Africa Faces Economic Paralysis Without Fuel Import Reforms, ARDA Warns 

The African Refiners and Distributors Association (ARDA) has warned that Africa could face total economic paralysis if urgent reforms are not implemented to reduce the continent’s heavy reliance on imported refined petroleum products. ARDA Executive Secretary, Anibor Kragha, said a 30-day halt in petroleum product imports would bring daily life and business to a standstill […]

The African Refiners and Distributors Association (ARDA) has warned that Africa could face total economic paralysis if urgent reforms are not implemented to reduce the continent’s heavy reliance on imported refined petroleum products.

ARDA Executive Secretary, Anibor Kragha, said a 30-day halt in petroleum product imports would bring daily life and business to a standstill across Africa, affecting major cities from Lagos and Johannesburg to Kinshasa, Cairo, and Nairobi.

“If imports were to stop, the collapse wouldn’t just be technical – it would be systemic. Today, Africa is deeply reliant on fuel imports, leaving it exposed to shocks with immediate and far-reaching consequences,” Kragha said.

Despite producing more than five million barrels of crude oil daily, the continent imports over 70% of its refined petroleum products. ARDA warned that such dependence is a “strategic blind spot” that leaves economies, industries, and essential services vulnerable to disruptions in global supply chains.

Aviation, trucking, and construction sectors would be among the first to grind to a halt in the event of an import freeze. Jet fuel shortages would isolate countries, while millions of tonnes of goods, medicines, and food would be stranded in warehouses and ports. Diesel shortages would shut down generators that power hospitals, telecom towers, water systems, and banks. In rural clinics, life-saving equipment would fail; in megacities, water pressure could collapse.

The disruption would also hit mining in South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Zambia. Exports of copper, cobalt, and gold would stop, and oil rigs, haul trucks, and cargo vessels would fall silent. The result: billions of dollars in lost revenue within days.

Although Africa has over 40 refineries, many are outdated, underutilised, or idle. Nigeria, the top oil producer, has a nominal refining capacity of 1.1 million barrels per day, including the new 650,000 bpd Dangote Refinery, but still imports more than half of its fuel needs. The Republic of Congo plans to double crude output to 500,000 bpd, yet its main refinery processes only 24,000 bpd, far below domestic demand.

With Africa’s population projected to reach 2.5 billion by 2050 and energy needs expected to double, ARDA says the gap between demand and local refining capacity will only grow without coordinated action.

At its 2025 ARDA Week conference in Cape Town, held under the theme Africa First, the association outlined a five-pillar plan to secure the continent’s energy future: upgrading refining capacity, harmonising fuel standards, attracting investment, developing infrastructure such as pipelines and depots, and building technical skills.

Kragha urged governments to cut red tape, mobilise domestic capital – including over $4 trillion in pension and sovereign wealth funds – and create strategic fuel reserves. He also called for breaking down intra-African trade barriers to allow fuel, capital, and expertise to flow freely across borders.

“Energy sovereignty must become a continental priority – not just for growth, but for long-term resilience and prosperity,” he said.

ARDA maintains that Africa can turn its dependency into strength if leaders act decisively to expand refining capacity and strengthen energy infrastructure. “Fuel by fuel, refinery by refinery, Africa must power its own future – not in reaction to crisis, but in pursuit of opportunity,” Kragha said.