APC and its choice of presidential candidate (I)

I told him without any seconds of reflection that the APC’s prospects were very bright but that its fortune or misfortune will be almost 99 per cent dependent on its choice of a presidential candidate. It was one of those responses to an inquiry I just give straight from my heart without the benefit of […]

I told him without any seconds of reflection that the APC’s prospects were very bright but that its fortune or misfortune will be almost 99 per cent dependent on its choice of a presidential candidate. It was one of those responses to an inquiry I just give straight from my heart without the benefit of prior deep thought about the issue in question. And I am convinced such answers are given to me by inspiration of the Holy Spirit.
Such undiluted or off the cuff responses come more as a prophetic utterance given vent by a vessel found honourable enough to be used by God than the product of a pundit‘s take on an issue. From my little experience with my life so far such utterances are often more powerful or superior to an intellectual analysis and so can be more reliable than an expert opinion.
But let us even set aside my claim to some divine inspiration and dwell only on human wisdom. As the days have gone by since the birth of the APC with fanfare and high expectation and I have tried to reflect more deeply on the prospects of the party, I am becoming more and more convinced about how much the performance or the failure of the party will be determined by who the party selects as presidential candidate, where he comes from and even more importantly, what religion he professes.
I say so in light of the nature of our politics. Let us not pretend about it Nigerian politics is not driven by ideology or any high minded thinking. As most of us would admit, it is fuelled largely by ethnic, religious and regional sentiments in that order. But it is now becoming increasingly religious especially at the national level and with particular reference to the presidential election. Any analyst who ignores this reality will be misleading people in his analysis.
I make bold therefore to restate that the greatest challenge that faces the APC is not organisation or finance or intellectual abilities of some of its leading lights. The party, just like the ruling PDP, has a fair share of some of the brightest and best among us and also of some of the smartest and crooked persons in its ranks. But what may prove to be its Achilles heels will squarely be the choice of who will be its flag bearer. As things stand today, the party appears saddled with General Muhammadu Buhari as its obvious presidential candidate.
But I think that fielding Buhari will be as difficult as deciding that he should step aside for someone else who will be more likely to win it for the party. Why do I say so? Which party in its right senses can afford to shove aside a man like Buhari who in his own personal merit is likely to garner about 11 or 12 million votes for it? Yet, as charismatic and lovable as Buhari is to millions of his followers, he cannot be marketed easily to win a presidential election against a formidable opposition like the PDP whether Jonathan is fielded against him or not. And the main reason is that Buhari carries the baggage of what the Americans call unelectability. He has what it takes to be a president but he is not easily electable
I have often said that in Nigerian politics Buhari resembles the late Chief Obafemi Awolowo so much. He is a disciplined, nationalistic and serious minded person who can make a good president any day any time. But like Awo, he suffers a severe handicap. Like Awo, while he has millions of adoring admirers and supporters in his home base, he is treated almost like an anathema outside his home base. Like Awo, while he is unbeatable in his home ground, he is almost unsalable outside of it.
Late Chief Awo’s many failures at national elections and Buhari’s more recent ones also support the point I am making here. It is not as if both men are bad men. It is just that in the nature of politics they have been so successfully de-marketed by their opponents that some electors loathe them with a passion. And there is nothing mysterious about this. It is just that in the character of electoral politics, one man’s meritorious candidate can be another man unmeritorious one.
I know that it will sound like blasphemy in the ears of millions of Buhari’s fanatical supporters if I venture to say that if APC fields Buhari again, the party will lose the presidential election. But that is an unpalatable truth. What are the possible arguments in support of my assertion? I invite all readers to look for an old copy of the Daily Trust which came out a day after the result of the 2011 presidential election was announced by INEC. I am writing this outside my base in Abuja so cannot quote the exact date of that publication but I am certain that it came out after that presidential election.
On its front page was a graphic presentation of the voting pattern or coalition that produced Goodluck Jonathan as winner of that election. An overwhelming majority of voters in the South-South, South West, South East and Christian North Central or Middle Belt regions voted for Jonathan and the PDP. And as far as I can see, nothing very much has changed since then. As far as I am concerned, nothing (that is the religious and political sentiments that produced Jonathan) has changed since that April 20011 presidential elections.
If anything, religious sentiment has grown and become even more hardened in the face of the brutalities unleashed on the nation by the Boko Haram terrorists. Many in the South think that some prominent northern politicians are sympathetic to the terrorists who claim they are fighting the cause of Islam.