commentary rightly recalls General Babangida’s infamous “dribbling” of the political class in the 1990s – a tragic farce that eventually ended in the June 12 annulment and a national crisis. Nigeria’s democracy has never fully recovered from the seed of pseudo-democracy sown by the annulment – a process that mimicked electoral legitimacy on the foundational echoes that lacked genuine democratic process. Yet today, the APC seems tempted by the same playbook: managing crises not through principled leadership, but through strategic obfuscation and elite juggling.

What Nigeria needs in this moment is not another round of elite maneuvers but a recommitment to democratic order, grounded in transparency, internal party discipline, and respect for voters. The ruling party must cease acting as though its electoral survival is more important than the survival of the republic itself. It must recognize that its conduct sets the tone for the wider political culture. If it continues on the path of opportunism, other parties will follow suit, and the country will slide further into the abyss of political nihilism.

The APC still has time to reverse course. That would begin by affirming internal democracy, insulating the office of the Vice President from electoral speculation, and reassuring all regions, especially the North East, that they are not pawns in a national game of succession chess.

Anything less, and the party will not only score an own goal, but it may also well dismantle the goalpost of democracy itself.

 

Kabiru Sulaiman Chafe is the Director of the Arewa Research and Development Project (ARDP), Kaduna.