2027: Will defections, El-Rufai’s ‘rift’ with APC alter alignment in Kaduna?

The political landscape of Kaduna State is undergoing a significant transformation following a wave of defections to the All Progressives Congress (APC). The return of prominent politicians to the ruling party comes amid a deepening rift between former Governor Nasir El-Rufai, Governor Uba Sani, and the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. While Governor Sani […]

The political landscape of Kaduna State is undergoing a significant transformation following a wave of defections to the All Progressives Congress (APC).

The return of prominent politicians to the ruling party comes amid a deepening rift between former Governor Nasir El-Rufai, Governor Uba Sani, and the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

While Governor Sani positions himself as a unifier by bringing back former adversaries—including ex-Governor Ramalan Yero, Senator Shehu Sani, Senator Suleiman Othman Hunkuyi, and Senator Danjuma La’ah from Southern Kaduna—many see this as a strategic move to neutralise any potential comeback by El-Rufai.

This is coming on the heels of defection of the member representing Zangon Kataf/Jaba Federal Constituency of Kaduna State, Rep. Amos Gwamna Magaji, from the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the ruling APC.

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El-Rufai, once instrumental in Tinubu’s emergence as president, has found himself increasingly sidelined since his failed bid for a ministerial appointment in 2023. His fallout with the federal government escalated following corruption allegations against his former aides in Kaduna, with some facing prosecution.

His recent public criticism of the APC and calls for a political coalition against the ruling party suggest he is preparing for a larger political battle ahead of 2027. While he remains a member of the ruling party, his constant posts on his official X (formerly Twitter) handle suggests that the relationship is only on the paper.

A former commissioner in his administration, speaking anonymously, described the attempt to silence El-Rufai as a betrayal: “He played a great role in bringing this Tinubu government to power, even when some northerners were against it. He convinced governors from the North to support Tinubu, and now look at how they are paying him.”

This role was also admitted by President Tinubu. In a statement yesterday which Bayo Onanuga, Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, issued on his behalf, Tinubu described El-Rufai as an administrator, scholar, and politician.

The president acknowledges Mallam El-Rufai’s role in the dialogues leading up to the formation of the APC and his contributions to the success of the party in the three consecutive elections of 2015, 2019, and 2023”, the statement read in parts.

However, despite his growing isolation, El-Rufai’s influence in Kaduna remains strong, instilling fear in political opponents especially owing to his role in the emergence of Governor Sani barely two years ago.

Political analyst, Haruna Nasarawa, noted that both the Kaduna APC and the presidency are closely watching his next move.

“The ruling party has angered some of its members at the federal level. El-Rufai may capitalise on this to lead a new coalition of aggrieved politicians, just as the APC itself emerged from a similar political realignment that unseated the PDP in 2015,” he said.

Meanwhile, observers believe that Governor Sani’s recent push to reintegrate key political figures into the APC appears to be a direct response to El-Rufai’s perceived plans to either form a new party or align with another.

Barrister Mohammed Ibrahim Zaria, a politician in Kaduna, believes the defections were triggered by fears of El-Rufai’s potential influence.

“They are convinced that El-Rufai will leave the party and form a new political movement. That’s why they are running back to the APC to counter him before he makes his next move,” he said.

Zaria argues that the state government’s actions are an attempt to impress Abuja by showing loyalty to the federal government’s agenda of sidelining El-Rufai.

“They are doing these meetings to impress Abuja, but will these defectors bring votes on election day? That’s the real question.”

However, Governor Uba Sani’s Special Assistant on Support Groups, Mustapha Yamusa Rigasa, who doubles as the Chairman of 19 Northern States Special Assistants (SAs) Forum, described the defections as a positive development for the APC.

“The defection is a blessing to our party. It strengthens our structure in the state ahead of 2027 and shows that Governor Uba Sani is a unifier, reaching out to all aggrieved politicians, especially in Southern Kaduna, to build a stronger APC.”

He further emphasised that the governor’s reconciliation efforts would enhance the APC’s electoral prospects.

“With these defections, our party is set to consolidate its dominance in Kaduna. The governor has ensured that everyone, regardless of past grievances, feels included in the APC. This is the kind of leadership that wins elections”, he said.

Despite these assurances, political analyst Haruna Nasarawa pointed out a looming challenge: “Many of these returnees have their own political ambitions for 2027. Managing these competing interests will be a major test for Governor Uba Sani and the APC.”

Southern Kaduna, traditionally a stronghold of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party (LP), has also seen notable defections to the APC. Among them are Senator Danjuma La’ah and several serving lawmakers at both the national and state levels.

Governor Sani has made visible efforts to reconcile with leaders from the region, a move analysts believe is aimed at solidifying the APC’s hold on the state.

Rigasa highlighted this as a crucial step in ensuring inclusivity within the party. “This is not just about winning elections; it’s about showing that the party belongs to everyone, not just a particular section of the state,” he added.

Observers noted that the recent defections in Kaduna underscore a deeper power struggle within the APC. Governor Sani is seen to be consolidating his grip on the party by welcoming back estranged members, but many see this as an effort to counter a potential El-Rufai comeback.

This is particularly significant because almost all the key politicians who recently returned to the ruling party were those who left before the 2019 elections after being allegedly frustrated by El-Rufai’s leadership.

At the national level, the former governor’s disenchantment with the Tinubu administration could have far-reaching implications, potentially leading to a major political realignment before 2027.

Whether El-Rufai officially parts ways with the APC or remains a thorn in its side from within, one thing is clear: Kaduna’s political landscape is set for a fierce and unpredictable battle in the coming years.

 

Defections can’t save APC govt from imminent exit in 2027 – PDP

But reacting to the wave of defections, the Kaduna State Chapter of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) said that no amount of defections can save the APC-led government from its imminent exit in 2027.

The PDP further urged the Speakers of the House of Representatives and the Kaduna State House of Assembly to declare the seats of serving legislators that defected to the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC) vacant and notify the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to conduct bye-elections.

In a statement by its Publicity Secretary, Maria Dogo, the PDP said according to Sections 68(1)(g) and 109 of the Constitution, serving legislators who defect to another party must vacate their seats.

It could be recalled that three opposition members of the Kaduna State House of Assembly defected to the APC, citing Governor Sani’s performance as their reason for leaving the PDP.

But the PDP strongly condemns the recent defections of its members saying, “These defections, particularly by serving legislators elected under the PDP platform, are a brazen betrayal of the trust placed in them by the people.”

“While we acknowledge the constitutional rights of every Nigerian to freedom of association, we view these defections as unacceptable. Consequently, we assure the people of Kaduna State,  particularly those from the affected constituencies, that the PDP leadership will invoke the provisions of the constitution to recover our mandates, as there is no division or split in our party leadership at the national level.

“According to Sections 68(1)(g) and 109 of the Constitution, serving legislators who defect to another party must vacate their seats. We urge the Speakers of the House of Representatives and the Kaduna State House of Assembly to declare the seats of these defectors vacant and notify the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to conduct bye-elections,” the statement added.

Dogo noted that the PDP remains unshaken by these defections and also the preferred choice of the vast majority of the people of Kaduna State. “Our party’s popularity was evident in the last local government council elections, where the people stood by us in rejecting the APC’s attempt to impose its candidates, leading to the shameless announcement of candidates who couldn’t even vote for themselves, as winners.

“The stark reality is that some of the defectors are spent forces or overambitious politicians who either lost in the PDP’s zoning arrangements in their constituencies or lost primaries in 2022, and have been secretly working for the APC. Their defection, therefore, is a desperate attempt to secure automatic tickets in 2026, as the APC doesn’t hold primaries.”

The PDP challenged the governor to reshuffle his lopsided and inept cabinet and appoint these defectors to strategic positions if he truly believes they have value to offer.

It however advised the governor and the Kaduna State government to stop wasting taxpayers’ money on elaborate receptions for defectors. “Instead, they should focus on delivering the dividends of democracy, which have eluded the citizens since the inception of this administration.”

“The truth is, our people are yearning for a return to the PDP years when the economy thrived, and citizens could afford their basic needs.  Therefore, no amount of defections can save the APC-led government from its imminent exit in 2027.”