Aftermath of by-elections: The signs are disturbing for 2027 — Prof. Fage

Professor Kamilu Sani Fage is a professor of political science at the Bayero University Kano’s faculty of social and management sciences. He shares his views on the recently concluded by-elections in Kano and other states in the country; the controversies surrounding them, and what the conduct portends for Nigeria’s democracy and the 2027 general elections. […]

Professor Kamilu Sani Fage is a professor of political science at the Bayero University Kano’s faculty of social and management sciences. He shares his views on the recently concluded by-elections in Kano and other states in the country; the controversies surrounding them, and what the conduct portends for Nigeria’s democracy and the 2027 general elections.

 

By-elections have been conducted and winners have emerged. How would you rate the conduct of the elections, sir?

The by-elections have come and gone, but they have left behind a lot of troubling issues. These issues are worrisome to a large extent. In the first place, reruns are supposed to be conducted within ninety days, and that is what the constitution provides. Any constituency that, for any reason loses its representative should have another elected within that period. Unfortunately, it took INEC almost two years to conduct the reruns. I consider this a gross violation of the laws of the land, and it was one of the major contributory factors to the tension that accompanied the by-elections.

 

There have been complaints about the election, do you think they are valid?

• Why we declared Atiku’s son-in-law wanted – EFCC
• Aftermath of by-elections: Politicians are more desperate in smaller elections – Yahya Abdulkareem

Yes, to some extent. Many of these complaints are tied to the credibility of the process itself. The elections were marred by massive use of money, thuggery, political violence, and rigging. In fact, in some of the affected areas, the people were not really allowed to freely elect their own representatives. Instead, parties mobilised supporters from outside constituencies to come and influence the outcome. That is undemocratic, and very dangerous.

 

What is the implication for conducting rerun elections two years after?

Like I said, the constitution provides for reruns to be conducted within ninety days. INEC’s delay in this case is a clear violation of the law. It is not only unjustifiable but also detrimental to democracy, because it leaves constituencies without representation for years. That delay alone was enough to raise tension before the elections were even held.

Representation is one of the pillars of democracy. For people to be left without a voice in government for two years is not only unfair  but unconstitutional. Constituents have every reason to feel short-changed, and that should be a matter of serious concern.

Because of INEC’s delay, the normal calendar has been disrupted. These constituencies are now forced to operate on a different timeline, which creates inconsistencies in the electoral system. That is another reason why strict adherence to the ninety-day constitutional provision is important.

 

Can you recall where rerun elections have been delayed for this long?

Not that I can readily recall in this magnitude. This was unusual and reflects badly on the management of our electoral system. It is not something that should be normalised because it undermines the spirit of constitutional democracy.

 

What do these by-elections portend in relation to the 2027 general elections?

The by-elections are indicators of what might happen in 2027, and frankly, the signs are disturbing. If the widespread use of money, thugs, violence, and external interference that characterized these elections are repeated on a larger scale, then the survival of our democracy will be at stake.

Free and fair elections are the backbone of democracy. Once they are violated with impunity, the system itself is endangered. That is why politicians must allow democracy to prevail by letting the people choose their representatives in a transparent and credible manner. Unfortunately, what we saw in these by-elections was far from ideal, it was a sham, and that is highly worrisome.