Adamawa election: The actors and factors

It is also not in dispute that the choices both political parties make must take into consideration, the heterogeneous complexities and demographics of the Adamawa political landscape. Adamawa State is a multi-religious, multi-ethnic society. It is, perhaps, the most diverse and most complex state that best approximates to the diversity in Nigeria.One sociological account has it […]

It is also not in dispute that the choices both political parties make must take into consideration, the heterogeneous complexities and demographics of the Adamawa political landscape.
 Adamawa State is a multi-religious, multi-ethnic society. It is, perhaps, the most diverse and most complex state that best approximates to the diversity in Nigeria.
One sociological account has it that there are more than eighty ethnic groups in Adamawa State and the religious belief of the people is evenly spread in the main, between Islam and Christianity.
 But religion and ethnicity is not all that make Adamawa politics a tough nut for the bookmakers to crack. The concentration and diversity of political bigwigs in the state make its politics even more difficult to predict.
 Therefore, the challenge before the two leading political parties in the October 11 governorship election in the state is how to come about a candidate whose colour will radiate through all the ethnic and religious circles of the state.
For the ruling PDP, the candidates cleared by the Senator Ibrahim Mantu-led Screening Committee include: Nuhu Ribadu, Awwal Tukur, Mohammed Modibbo, Idi Hong, Marcus Gundidri, Buba Marwa, Abubakar Girei, Umar Ardo, Ahmed Gulak, James Barka, Jerry Kundusi, Andrawus Sawa and Aliyu Kama. It was after the incumbent acting governor of the state, Umar Fintiri, protested his exclusion from the contest that the party’s leadership gave its nod to Fintiri to be included among the PDP candidates for the election.
 The APC Screening Committee, headed by Chief Oluwarotimi Akeredolu met with seven aspirants, namely: Senator Bindo Jibrilla, Senator Hassan Barata, Emmanuel Bello, Dahiru Bobbo, Boss Mustapha, Ibrahim Mijinyawa Yayaji and Yakubu Tsala.
 Among the fourteen aspirants for the PDP’s ticket, ten of them are from the central senatorial zone; three from the northern senatorial zone and one candidate from the southern zone.
Also among the APC’s seven aspirants, four are from the central senatorial zone; two from the northern zone and one from the southern zone.
 It thus seems that there is a common sense of agitation that the next governor of the state needs to emerge from the central senatorial zone. This could be as a result of the fact that the central zone had not produced a governor of the state since 1999. Both former governors Boni Haruna and Murtala Nyako are from the northern and southern zones respectively.
 Although media reports have it that the PDP aspirants met with President Goodluck Jonathan during the week ahead of the party’s primary election slated for Saturday, a source at the national headquarters of the PDP said that the party was yet to reveal to the aspirants the membership of the delegates that will elect the flag-bearer of the party, and the President’s meeting with the aspirants might not be unconnected to unveiling the thinking of the Villa as to who amongst them (the aspirants) should fly the flag of the party.
 In the case of the APC, the leader of the party in the state is former Vice President Atiku Abubakar. Atiku was himself elected governor of Adamawa State in 1999 before he was elevated to the position of Vice President – a situation that paved the way for Boni Haruna, as his running mate, to emerge as the substantive governor of Adamawa State.
Atiku, it is believed, wields considerable influence in Adamawa State politics and what he has going for him is his capacity to accommodate all the divergent sentiments in the state.
 It is commonly believed among the Christians in the state that Atiku made it possible for a Christian to emerge as governor of the state for the first time.
It is also believed that all the contenders for the APC ticket are associates of Atiku and his decision to stay aloof while the flag-bearer of his party emerges could be so designed not to hurt his friends and some voting constituencies.
 An aide to the former Vice  President told this writer that “For reasons best known to him, Atiku is not going to influence the democratic process through which the flag-bearer of the APC in the Adamawa governorship election is going to emerge.
 “If you take into consideration his pedigree as an advocate of constitutionalism and promoter of democratic fair-play, you will not expect that he would influence the process.
 “But much more than Atiku’s disposition to politics is the need to keep the peace in Adamawa intact after the election.
 “That is why he has been sounding notes of warning to the PDP not to jeopardize the relative peace in the state on account of politics.”
 It will be recalled that shortly after the impeachment of Governor Murtala Nyako, Atiku issued a press release noting that he will not influence the process through which the APC will produce its flag-bearer for the election.
 How the political actors manage the complex situation of Adamawa politics, and the assurances they can give to the people in keeping the peace in the state, will determine the direction the voters will go when campaign begins.
Sanni is a writer and political strategist. He lives in Abuja.