AfDB projects 3.9 GDP growth for Nigeria, 15.3% inflation

The African Development Bank (AfDB) yesterday projected 3.9 per cent GDP growth for Nigeria and 15.3 per cent inflation even as it insisted that Africa’s economic resilience remains firm amid global headwinds. The projection was contained in its 2026 Africa Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook (MEO) report released on Monday but a statement on the report […]

The African Development Bank (AfDB) yesterday projected 3.9 per cent GDP growth for Nigeria and 15.3 per cent inflation even as it insisted that Africa’s economic resilience remains firm amid global headwinds.

The projection was contained in its 2026 Africa Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook (MEO) report released on Monday but a statement on the report was issued yesterday.

In the outlook for key macroeconomic indicators in Africa, 2026-27, countries were classified into three categories: good performers (green), fair performers (yellow), and weak performers (red)

Real GDP growth rates of 5 percent or more are green, 0–4.99 percent are yellow, and negative growth are red.

In the green category for real GDP growth are 22 countries including Benin (6.9); Burkina Faso (6.1); Congo (5.6); Côte d’Ivoire (6.5); Djibouti (6.1); Ethiopia (7.6); Gambia (5.1); among others.

Nigeria and other countries are in the Yellow category while the country’s inflation projection is classified as red.

According to the report, Mauritania has the lowest inflation rate of 1.2 per cent followed closely by Central African Republic with 1.4.

According to the report, despite ongoing regional and global headwinds, Africa continues to demonstrate impressive resilience and maintains its status as a global growth frontier.

The report underscores that Africa outpaced the global average in 2025 as real GDP surged to 4.2 percent, up from 3.1 per cent in 2024, comfortably eclipsing the 3.1 per cent world average.

A key finding in the report is the “broad-based” surge, with growth exceeding 5 per cent in 22 African countries, and topping 7 per cent in six, bolstered by easing inflationary pressures, improved macroeconomic management and favourable agricultural conditions.

The report projected Africa’s real GDP growth to stabilise at 4.3 percent in 2026 and grow further to 4.5 percent in 2027.

The report further added that 12 of the 20 fastest-growing economies in the world in 2025 were African.

It stated that inflation is declining, with average inflation estimated at 13.6 percent in 2025, down from 21.8 percent in 2024; further reductions are projected for 2026 and 2027.

“Foreign direct investment rebounded sharply in 2024, rising by more than 75% to reach $97 billion,” it added.

Also remittance flows rebounded strongly in 2024, rising by more than 14 percent to $104.6 billion—offsetting the 6 percent decline recorded in 2023 and making remittances the largest single source of external non-debt financing, surpassing foreign portfolio investment.

In his high-level remarks at the launch, the President of the African Development Bank Group, Dr Sidi Ould Tah, underscored that the continent faces an “important moment when the world is changing, not always in favour of the African continent.”

Citing a difficult landscape of increasing geopolitical fragmentation, trade tensions, and declining global development finance flows, Dr Ould Tah positioned the Bank Group’s Four Cardinal Points agenda as a vital strategic shield, explaining that “each one speaks directly to the challenges this Macro Economic Outlook report has identified and quantified.”

In light of recent developments in the Middle East, Dr Ould Tah noted that the 2026 MEO analysis and projections “were prepared before the current crisis” began.

He added that the Bank Group and partners, including the United Nations Development Programme are currently assessing the potential consequences of the crisis on the continent.

The Bank Group Chief Economist and Vice President for Economic Governance and Knowledge Management, Prof Kevin Urama, expressed optimism that the current crisis would have a limited impact on Africa’s macroeconomic landscape in 2026.

“Africa has held strong in previous shocks, and has the capacity to bounce back after, provided we do not panic and we instead apply the right policy levers,” he said, adding, “In our estimates, if the crisis lasts beyond three months, it might cause a dip of 0.2 percentage point in Africa’s economic growth rate in 2026.”