Adamawa politics: The storm is not yet over

The enduring political logjam in Adamawa State took a dramatic dimension last week with the ruling by a Federal High Court in Abuja, voiding the emergence of Alhaji Adamu Fintiri as acting governor and halting the by-election that was fixed for yesterday. Even with the swearing in of Bala Ngilari as the new governor, there […]

The enduring political logjam in Adamawa State took a dramatic dimension last week with the ruling by a Federal High Court in Abuja, voiding the emergence of Alhaji Adamu Fintiri as acting governor and halting the by-election that was fixed for yesterday. Even with the swearing in of Bala Ngilari as the new governor, there appears to be no silver lining in the clouds that the storm in Adamawa politics is yet over.

Dateline: Wednesday October 8, 2014. The venue was the Multi-Purpose Hall of the popular Muna Hotel located in Yola, the Adamawa State capital. The event was an expanded stakeholders’ meeting convened by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) ahead of the aborted governorship by-election in the State which had been scheduled for  last Saturday October 11. In attendance at that crucial meeting was the INEC chairman, Professor Attahiru Jega, the Inspector General of Police, former acting governor of Adamawa State, Alhaji Ahmadu Fintiri who was the PDP candidate in the proposed by-election as well as other parties’ candidates, including relevant stakeholders. The meeting was being hosted by the Adamawa Stat Resident Electoral Commissioner, Kassim Gaidam. The main thrusts of the meeting were for INEC to brief stakeholders on its level of preparedness for the by-election and also interact with the stakeholders on modalities for the conduct of a hitch-free poll. As at the time of the meeting the State INEC had already commenced the distribution of sensitive and non-sensitive materials to all the 21 local government areas of the State with the exception of Madagali and Michika where insurgents were still holding sway. Similarly, no fewer than 200 electoral officers were trained for the exercise while a total of 100 vehicles were procured, according to the State’s Resident Electoral Commissioner, Kassim Gaidam who also disclosed that other ad-hoc staff had been mobilized from States like Rivers, Bayelsa and Ondo for the conduct of the election.
Midway into the meeting, however, INEC chairman Professor Jega received a phone call from the Commission’s director of Legal Services who called from Abuja to announce that a court had just delivered judgment restraining the commission from conducting the election. Jega then called off the meeting prompting a visibly distraught and shocked Fintri to hurriedly leave the venue with his associates to the Government House.
Not long thereafter there was a brief change of guard’s ceremony at the Government House, Yola between Fintiri and Barrister Bala Ngirari, former deputy to the impeached Governor Nyako. Despite last-minute attempts by the embattled Fintiri who vowed to appeal the judgment of the Abuja Federal High Court that ordered him to vacate his office immediately, Ngilari was sworn in to take over the reins of power thus opening another chapter in the enduring political drama in the Sunshine State.
Elsewhere at the temporary Stadium in Yola, finishing touches were being put on arrangements to host the grand rally for the candidate of the opposition APC, Senator Jibrilla Bindo. Although APC presidential aspirant Atiku Abubakar was already on ground for the meeting, former Head of State General Muhammadu Buhari was said to have been air borne on his way to Yola when the court judgment was delivered. Other bigwigs of the opposition party that were expected to grace the occasion and make political statements were APC national leader, Asiwaju Ahmed Bola Tinubu, Kano State Governor, Alhaji Rabiu Muha Kwankwaso. They were preparing to take off from Abuja to Yola when the judgment was delivered thereby prompting them to cancel the trip.
All these happened on the eve of the day when President Goodluck Jonathan was expected to lead other chieftains of the ruling PDP to the Grand Finale of the Adamawa State governorship campaign which was billed to take place at the Mahmud Ribadu Square, Yola. The earlier publicized rally was to be attended by Vice President Namadi Sambo, the national chairman of the PDP, Alhaji Adamu Muazu, members of the national executive committee of the party, Board of Trustees (BoT), members of the National Assembly, PDP State governors as well as stakeholders in Adamawa State and the North East geo-political zone. Consequent upon the court ruling the planned PDP grand finale of the Adamawa state by-election campaign was also aborted.

Genesis and Nemesis:
For political watchers, the events that preceded last week Wednesday’s court ruling have set the stage for another twist in the recurring epics that have thrown Adamawa State into the quicksand of political instability. The removal of Fintiri and emergence of Ngilari has brought to seven the number of times the Sunshine State had witnessed change of guards without necessarily going to the polls. Although the state had three governorship elections after the 2007 one that brought in Murtala Nyako, the last three governors it produced from July to September were without going through the electoral process.
The current logjam began with the process that climaxed in the dramatic impeachment of erstwhile Governor Nyako which resulted in the emergence of his former Speaker, Ahmadu Fintiri, and last week’s swearing in of Nyako’s former deputy Bala Ngilari as governor. Nyako, along with four of his colleagues had in October last year defected from the ruling PDP to the APC and by mid-July this year the Adamawa State Assembly served him and his deputy with impeachment notices which was largely perceived as a backlash of his altercation with President Jonathan through a memo addressed to the Northern Governors.
Ngilari remained in the PDP despite Nyako’s defection and thus assumed the status of the ruling party’s leader in the State. But when the Assembly wanted to impeach him with Nyako, he was said to have sought refuge from PDP stakeholders in the State who ironically disowned him insisting that if the House dropped charges against him, they would not support the impeachment move.  After a stakeholders and elders meeting over the impeachment, a communiqué was issued stating in part: “The impeachment of the governor and his deputy leading to the conduct of a by-election in the state within the constitutionally specified period of three months represents the best solution to the political and governmental crises bedevilling the state since the coming of the administration into office.”
Although a middle course was worked out for Ngilari to resign and stave off an impeachment it was the same PDP stakeholders who were among the first to have congratulated him following his inauguration after last week’s ouster of Fintiri. Some of them have even gone ahead to change their posters to bear their photographs juxtaposed with that of Ngilari.
For some analysts the process of impeaching Nyako may have been carried out successfully, but that of getting his successor became the albatross. Umar Ardo, one of the PDP governorship aspirants said he was disappointed with the participation of Fintiri in the botched by-election, which according to him had posed a huge moral burden that eventually led to his ouster. Ardo who was a member of the communiqué committee that had supported the impeachment process blamed PDP stakeholders for not stamping their authority on the matter.

Fintiri and the ‘Fulani Calabash’ theory:
Having assumed office as acting governor, Fintiri was said to have made a political statement that analysts believed became his greatest undoing. A minority from Madagali local government area, Fintiri was alleged to have stated that he had broken the Fulani Calabash in Adamawa politics, implying he had broken the jinx of the Fulani hegemony in the politics of the State.  This was said to have not gone down well with the people who were said to have felt betrayed over his impeachment of Nyako and hence vowed to scuttle his election bid. They preferred to support the APC candidate Senator Jibrilla Bindo who,  though hails from the minority Jaiye speaking tribe from Mubi North local government area of the state, was loved among the Fulani because of his linguistic and cultural affinity with them.
This was said to have found expression in the resentment that reportedly greeted Fintiri during his campaign tours. For instance, he was said to have been prevented from entering places like Maiha, Toungo even as is convoy was allegedly stoned in Ganye while pandemonium was said to have greeted his campaign visit to Shelleng. His media aide, Solomon Kumanga, however, dismissed the allegations, saying they were mere propaganda by the opposition APC.
Fintiri’s problems were said to have been exacerbated by his perceived over-ambition.  Although a commitment was said to have been extracted from him after emerging as the PDP candidate to the effect that he would not run in the 2015 election, he was quoted to have said that only God could determine his political fate in 2015, prompting many people, including the hierarchy of the PDP to become suspicious of him. Similarly prominent elite, as well as some traditional rulers, were said to have become uncomfortable with Fintiri’s government hence the perception that he was not going to emerge victorious in the botched by-election. Even Nuhu Ribadu, one of the aspirants who had stepped down for Fintiri, based on the agreement that Fintiri would not run in 2015, was said to have later realized that the former would not honour the agreement; hence he was said to have been covertly working for the success of the APC candidate. Little wonder the Director-General of his governorship campaign organization, Kelvin Peter, was said to be among those that graced the inauguration of Ngilari.
Based on the foregoing, Sunday Trust gathered that the Presidency also became worried over Fintiri’s ambition and the PDP’s fate in the Adamawa by-election. Consequently, the Presidency was said to have commissioned three separate teams to independently assess the chances of the party at the poll; each of which was said to have given the party low chances. It was, therefore, hardly surprising when the court judgment halted the election and directed the swearing of Ngilari which was viewed within the presidency and PDP hierarchy as a fall-back option for the party retaining the State ahead of 2015.

Ngilari’s dilemma:
Even with his emergence as the new governor not many analysts are convinced that the storm in Adamawa politics is yet over. At his inauguration ceremony, key members of the PDP leadership of the PDP in the state, including the chairman and his secretary were reportedly absent because they were not invited. Rather, the ceremony was said to have been largely attended by pro- Nyako loyalists raising concerns that the impeached former governor may be exercising some influence on Ngilari and his government.
Another dilemma that Ngilari may be facing is the fact that the ousted acting governor, who hails from the same ward with him, has reverted to his position as Speaker, thereby creating what some analysts describe an imbalance in the political equation.  Furthermore some believe that perceived political rivalry between Ngilari and Fintiri in the past may be rekindled, thereby creating more crisis in the state.
But Maxwell Duku, who served as Ngilari’s press secretary while he was deputy governor, said all differences between the new governor and Fintiri were resolved by party stakeholders at a recent meeting in the State capital. He also insisted that the State PDP chairman and his secretary were absent at the swearing in ceremony because they were attending a meeting with INEC. Dismissing claims over the possibility of the Ngilari government being hijacked by Nyako and his elements Dukku: “Even when Nyako defected to the APC, Ngilari remained in the PDP hence his loyalty to the ruling party.”

APC’s new game plan:
Even with the oracular conviction that it was going to wrest power from the ruling PDP in the state during the botched governorship by-election, the opposition APC nonetheless considered the development as a blessing in disguise. Sources within the party told Sunday Trust that given the unpredictable nature of the PDP, the opposition party was hardly surprised by the ruling of the Abuja Federal High Court.
For Atiku Abubakar, who is the leader of the APC in Adamawa State, the development provides an opportunity to re-strategize on how to hold onto the APC’s structures in the state and also sell his preferred choice of candidate that was defeated at the part’s governorship primary. Alhaji Yayaji Ibrahim Mijinyawa, who was favoured by Atiku for the by-election, was defeated by Senator Bindo who was said to have been backed by Nyako’s camp, thus prompting Atiku to be ‘spending with caution’ for his campaign in the build up to the by-election. Shortly after the court ruling on the by-election was made known, Atiku, who was already on ground in Yola to supervise arrangements for the APC’s rally, was said to have convened an meeting with stakeholders to review the situation during which he presented the idea of getting a new governorship candidate for 2015, an idea that Sunday Trust gathered was received with mixed feelings.
This is even as two of the defeated aspirants namely: Senator Barata, who represents Atiku’s Southern zone and Yakubu Tsala, an Atiku loyalist for over 20 years, were said to have defected to the ruling PDP after losing out in the APC primaries. Added to this is what party sources described as the anti-party posture of some pro-Nyako elements in the APC who were said to have attended Ngilari’s swearing in ceremony. They include Abdulrahman Shuaibu, a former commissioner in Nyako’s government, Dr Haliru Hamma, former SUBEB chairman and Dr. Salihu Bakari, a former commissioner for local government under the  Nyako administration.
The recent development in Adamawa State is therefore seen to have provided the opportunity for Atiku to edge out the pro-Nyako elements that were seen to be in control of the party structures at the ward and local government levels, even in the aftermath of his impeachment. While Nyako was in power Assembly members and Council chairmen were said to have been involved in the formation of the party’s structures at the ward and council levels. Although the later defected to the PDP after his impeachment, the pro-Nyako elements now in the hierarchy of the PDP are said to be sill controlling the APC structures at those levels.
It is with a view to dealing with these perceived anti party activities that a committee headed by a former APC governorship aspirant, Dahiru Bobbo, is said to have been constituted by the party to investigate conducts by  such characters with a view to bringing them to book. If the committee goes ahead and wields the big stick on the perceived erring members, who are mostly pro-Nyako elements, more cracks may emerge on the wall of the party in the state as the battle for supremacy between Nyako and Atiku over the party’s structures ahead of 2015 will resume in earnest.  

More fireworks and the gathering storm:
To many analysts, the dust raised by the current political imbroglio in Adamawa State is far from being over. This is even more so that the impeached former governor, Nyako is still hoping that his removal would still be reversed by the law courts. Following his impeachment, Nyako had gone to court seeking the nullification of his removal from office on the grounds that the process was flawed.
Ahmed Sajoh, Nyako’s media aide who confirmed that his principal was still going on with his court case said: “Now that the process of Ngilari’s removal has been reversed on the basis of the illegality of it, we are confident that the purported removal of Nyako would also be reversed by the court.” Similarly, the ousted former acting governor, Fintiri has already filed a case at an Abuja Court of Appeal seeking, among other things, the setting aside of the judgment of the Federal Hight Court. Although the State chapter of the party reportedly distanced itself from the appeal, Fintiri’s chief press secretary, Solomon Kumangar, said his boss was going ahead with the case.
As at press time both Ngilari and Fintiri had separately travelled to Abuja allegedly on the invitation of the PDP national leadership and the presidency. Ngilari had travelled after dissolving the state cabinet under Fintiri and appointing a chief of Staff. It was not clear whether the two ‘rivals’ would be brought to a round table for possible reconciliation, even as feelers had started emerging that Ngilari’s supporters, especially from among his ethnic community, had started selling the idea for him to run in 2015, a move which his former press secretary, Maxwell denied knowledge of.
Attempts to speak with the leadership of both the PDP and the APC in Yola failed as their executives could not be reached. While several calls put across to the PDP chairman and his secretary was unanswered, the Chairman of the APC responded to a text message saying she had travelled to Abuja.