2015: How history will remember Jonathan, Buhari, Jega, Military

If its leadership decides to drag the entire institution to support a betrayal of national trust, what will be lost will be more than opportunities to surmount a critical hurdle by Nigerians. The military will be part of a conspiracy to plunge the nation into new depths of desperation from which it will be difficult […]

If its leadership decides to drag the entire institution to support a betrayal of national trust, what will be lost will be more than opportunities to surmount a critical hurdle by Nigerians. The military will be part of a conspiracy to plunge the nation into new depths of desperation from which it will be difficult to recover. This is not what military men and women signed for, and swore to avoid. There is a future which can provide security ina united and prosperous nation, but no institution is more critical in providing it than our men and women under arms.
Nigerians have sympathized with a once proud and competent military when it became clear that it has been badly let down by the present political leadership. There will be no excuse or sympathy for our military if it lends itself as willing tool to a class of politicians who will render it and other Nigerians worse victims of its own failings and designs. The military has pulled many national chestnuts out of the fire in the past. The verdict of history will ignore its sacrifices to preserve the unity and survival of our nation if it fails to show the highest levels of commitment to the national interest, which is currently entirely manifest in the need for a free and fair election. An overly-political role by military will make this impossible to achieve. The nation will hope that the entire military institution will stand up against abuse of its hallowed values and traditions, and face the future with courage and confidence in a nation that will survive its current challenges and build its future with strong and professional armed forces.
The International Community
The global community has been worried by the paralyzing circumstances in which Nigeria has been plunged in the last few years, because our nation represents so many positive values as an leading African and important developing nation. Those that have followed our history and leadership role, as well as the capacities and potentials of our key institutions are bewildered by the spectacular inroads which terror, corruption and weak leadership have made in our lives. They have followed the painful journey to our present crossroads, and they are holding their breath to see if we will survive and re-build our nation, or descend lower into chaos and uncertainty. The global environment is replete with wrecks and skeletons of states that made series of successive blunders. Many have been sunk by ambitions of rulers who think they are greater than the people; some took their unity and survival for granted; some failed to strike at the right balance between what is practical and what is necessary; and a few had no helping hand during their moments of needs.
Nigerians cannot accuse the world of indifference or hostility. We are generally perceived by the world as an intensely proud people who are used to solving our problems. Still, many nations with stakes in our security and economic wellbeing have agonized over our seeming inability to pull out of our current challenges. A few appear to have turned their backs on us, angry that we dropped the ball at critical moments. Some wonder how a nation with Nigeria’s military, its huge economic and human endowments, as well as an enviable record as survivor can be helped.
The world has found an entry point through our democratic process. This is a door we cannot shut, unless we embark on a dangerous path of living outside the demands of constitutional democracy. Our elections are therefore everyone’s business, and this time the world believes we are at a point when our democracy will undergo its most severe stress test. There is a huge store of private concern that we may not pull through, and a long queue of help, assistance and counsel on helping the electoral process to deliver a verdict that will be respected by Nigerians and save our nation from going deeper into distress. Our weaknesses have created gaping holes in our integrity and capacity to limit foreign interference, and we are now spoken to will the most minimal of respect and decorum. A few countries are lining up to claim credit for delivering on credible elections which will be the first in which an incumbent president will lose. That credit will not be theirs. It will belong to Nigerians, but it will not stop a global celebration of the triumph of global pressure on an important nation to pull back from the brink. It will take a while for Nigeria, under an effective and respected leadership, to restore the balance between appropriate international roles in our affairs, and our right as a people to manage our affairs and solve our problems. Until then, the global community will and should sustain its vigilance over the forthcoming elections, and work with INEC and Nigerians to ensure that the elections are credible, and politicians respect the outcomes. Nigeria can rise again and reclaim its pride of place in the global community. When that happens, the whole world will be the better for it. A severely distressed Nigeria is a major liability to global security.
 
Conclusion
 It is perfectly conceivable that the March/April elections will pass with the most minimum of disputes and new leaders will emerge and lead the nation along the path of greater national security and unity. Sadly, the opposite is also a distinct possibility. What is clear is that Nigerians know all the options being contemplated. The elections can be postponed on grounds of national security, using a pliant legislature and massive inducements. This option merely buys a little time for a leadership that could become desperately mired in more dangerous schemes to stay in power. It will be violently resisted, and will drag the armed forces directly into fighting the Nigerian people. Or, the elections can be so massively rigged, even the international community with its very low bar for Nigerian elections, could reject the outcome. The government that will emerge from rigged elections will literally declare a war on Nigerians. And it will lose, sooner or later. And then, there is the possibility that many Nigerian leaders and elders will prevail on President Jonathan, the armed forces and security agencies and interests that are terrified of change to allow for credible elections and an orderly transition. This tiny group can make a major difference, and their places in history will reserve what they do or fail to do now as its final verdict. For Nigeria, history will record whether we move beyond this election to build national consensus and strategies on dealing with Boko Haram, fighting impunity, curbing corruption, improving how we live with each other like a coat of many colours; or whether we succumb to the temptation to risk further decline and damage because a few of us place themselves above the nation.

Concluded

Dr Baba-Ahmed delivered this address at the Kaduna Roundtable, on February 22, 2015.