3 years after, power, economy, security on the scale

On May 29, 2023, at Eagle Square, where he took the oath of office, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, left no one in doubt about what his administration would focus on during his four-year tenure. With a three-word sentence he abolished the age-old subsidy on petroleum products which saw the spiraling of prices of commodities and […]

On May 29, 2023, at Eagle Square, where he took the oath of office, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, left no one in doubt about what his administration would focus on during his four-year tenure. With a three-word sentence he abolished the age-old subsidy on petroleum products which saw the spiraling of prices of commodities and services in the country. Weeks later, his administration began merging the foreign exchange market which saw a massive devaluation of the naira against the dollar. Months before his inauguration during the campaign he had promised Nigerians uninterrupted power supply if elected. He even said that Nigerians should not re-elect him if he could not fulfill this promise.

He also promised more jobs for the Nigerian youths and better business environment for small and medium entrepreneurs, arrest rising tide of insecurity and provide better environment to farmers to till the land and cultivate more food.

In the last three years these issues have remained the defining goals of this administration and most likely their success or failure will determine whether Nigerians will give President  Tinubu another chance as he  seeks another four-year term come January 2027.

As Nigeria marks another year since the inauguration of the Fourth Republic, it is important to look back and see whether it is worth the while. But more importantly, it is pertinent to provide a broad assessment of the journey so far.

• Tinubu’s toughest battle remains security
• 3 years after ‘subsidy is gone’: The real balance sheet of Tinubu’s reforms

By far, the much talked about sector has been electricity. In the last 20 years, administration after administration, this is a sector that has defied all interventions. Sadly, it is also a sector that saw trillions sunk with no results. Today, the situation has hardly changed as Nigerians lament high tariff, estimated billings and grid collapse. With these problems, thousands of jobs have gone as companies failed to meet their energy needs independently.

Among measures taken by this administration was the signing into law of the 2023 Electricity Act which removed power sector from exclusive list into concurrent list.

This was to allow state governments to play active role in the sector and allow multiple market players against the monopoly electricity Distribution Companies (DisCos) enjoy in their franchise areas.

It also provided for the breakup of the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) into two enabling efficiency by allowing the Nigerian Independent System Operator (NISO) to manage interconnectivity on the grid while the TCN operates the infrastructure.

Sadly, three years later, only 15 states have adopted the Act. It has also led to standoff between state regulatory agencies and DisCos as the former tries to interfere in tariff fixing.

Though some states have announced investment to construct power plants, the number of years they will take to be completed is uncertain for residents to enjoy their benefit.

The sector still battles old equipment, vandalisation of equipment and disputes over metering and settling of gas supply bills.

Since 2009, insecurity has been an issue of concern. All over the country Nigerians are battling insecurity; from kidnappings, banditry, herders-farmers clash to terrorism.

Government has claimed successes, saying that more than 13,000 terrorists and armed criminals have been killed since 2023, while nearly 10,000 kidnapped victims were rescued through coordinated operations. It also claimed 124,000 Boko Haram and ISWAP fighters and their family members have surrendered during sustained counterinsurgency operations in the North-East.

It also pointed to improved security in the Niger Delta which enabled a surge in crude oil production to around 1.5 to 1.6 million barrels per day by 2025.

However, while Nigerians still battle banditry and other insecurity issues, controversy emerged after the creation of the Office of the Special Adviser on Homeland Security as critics say the new office appeared to overlap with the responsibilities of the NSA, potentially creating confusion within the security structure. Its supporters argue that it is designed to focus on domestic threats such as border security, organised crime, cyber threats and protection of critical infrastructure. For now Nigerians are waiting to see how the two will work for their good.

Tinubu’s promise to improve agriculture also seems to be a hope dashed. While promises were made for the supply of agricultural inputs, machinery and credit, many farmers are complaining of low price of their produce after the government granted waiver for the importation of rice, sorghum and other staple food.

 “As a farmer, I understand what many of us have been going through in recent times. It got to a point where some farmers preferred buying food commodities rather than cultivating them because it became cheaper and easier to buy than to cultivate. I know what I went through last year, and I saw how others struggled,” Malam Kabir Umar, a Katsina-based farmer, said.

Government’s approach to the economy has been a mix of divergent opinions on their effectiveness. While some say the removal of subsidy and the liberalisation of the exchange rate have saved the government trillions of naira, others argue that the gains were at the expense of rising inflation and the folding of many small and medium enterprises which could not meet the high cost of production.

Critics argue that the trillions saved have not been effectively uitilised to rebuild or build infrastructure. They also worry over the mounting debt after the government embarked on a borrowing spree.

For now the assessment is on and the verdict would only be known after the presidential election.