An unsurprising surprising election
As the results of Saturday’s presidential elections trickle in, what’s certain from the pattern of voting based on the results declared or published so far is, whoever secures the victory is moving to Aso Villa aware of the power of the people and that it’s no longer business as usual. Even though some of the […]
As the results of Saturday’s presidential elections trickle in, what’s certain from the pattern of voting based on the results declared or published so far is, whoever secures the victory is moving to Aso Villa aware of the power of the people and that it’s no longer business as usual. Even though some of the opposition parties are contesting the electoral process, with Dino Melaye vying to be the year’s catalyst akin to Peter Godsday Orubebe’s collocation centre spectacle in 2015, the “third-force” parties, particularly the Labour Party, achieving seemingly insurmountable victories, were not foreseen by the incumbent party’s prognostications.
I was one of the sceptics dazzled by the performance of Labour Party’s flag-bearer, Peter Obi, because, even in my most patronising predictions, I never envisaged their electoral conquests to capture Bola Tinubu’s Lagos State, along with Plateau and Nasarawa states, the home states of the All Progressives Congress Chairman, Senator Abdullahi Adamu, and the Director-General of APC’s Presidential Campaign Council, Governor Simon Lalong, respectively.
Notably, even President Muhammadu Buhari’s home state succumbed to the sway of the Peoples Democratic Party’s Atiku Abubakar, along with Governor Nasir El-Rufai’s Kaduna, despite a robust campaign and assurances to secure their support for the APC.
Regrettably, the voting trend that emerged is not a cause for jubilation. It is the result of a distressing impulse to align with and cater to our primal affiliations, and the incoming government will need ample time to begin the healing process for our gravely battered nation.
When Atiku emerged as PDP’s flag-bearer in a closely-contested primaries, after the party claimed it wasn’t bound by the APC-type rotational arrangement, Nigeria’s political chessboard became a chaos. However, the APC was at risk of an imposition if it flirted with the idea of another Northern Muslim candidate after Buhari’s eight-year term. Among the contenders, Tinubu stood out as he possessed three key attributes – political pedigree, financial might, and Muslim background – that matched those of Atiku. Both politicians, ironically, were also disadvantaged in their bid for the presidency. Atiku was perceived as seeking to replace a fellow Muslim and northerner, while Tinubu had to persuade the Christian electorate to support his Muslim-Muslim ticket.
Peter Obi’s popularity, thus, was propelled by this predicament that both Atiku and Tinubu faced. His candidacy, beyond the partisan and intellectual analyses of where he ranks against the others, doused the concerns of the electorate who felt marginalised by the choices fielded by the nation’s two largest political parties. What was mocked as a dance for his southeast stronghold instantly became a widespread campaign to replace the APC and the PDP. While the sentiment that propelled Obi’s candidacy is rooted in a legitimate grievance, it’s worth noting that politics is not a theatre for moral contortionism.
Peter Obi’s candidacy is a logical choice for Christians who felt erased in the presidential race. The endorsement of Obi by churches is no different than Muslim candidates who lobbied for endorsements from notable Muslim clerics and organisations to appeal to Muslim voters. Obi’s significant following, which initially emerged as a reaction to the Muslim candidates, offered a sense of diversity to those who needed it – a Christian candidate on the ballot.
It would be overly simplistic to suggest that there were no other Christian or southern options besides Peter Obi in the presidential race. Out of the 18 candidates who contested in the 2023 election, 11 were Christians, and only seven were Muslims. Additionally, 13 of the candidates were from the southern region, and only five were from the North. Thus, it would be inaccurate to portray the election as a complete disregard for Christians or southerners.
During this suspense-ridden wait for the election results, a Twitter user suggested that Vice President Yemi Osinbajo should have been the APC’s flag-bearer to ease the growing polarisation and cater to the Christian electorate. While this proposal may seem commendable, it’s worth noting that Osinbajo contested in the primaries and failed to secure the nomination. He didn’t even come in second place, which was taken by Rotimi Amaechi, a fellow Christian and southerner.
Furthermore, if Osinbajo had emerged as the APC candidate against a political heavyweight like Atiku, the Christian votes would have been split between him and Peter Obi, ultimately leading to Atiku’s victory.
Despite the reactions to the Muslim-Muslim ticket, it was arguably the most practical choice for the APC in response to the PDP fielding a northern Muslim candidate. Politicians exist to perform for their strong voting blocs, and Muslims have played a significant role in Nigeria’s elections. Peter Obi’s coming rode on this vacuum, with three Muslims representing three of the top four political parties in the race. He attracted the South East, who felt it was their turn, the northern Christians, who sought to produce Tinubu’s running mate, and Christians who opposed the idea of another northern Muslim president after Buhari.
Obi also came from an ethnic group with a valid grouse against the Nigerian state, which seems to have conspired against their bid to be president, and he’s pointed them towards the path of exerting their long-suppressed power to undo that. The Igbo have long been side-lined in the Nigerian presidential race, but this may also be attributed to their reluctance to use their numerical size to their advantage. With Peter Obi’s successful campaign and popularity in the 2023 elections, it sends a message to the political establishment that the Igbo can no longer accept tokenism.
The election outcome must be approached with caution, though. Some individuals I spoke with expressed concern that if a Muslim candidate, particularly Tinubu’s Muslim-Muslim ticket, were to win despite objections from certain churches and Christians, it could be taken as evidence that Muslims do not need Christian running mates to win presidential elections, which doesn’t seem to be the purpose of APC’s strategy to counter Atiku. The same could be said if a Christian wins—that they do not have to patronise Muslims to win an election. The next president of Nigeria must cut the head of this poisonous snake before it strikes.