Atiku, Sambo, North and 2015

They fall on their faces and bemoan the patriarch’s absence and how whoever stands as leader today is dwarfed outright by the smoky jinnee from their memory.  Habitually, a Northern Vice President invokes the enquiry as to whether he fits the shoes of the Sardauna of Sokoto, Premier of then Northern Nigeria. Of course it […]

They fall on their faces and bemoan the patriarch’s absence and how whoever stands as leader today is dwarfed outright by the smoky jinnee from their memory.  Habitually, a Northern Vice President invokes the enquiry as to whether he fits the shoes of the Sardauna of Sokoto, Premier of then Northern Nigeria. Of course it is pipe dream and with clandestine intent to attain a divisive demarcation, adding to the many that already exist. In time, the enquiry gravitates to schemes designed to undermine the Vice President and one can point accusing fingers at overzealous political opportunists capable of only knocking down and not scaling over hurdles to achieve their aims. How else can one explain how in this day and age there is a loud hush-hush about the tenure of Namadi Sambo as Vice President? But it is the North, scratching and yawning- idle and spent political forces are kicking like horses – out of habit!
I hope former Vice President Atiku Abubakar left some notes on how to deal with this distraction, because Vice President Namadi Sambo sure needs the counselling the notes will offer. Just as they did for Atiku, the clamouring elite picture Namadi Sambo as a gladiator in a ring, fit to challenge his boss. One can compare Namadi with Atiku and draw conclusions.
The political situation in which Namadi now finds himself is also very similar to Atiku’s in 2003 and offers an unpalatable dish for the VP’s political think tank which included Abba Dabo and Isaiah Balat. For Atiku Abubakar, in the build up to the 2003 elections, President Olusegun Obasanjo, firmly in the saddle of leadership and clearly preparing to run for a second term, was offered a similar proposal, that he should drop his vice, Atiku Abubakar and run with another more “sellable” candidate from the North. At that time Atiku’s stature had grown so big that Obasanjo and many around him were not comfortable with Atiku continuing in office, especially those who were not keen on having him succeed Obasanjo. Evidently, President Obasanjo toyed with the idea up such that when he declared his intention to seek a second term, he was silent about the fate of his deputy.
Atiku Abubakar is a veteran of this intrigue, and fingered itinerant Governors seeking favour from President Obasanjo in the idea of a different Vice President.  Atiku Abubakar whose formidable political machine was nationwide in the fight for his seat, turned the tables on the Governors until cowed, they succumbed to him with their delegates at the convention. All of a sudden, Atiku Abubakar had his boss in the palm of his hand.  Atiku, pulling all his weight had in asserting himself, forced a humble plea from his boss.  Obasanjo realising his peril, was forced to recant. It is believed that from then onwards, there was no love lost between the two.
On the other hand, Namadi Sambo, has not exactly been a prominent politician (until recently). He has not had the type of big power base like Atiku, and his name has not been that prominent in Northern political circles (until recently). His only strong base is Kaduna, where his protégé Ramalan Yero is governor. There is a longing today for the Makarfi phenomenon which suggests that development through the Namadi/Yero years had low ebbed. It is obvious that Vice President Namadi Sambo intently honoured the dictates of the constitution, ideally serving his master in truthful loyalty without risking any upsets of the polity. Vice President Namadi Sambo is not used to making the news. For a model as vice-president, he is more of a Goodluck Jonathan than an Atiku Abubakar, quiet, withdrawn, and doing his utmost to avoid a confrontation with his boss. Unlike Atiku who used his office to build a political base and to court the loyalty of politicians across the country, Sambo has been careful not to be seen as doing anything that would draw the ire of his boss. Twice when some groups openly called on Sambo to contest as president in 2015, he quickly disowned such groups and denied having anything to do with them. Many have observed that, the caution he takes not to be seen as doing anything contrary to his boss has prevented him from reaching out to governors or other political bigwigs in the country to the extent that apart from Kaduna where he hails from, he cannot vouch for the loyalty of any of the other governors. His inability to assert himself has also weakened his base, making him to appear to be more at the mercy of his boss, and as a weakling who could be dispensed with at the expense of political exigencies. This has made some analysts to say he may have been chosen as Vice President because he would not pose a threat to President Jonathan.
Not so, Turakin Adamawa, the politically irrepressible former vice president, arguably the most grounded politician in the North today, a compliment he earns without being agreed with. Abubakar cut his political teeth under the tutelage of Gen. Shehu Musa Yar’Adua, one of the most gifted politicians Nigeria has ever produced, always only a step behind the General in all the political groupings they formed, from the People’s Front (PF) until the demise of the General in 1997, from whence the Turakin Adamawa took full charge. The PF has remained a portent political machine till date metamorphosing into a registered political party, People’s Democratic Movement. It is the height of sagacity that with this in tow, Atiku is a forefront contender for the Presidential ticket of the All Progressives Congress.
Signs have emerged that Namadi Sambo though quiet, also packs a punch, especially buoyed by the valuable decamping of Attahiru Bafarawa, Sokoto, and Shekarau, Kano states. The hitherto powerful Northern Elders Forum opposed to Jonathan has split right down the middle and many believe Sambo with whom the new half sided, was the mastermind. The coming weeks are going to prove interesting as Sambo and Ahmadu Adamu Mu’azu, the National Chairman, marshal efforts to reconfigure the ruling party for the stormy weather of flight 2015. When the All Progressives Congress concludes its membership registration drive, it will not be a storm, but a cyclone.