ANC’s electoral setback: A turning point in South African politics

The World is watching with keen interest the political development of South Africa. The country’s ruling African National Congress (ANC) has begun negotiating for alliances with other political parties to form a coalition government. The ANC once led by the late global icon Nelson Mandela dominated South African politics for the past three decades until […]

The World is watching with keen interest the political development of South Africa. The country’s ruling African National Congress (ANC) has begun negotiating for alliances with other political parties to form a coalition government.

The ANC once led by the late global icon Nelson Mandela dominated South African politics for the past three decades until losing its majority in national and provincial elections held on May 29.

The party – which used to secure more than 60% in all elections since 1994, except in 2019, when its share dipped to 57.5% – got only 40.18% of the vote. This has put it in a difficult position to form a government on its own.

Meanwhile, ANC leader and the country’s President, Cyril Ramaphosa, who is seeking re-election on the platform of the ANC and as widely expected, the black-dominated ruling party has for the first time since 1994 failed to win the parliamentary majority of votes in South Africa.

• Sokoto governor names new road after Seyi Tinubu
• I see exponential growth in the global market for African art – Mordi

The ANC currently has 159 lawmakers in the 400-member National Assembly, while the centre-right main opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) has 87, MK Party has 58, and EFF has 39, the right-wing Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) has 17 seats, and the remaining 14 parties in parliament have between nine and one seats each.

Under South Africa’s constitution, the party or coalition that wins a majority vote and at least 201 of the 400 parliamentary seats produces the president of the republic.

With less than 43% of the vote, the ANC now treads uncomfortable ground, compelled to negotiate with opposition parties to maintain its grip on power. This shift sparks concern among ANC officials, prompting discussions of a National Unity Government to salvage its standing. At the other end, opposition parties position themselves strategically, poised to influence the nation’s political trajectory.

Forces that dip ANC’s chances

According to analysts in a chat with Daily Trust Sunday, the main issue that contributed to the ANC’s dipping and effective loss of its majority was its in-fighting. It failed to manage internally and non-implementation of the promises it made to the people on assumption of power.

ANC’s decline reflects the disillusionment of its core constituency, the black majority, who feel let down by unfulfilled promises of opportunity and dismayed by rampant corruption within the government and party ranks.

Dr Suleiman A. Suleiman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Pyramid Political Insights, a non-partisan political, policy and public affairs consultancy said two things of consequence happened in the election.

“The first is that the ANC lost its majority for the first time in 30 years. But the ANC did not lose the majority because the traditional opposition parties like the Democratic Alliance (DA) or the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) are improving. If you look carefully at the results, you will see that both the DA and EFF achieved results that are just about the same as they did in the last election in 2019.

“The real change is Jacob Zuma’s MK party, which received nearly 15% of the votes. But the MK party is essentially a breakaway faction of the ANC, which was formed only in December last year. This means that the ANC effectively lost its majority due to in-fighting they could not manage internally,’’ he said.

He however noted that the election means two things for the ANC. “First, it means that they have serious work to do to hold themselves together. The ANC is one of the oldest continuous political parties in Africa, and I think they will have to refresh some of their internal party mechanisms to make them better responsive and able to handle internal conflicts.

“They certainly cannot afford another breakaway like that of the MK party going into the near future. Secondly, the ANC must govern South Africa better. The further they go beyond 1994, the more their performance in defeating the apartheid system recedes into the background. You now have voters who have no memory of what it meant to live under apartheid. So anti-apartheid heroism will no longer sell.’’

Dr Suleiman said that the ANC needs to demonstrate to South Africans a whole new agenda of economic governance that ticks the boxes of economic opportunity for millions of South Africans, black or not, but essentially black.

However, on his part, an ex-diplomat and columnist, Ilyasu Gadu said the results of the election confirmed the shifting grounds in South Africa’s politics adding that securing just less than 44 per cent shows that ANC has lost quite a lot of ground in the politics of South Africa.

According to him, it’s an indication that the core constituency of the party, which is the black majority of the population, is disappointed at the lack of opportunities promised by the ruling party.

“Over the years, support for ANC among the people of South Africa has been dwindling steadily due to non-implementation of the promises it made to the people on assumption of power. The condition of most South Africans has not improved considerably and indeed it has regressed. The SA people have come to feel that the ANC takes them for granted without making good on its promises.

“The condition in South Africa generally has not improved and indeed has deteriorated in some areas leading to dissatisfaction that the ANC seems not to know how to manage the power it got after overturning white minority rule in the country. The majority of black people have now come to see the new black rulers as being the same as the white rulers under apartheid only difference being in their skin colour.

“Many South Africans across the colour divide now yearn for change and by the elections, they are willing to shift their allegiances to bring that about,’’ he said.

Gadu added that electorates’ refusal to grant the ANC its traditional majority and their perceived rampant government and party corruption, which has exacerbated poverty and hindered the delivery of promised amenities, could signal a potential electoral downfall for the ANC in the foreseeable future.

Evaluation of the state of South Africa’s democracy

Both analysts praised the smooth conduct of the elections, noting the process, from organisation – outcome of the polls, was largely free from disruptions. Their assessment was further supported by reports from foreign election observers.

“I think the election has not weakened South Africa’s democracy in any way. If anything, the outcome has strengthened it. When a dominant party is successfully challenged to the extent that it loses its majority compared to the six previous elections that simply means there’s been more democracy.

“Also, that the election has not been mired by allegations of malpractice or violence, despite all the issues, means that the fundamentals of South African democracy are still strong and growing stronger,’’ Dr Suleiman added.

For Gadu, the elections consolidated the democracy in the country with the organisation and the outcome. “It was hitch-free to a large extent and the outcome reflected the wishes of the people of South Africa.

“All the agencies involved in organising the elections, the various political parties that took part attested to and agreed that the elections were free, peaceful and fair. The foreign election observers confirmed this in their reports. The election indeed represents a high watermark in the democratic development of South Africa.”

Lessons/insights for African countries

According to Dr Suleiman, the crucial lesson for ruling parties across Africa is the paramount importance of economic performance in maintaining power, adding that voters consistently evaluate ruling parties based on their economic stewardship, particularly over the long term.

“The ANC and South Africa are now at that point where nothing else matters but economic performance. I think we here in Nigeria and other African countries can learn from that,’’ he added.

While commending what he called ‘efficient conduct’ and devoid of the normal rancour and violence that characterise elections in other parts of Africa, said the elections were mostly centred on issues that concern what was of general importance to South African people generally.

“Also, all the political parties agreed and committed themselves to a peaceful process and the will of the voters. They largely did not indicate that they were prepared to win at all costs and by all means. The ANC and President Ramaphosa did not attempt to interfere in the process, leaving it in the hands of the electoral agencies.

“And because the process was free and fair and acceptable to all parties there were no threats to go to courts or resort to post-election violence. These are common issues that feature prominently in elections in many other African countries which were not noticeable in the South Africa elections,’’ he added.