2027: Zoning takes front seat as early campaigns begin for Nasarawa guber race

The race for the 2027 governorship election is gaining momentum in Nasarawa State as aspirants intensify their efforts, even as some power brokers are said to be working to alter the zoning arrangement in the state. With the zoning arrangement expected to favour Nasarawa West Senatorial District, key aspirants in the state are believed to […]

The race for the 2027 governorship election is gaining momentum in Nasarawa State as aspirants intensify their efforts, even as some power brokers are said to be working to alter the zoning arrangement in the state.

With the zoning arrangement expected to favour Nasarawa West Senatorial District, key aspirants in the state are believed to have started public campaigning, while others are quietly working behind the scenes to secure their positions.

For instance, campaign posters of Dr. Faisal Shuaibu, former Executive Director of the National Primary Healthcare Development Agency (NPHDA), have taken over the streets of Lafia, Nasarawa State, ahead of the 2027 governorship race.

Our correspondent observed that Shuaibu’s posters are prominently displayed around key locations in the state capital, particularly at a major roundabout between Jos, Doma, and Alamis Market Roads. They also line Shendam Road, leading to the Government House, and stretching to the Emir’s Palace, outshining those of other political aspirants.

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Dr. Shuaibu, who has not made any formal declaration, is believed to be among the frontrunners to contest the governorship election on the platform of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

A political associate, who wished to remain anonymous, said Shuaibu has deep political roots in Nasarawa West Senatorial District and that this, along with his success in eradicating polio in Nigeria, made him the candidate to beat for the APC ticket.

However, some residents have expressed dissatisfaction with the proliferation of campaign posters, calling them an eyesore and a disruption to the environment.

Despite these concerns, others believe the posters raise awareness about the upcoming elections. Some allege that political thugs are involved in the distribution, often doing so at odd hours for financial gain.

However, observers have noted that several factors will shape the contest in the state, including the strength of political parties, the performance of incumbent Governor Abdullahi Sule, public perception, zoning arrangements and local issues.

 

Zoning controversy

Since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, Nasarawa has followed a zoning practice that has seen the governorship seat rotate among the three senatorial districts. Nasarawa West, known as the Keffi Zone, produced the first democratically elected governor, Senator Abdullahi Adamu (Turakin Keffi), of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), who served two terms from 1999 to 2007.

Following Adamu, the Nasarawa South (Lafia Zone) took its turn with the election of the late Governor Aliyu Akwe Doma of PDP in 2007, who served for one term. In 2011, Akwe Doma was succeeded by Senator Umaru Tanko Al-Makura, also from the Lafia zone, but elected under the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC). Al-Makura served two terms, from 2011 to 2019, bringing the Lafia zone’s total tenure to 12 years.

In 2019, Al-Makura handed over the reins to Governor Abdullahi Sule, hailing from Nasarawa North (Akwanga Zone). Sule’s tenure will end in May 2027. As the 2027 election approaches, there is significant debate surrounding the zoning of the governorship seat. The opposition PDP is pushing for the slot to remain in the Akwanga Zone, while some members of the ruling APC argue for a shift to Nasarawa West.

Dr. Muhamad Awal Suleiman, a political analyst, argues that beyond the zoning arrangement, Nasarawa needs fresh leadership to foster democratic dividends. He believes the state must move beyond the control of political godfathers to elect a leader focused on the people.

Suleiman points out that Nasarawa North took its turn in 2019, and the time has come for the western zone to take the lead.

However, other political commentators warn that mishandling the zoning issue could disrupt the political balance in the state. They stress that the focus should be on selecting capable, inclusive leaders, free from ethnic, religious, or tribal biases.

Aside from Dr. Shuaibu, other key politicians have been suggested as potential contenders. They include the district’s serving senator, Ahmed Aliyu Wadada, the immediate past Speaker of the state Assembly, Ibrahim Balarabe, and Barrister Mohammed Hassan Abdullahi, former Minister of Environment.

Wadada, who currently flies the flag of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in the red chamber is considered one of the strongest contenders in the district, having defeated the APC with Abdullahi Adamu then as the party’s national chairman.  Balarabe on his part, a grassroots politician, is believed to have lost his seat in the state Assembly and the speakership, due to permutations on the 2027 gubernatorial race. Abdullahi, who is an associate of Adamu, also has a good relationship with Al-Makura, which analysts said puts him in a vantage position.

Apart from the potential contenders from Nasarawa West, observers said there are at least 30 others from various political parties across the other senatorial districts, who have shown interest in the governorship seat. The APC has the most contenders, followed by the PDP, while other parties’ candidates remain largely inconsequential in the race.

For instance, the candidate of the PDP in the 2023 election, Dr. David Ombugadu, is considered the candidate to be beaten with his outing in the election. Ombugadu, who is from the Nasarawa North senatorial district, polled 283, 016 votes to the incumbent governor’s 347, 209 votes, according to the tally of the Independent National Electoral Commission. He was a step closer to the Government House after the election petition tribunal sacked Governor Sule, but the victory was short-lived as both the Court of Appeal and the Supreme Court reinstated the governor.

 

Call for zoning and equity intensify

In an interview, Yusuf Omaki, a former member of the Nasarawa State House of Assembly, discussed the concept of macro and micro zoning.

According to Omaki, the macro zoning for the state has already been completed, with each federal constituency having produced a governor or deputy governor. He emphasized that the time has come for the Nasarawa West zone to take its turn.

Omaki also argued that Dr. Shuaibu’s generosity, strong grassroots support, and experience in public service make him a formidable candidate.

Having served as the Director of NPHCDA for over seven years without any significant controversy, Shuaibu is seen by many as a capable leader who could continue the development agenda of Governor Abdullahi Sule.

 

APC mum, PDP undecided on zoning

While the leadership of the ruling APC were unreachable for comment on the zoning arrangement and the general permutations, the state chairman of the PDP, Adamu Bako Niga, stated in a telephone interview that his party has not yet decided where it will zone its governorship candidate.

He argued that it was too early to make any pronouncements. According to Niga, the people of Nasarawa should be allowed to choose their leader, and forcing a candidate without the necessary leadership qualities could harm the state’s democracy. He also pointed to the example of Plateau State, where the people elected a leader who performed well and gained the support of the electorate.

While the PDP has not yet decided on its stance regarding zoning, Niga stressed that his party has a comprehensive plan, and decisions will be made collectively, from the ward level to the local government and zonal levels.

 

Traditional rulers, political godfathers to play key roles

Analysts believe that as with local politics across states in the North, traditional rulers in Nasarawa have always been influential in deciding who emerges as the state governor. They suggested that most of the rulers are reportedly working behind the scenes, aligning with the ruling APC to influence the selection of the next governor.

Political heavyweights, such as former governors Abdullahi Adamu and Umaru Tanko Al-Makura, as well as influential figures like Senator Solomon Ewuga, Prof. Onje Gyewado, Labaran Maku and Chief Mike Abdul, are also expected to play significant roles as kingmakers in the election.

The current governor, Abdullahi Sule, is also believed to be actively working to ensure his chosen candidate succeeds him in 2027, further highlighting the influence of political powerbrokers in the state.

 

Religious and tribal politics

Aside from the role of the traditional rulers and political godfathers, religion and ethnicity have been significant factors in Nasarawa’s political landscape, with voting patterns often influenced by these divisions. As the 2027 election draws near, it remains to be seen how these factors will affect the race.

Political analysts noted that despite zoning, religious and tribal dynamics will continue to shape the election outcome.