Adedeji urges export complexity in Nigeria’s economic reset

Nigeria must urgently rethink its export strategy and move away from its long-standing dependence on crude oil and other raw materials if it hopes to achieve sustainable prosperity, the Executive Chairman of the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS), Dr Zacch Adedeji, has warned. Adedeji delivered the message during his maiden Distinguished Personality Lecture at Obafemi Awolowo […]

Nigeria must urgently rethink its export strategy and move away from its long-standing dependence on crude oil and other raw materials if it hopes to achieve sustainable prosperity, the Executive Chairman of the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS), Dr Zacch Adedeji, has warned.

Adedeji delivered the message during his maiden Distinguished Personality Lecture at Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU), Ile-Ife, where he argued that Nigeria’s economic challenge is not a lack of resources but a lack of productive complexity.

Speaking on the theme “From Potential to Prosperity: Export-Led Economy,” he said economic success in today’s world is determined less by volume of production and more by the sophistication of what countries produce and export.

“Economic growth is no longer about producing more of the same things,” Adedeji said.

“It is about producing different and more complex things that embed knowledge, skills and innovation.”

He noted that Nigeria’s export structure has remained largely unchanged for decades, with crude oil and a narrow range of primary commodities dominating foreign trade.

While the oil and gas sector is technologically advanced and integrated into global markets, he said this progress has failed to spill over into the wider economy, where productivity remains low and industrial capacity weak.

“The contradiction is stark,” Adedeji observed. “We have a globally connected oil sector, yet the rest of the economy remains shallow, informal and low in productivity.”

Data from the Harvard Atlas of Economic Complexity cited during the lecture showed that Nigeria added only six new products to its export basket between 2008 and 2023, an unusually small number for an economy of its size.

This limited diversification, Adedeji said, has left the country vulnerable to global price shocks and restricted opportunities for industrial learning and job creation.

According to him, countries that rely on a narrow set of low-complexity exports often experience slower growth and greater volatility.

“Nigeria today is positioned to take advantage of very few diversification opportunities using its existing productive knowledge,” he said, attributing this to decades of underinvestment in manufacturing and skills development.

To illustrate alternative pathways, Adedeji pointed to countries such as Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Indonesia, which deliberately integrated into global value chains.

Vietnam, in particular, he said, transformed its economy by becoming an assembly hub for electronics and manufactured goods, importing components while exporting finished products.

“In doing so, Vietnam absorbed foreign technology, managerial practices and industrial discipline, gradually building domestic capacity,” he explained.

By contrast, he noted that countries that depended excessively on natural resources or failed to continuously upgrade their industrial base, including South Africa and Brazil, saw early advantages eroded over time.
“Productive capabilities are not permanent,” he warned. “Without constant upgrading, economies lose ground.”

For Nigeria, the stakes are even higher. Adedeji cautioned that reliance on natural endowments is not only risky but regressive, as it crowds out long-term investment in skills, innovation, and manufacturing.

While acknowledging ongoing economic reforms under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, he stressed that fiscal adjustment alone would not be sufficient.

“The ultimate objective must be the building of collective national capability,” Adedeji said, adding that Nigeria must reposition itself as a producer of value-added goods rather than merely a supplier of raw materials.

Without such a shift, he warned, Nigeria risks remaining “rich in resources, but poor in outcomes” in an increasingly knowledge-driven global economy.