A closer look at the draw

Very often, what may look to be favorable match-ups end up being bad ones. On Tuesday night in Caracas, Venezuela, where the FIBA Olympic Qualifying Tournament is to be staged from 2-8 July, 12 teams were drawn into four groups. Only three of those sides will advance to the London Games. Nine teams have secured […]

Very often, what may look to be favorable match-ups end up being bad ones.

On Tuesday night in Caracas, Venezuela, where the FIBA Olympic Qualifying Tournament is to be staged from 2-8 July, 12 teams were drawn into four groups.

Only three of those sides will advance to the London Games. Nine teams have secured their spots in London.

They are hosts Great Britain, world champions Team USA, Tunisia, Argentina, Brazil, Australia, China, Spain and France.

In Group A are Greece, Jordan and Puerto Rico while Lithuania, Nigeria and Venezuela are in Group B.

The Dominican Republic, Korea and Russia are in Group C and in Group D are Angola, F.Y.R. of Macedonia and New Zealand.

One way to determine favorites would be to look at the FIBA World Rankings.

In that case, Greece (4th), Lithuania (5th) and Russia (11th) would appear to have the best shot of moving on to London.

There are a lot of variables to take on board, though.

While European teams – Greece, Croatia and Germany – took the three spots on offer at the 2008 qualifying event, they were all playing close to home in Athens.

This year’s tournament is in South America. How will playing on a different continent and the travel that is required impact the non-Americas teams?

Player availability, and the coaching situations of some national teams like the Dominican Republic who have yet to confirm who will lead the team, have a major impact.

On the face of it, Russia appear to have the most straight forward path to the Semi-Finals.

Even if Al Horford recovers from the torn pectoral muscle he suffered in January while playing for the Atlanta Hawks and returns to full strength for the Dominicans, the Russians have a lot of things in their favor.

They have continuity with coach David Blatt and many solid players who have gained experience the past few years at EuroBaskets 2009 and 2011, and the 1010 World Championship.

Andrey Kirilenko, who scores, rebounds, plays defense and most importantly leads – maybe the best all-rounder in the sport – also returned to the fold last year and made a huge difference as he earned a spot on the all-tournament team in Lithuania.

Russia look to be big favorites to finish top of Group C while the Dominicans are a mystery.

There is the coaching situation that is still to be resolved with last year’s boss, John Calipari, not confirmed to be coming back, and the injury question mark hovering over big man Horford.

Despite doing well at the last two FIBA Americas Championships, the Dominicans will be facing teams outside their zone.

They could struggle against Korea’s style of play.

Being in the Americas and having NBA-talent in the squad suggests the Dominicans should finish second.

The team that will be next up for the Russians in the do-or-die Quarter-Finals is anybody’s guess.

Angola, who were dethroned as African champions by Tunisia, and Oceania runners-up New Zealand also have a lot of experience in international games.

There are a lot of Tall Blacks competing for the New Zealand Breakers, which helps the players know each other and their tendencies, while scoring machine Kirk Penney is excelling in Spain’s Liga Endesa with Fuenlabrada.

Most of the Angolans compete in their country’s top flight but it remains to be seen who will coach the team.

If F.Y.R. of Macedonia take the side that finished fourth at the EuroBasket, Marin Dokuzovski’s troops should be the team to beat – especially with EuroBasket all-tournament team selection Bo McCalebb, the continued emergence of twins Vojdan and Damjan Stojanovski, the presence of Pero Antic and the steady play of point guard Vlado Ilievski.

Should the Macedonians finish top of Group D, then Russia will like their chances of beating the second-place team, either New Zealand or Angola, to reach the Semi-Finals.

The Macedonians would have a tough game, but their disciplined approach and terrific guard play should allow them to see off the challenge of the second-place side from Group C – the Dominicans or the Koreans – to reach the last four.

In Group A, Greece will be favorites to win both games with the expected return of both Vassilis Spanoulis and Sofoklis Schortsanitis to the line-up. The Puerto Ricans have lost their last two important games to the Greeks, at the qualifying event in Athens in 2008 and also in Ankara at the World Championship.

Both Puerto Rican basketball stars Carlos Arroyo (Besiktas) and Jose Barea (Minnesota) have been banged up of late. Jordan can be awkward opponents for Greece since they will play a slow, deliberate style in the half-court. The Greeks likely have far too much depth and experience, and coach Ilias Zouros also has a year at the helm under his belt. He was magnificent with a Greek team in turmoil last year.

In Group B, Nigeria are liking their chances of springing some upsets after clinching bronze at the Afrobasket in Madagascar. Recent evidence suggests Lithuania, who have played at every Olympics since 1992 and captured bronze at the last World Championship, should finish first with the return of Linas Kleiza to the squad and hopefully for fans of the Baltic side, Jonas Maciulis. Kleiza was an all-tournament selection in Turkey. Both he and Maciulis missed the EuroBasket in their homeland because of injuries.

Venezuela had to fight every inch of the way to get the fifth-place finish needed to reach the qualifying tournament. Their games against both Nigeria and Lithuania will be very interesting. The Venezuelans will have the home support, a great all-round talent in Greivis Vasquez of the New Orleans Hornets and the desire to capitalize on a golden opportunity to reach the Olympics for the first time since 1992. The most likely scenario is that Venezuela will get a win against Nigeria and come in second.

Should the Greeks face Venezuela in the Quarter-Finals, it would be the game of the century for the home fans and an  extremely uncomfortable 40  inutes for Greece.

However, there is no substitute for experience, talent and a winning tradition and Greece have all three in abundance.

The Lithuanians, if they win Group A, would find a hard Semi-Final awaiting them against the Puerto Ricans if Flor Melendez’s team finishes second. Would Lithuania’s big men, Jonas Valanciunas, Robertas Javtokas and Paulius Jankunas, and maybe even emerging star Donatas Motiejunas, tilt the balance against the Puerto Ricans? The Lithuanians would appear to be the favorites is that match-up does materialize.

Should an all-European final four happen (which would either require all four Europeans to top their groups and win their respective Quarter-Finals, or – very unlikely – all four to finish second in their groups and win their Quarters), Russia would face off with Greece – a team they have beaten in their last six competitive games, while Lithuania would get a chance for revenge over the Macedonian team that broke their hearts and those of their fans at EuroBasket.

The two Semi-Final winners will book places for London, while the losers will face off in a battle for the third spot.

It’s anyone’s guess who would win the three games. But really, with so many variables to take into consideration before the qualifying tournament, plenty of other scenarios could unfold.

The players on all the teams have cause to dream they will make it to London.

Culled from FIBA.com