Analysts warn of rising fuel price over Israel/Iranian conflict
Analysts at Comercio Partners yesterday warned that the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran might affect global crude oil supply, which could impact Nigeria’s economy negatively. This concern was raised in their May Macro Report titled “Nigeria’s Inflation Slows in May, But Trouble May Be Ahead”, published on June 16th, 2025. According to the report, […]
Analysts at Comercio Partners yesterday warned that the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran might affect global crude oil supply, which could impact Nigeria’s economy negatively.
This concern was raised in their May Macro Report titled “Nigeria’s Inflation Slows in May, But Trouble May Be Ahead”, published on June 16th, 2025.
According to the report, the geopolitical standoff could create fresh supply shocks that may drive up global oil prices.
While Nigeria is an oil-producing nation, the report cautioned that such price surges may not necessarily benefit the country.
Daily Trust reports that crude prices have been on a rising trajectory since the war started with Brent Crude selling above $75 per barrel.
A higher crude price could signal higher fuel prices at the local market amidst fear of a litre of premium motor spirit hitting N1000 per litre. Fuel is currently sold between N870 and N920.
“For Nigeria, where fuel prices are no longer subsidized and are now tied to international benchmarks, such developments carry serious economic implications,” the analysts noted.
According to the report, despite the presence of the Dangote Refinery, the country is still exposed.
“Crude remains the primary input, and higher international oil prices translate into more expensive production and distribution,” the report said.
A surge in international crude prices would therefore raise production and distribution costs.
“If oil becomes more expensive, the price of petrol in Nigeria—currently around N825 per litre—could rise to N1,000,” they projected.
According to the report, this would likely translate into higher transportation costs, feeding into broader inflationary pressures.
The situation, they revealed, may be worsened by climate-related challenges and rising insecurity.