APC and its choice of presidential candidate (II)

We also said that from the look of things, if Buhari is fielded the party will not win the presidential election in 2015. This, we said, is because nothing much has changed from the ‘winning coalition’ or ‘formula’ that defeated Buhari in 2011. I am certain that those who are in a hurry will dismiss […]

We also said that from the look of things, if Buhari is fielded the party will not win the presidential election in 2015. This, we said, is because nothing much has changed from the ‘winning coalition’ or ‘formula’ that defeated Buhari in 2011. I am certain that those who are in a hurry will dismiss me either as a Buhari hater, or a champion of the cause of the south or a Christian bigot or all of them. But I am none of the above. I am an unsentimental, detached and concerned analyst who, for now, is neither a PDP nor APC partisan but one merely anxious that something should be done to create real political competition for power at the crucial centre and a semblance of genuine democracy in our country.
Why do I say that nothing substantial has changed in our country from what happened in 2011? One, Christian northerners, especially in the core Middle Belt states, still think that their interests will be better served by a Christian southerner like Jonathan or any other Christian from the north or south. The emergence of Plateau State Governor Jonah David Jang as NGF factional chairman and the open support of prominent Middle Belt Christian politicians and activists like Jerry Gana and John Darah for ailing Taraba State Governor Danbaba Suntai are some of the clearest indications that religious sentiment is dangerously alive and kicking in Nigerian politics in general and in the north in particular.
If there is any part of the country where there is an open and deep seated animosity against a Muslim northern candidate it is in the Christian Middle Belt.
The pro-Jonathan stance of Governors Jang and Suswam and the pro-Suntai stance of the Christian majority people of Taraba are, to me, all a part of expressing religious solidarity and sending a message to the core Hausa Fulani northerners that the Christian minority northerners are not happy with the way they are being treated. Anyone who ignores this message is a day dreamer. This is a sign to me that the voting pattern of 2011 is not about to change come 2015 if APC fields Buhari.
Two, the hope is that with the coming of APC, Bola Tinubu, the main man behind APC, will be more faithful in championing the cause of his party than he did the last time he fielded Nuhu Ribadu in ACN and abandoned him. But I see Tinubu as essentially a political gamesman who first and foremost wants his personal or political interests protected. I therefore predict that Tinubu’s game will be largely dependent on what he is sure of getting in the APC arrangement. If he does not get something he considers substantial such as say a Vee Pee ticket, what will be his profit in championing the fortunes of the APC and swinging the votes of the Yorubas substantially to the APC and its presidential candidate?
Another argument is that even if Tinubu decides to swing the Yoruba or South West votes, how far can he go especially against the sentiment in the south that the Muslim/North has had more than its fair share of leadership at the national level and that it ought to wait a little more before it can again have a taste of it?
 A part of the travail of the APC as I see it is that even those who are clearheaded enough and realise the danger in fielding Buhari and coming with the inevitable result of failure once again will not have the courage to air their opinion. Such is the intimidating popularity of Buhari and the undying loyalty of some of his supporters that no one can dare say that his choice might bring failure. Such a person will be looked at as a saboteur.
The APC big wigs must approach this matter with clinical detachment if the party truly wishes to wrestle power from the entrenched PDP. The winning choice in the circumstance may be a credible Christian minority from the South-South whose mere nomination will knock out sentiment completely and the nation will for the first time in its life have two main presidential candidates that will be judged strictly by their abilities, the content of their character and their overall suitability for the position of president.
I dare to go further to suggest that the APC strategists should be shrewd in their thinking and take the painful decision of encouraging someone like Governor Rotimi Amaechi to defect to the APC and all obstacles should be cleared to make him the presidential candidate. If that is done, the immediate outcome is that there will be no more talk about zone, about religion and ethnicity. The APC bigwigs and thinkers should do the nation a big favour by conceding the presidency to the South-South for four more years by selecting Amaechi as its candidate and in the process defeat the sentiments that have not allowed the nation to think objectively about those who come forth to provide leadership at the national level.
I can write a doctoral thesis on the political and strategic suitability of making Amaechi the APC presidential candidate for 2015 but the small space usually allowed for newspaper commentary will not just allow for a detailed analysis of the issue. But a deep reflection on this humble but skeletally provided suggestion will reveal the strength of any such move by the APC for Nigeria’s present and the health of its political future.

Concluded.