Bago vs Malagi: Rematch for the ages?

Unlike in many northern states where politics can be feisty, it is generally breezy and sleepy in Niger State. This is true whether during election cycles or in the periods between them. This cozy state of affairs looks set to change in the 2027 election, however, as a welcome electoral storm quietly gathers speed in […]

Unlike in many northern states where politics can be feisty, it is generally breezy and sleepy in Niger State. This is true whether during election cycles or in the periods between them. This cozy state of affairs looks set to change in the 2027 election, however, as a welcome electoral storm quietly gathers speed in the governorship, and by implication, many other down ballot races. But to understand what is coming, we must first fully grasp what came before, and how that has shaped where we are now and where we are likely to be in the state.

There are three reasons why politics is uneventful in Niger State. The first, rather remote and scarcely recognised, is that the place is essentially a ‘diaspora’ state. A large number of Nigerlites live and work outside of the state, dispersed across major cities like Lagos, Kano, Kaduna, Abuja, everywhere. The political views and positions of this cohort of Nigerlites can be quite significant, at least within their own small spheres of influence at family and community levels. Equally important, the economic fortunes of these diaspora Nigerlites are not necessarily tied to the state government, and as a critical mass, they can act and behave in ways that are politically independent of local political actors.

Unfortunately, the vast majority of diaspora Nigerlites are not interested in Niger State politics, and couldn’t care less who is governor or whatever. Many travel home for Sallah or Christmas, and occasionally listen to news about local state politics. But for most of this cohort, participation in local state politics ends there. The result is that the state is deprived of a critical mass of people who can influence politics in more positive ways, not only in terms of providing meaningful political direction but also of public service. As such politics is left in the hands of resident Nigerlites whose political behaviour is easily swayed by all kinds of influences.

The second factor is more direct and consequential. This is the zoning arrangement between the state’s three senatorial districts for producing the governor during alternate election cycles. The rotation of the position of the governor among the state’s three zones (Niger South or Zone A, Niger East or Zone B, and Niger North or Zone C) was devised to give each of the major blocs of peoples in the state a sense of belonging through a shot at the highest office in the state. Zoning has so far run its full course across the 24-year period from 1999 to 2023, producing Governors Abdulkadir Kure, Babangida Aliyu, Sani Bello, and now Umaru Bago.

What has zoning achieved for the state? Not so much by way of development outcomes. The problem is that for a country like Nigeria, some form of rotational presidency between the North and South is absolutely necessary for our present political circumstances. For a state like Niger, however, it is almost entirely pointless. After 24 years of zoning, Niger state remains one of the least developed and quite practically among the most badly governed states in the country. The reasons for these dismal outcomes for the state are not far-fetched.

Zoning in Niger effectively took off in 2003 when Engineer Mustafa Bello’s serious and deserving challenge to the then incumbent Engineer Abdulkadir Kure (now late) was somehow stifled in favour of rotation. Since then, zoning has bred three side-effects that—individually or combined—far outweigh any positives it may have had. First, the zoning arrangement stifles political competition which is necessary for producing the best pool of candidates during any election. By restricting the pool of candidates to one-third of the state every election cycle, zoning disfranchises two-thirds of its potential leadership talent at any given time.

The result is that zoning rewards political expediency over competence or leadership ability. By general consensus across the state, only Dr Mua’zu Babangida Aliyu (2007-2015), has distinguished himself so far to the expectations of the electorate. He came fully prepared in terms of education, leadership and administrative experience, and federal network. He had a blueprint that even today should be a model for many states in northern Nigeria. Above all, he worked with the best pool of talent the state had available. Talba had his issues, many of them, but by and large, he remains an outlier in terms of readiness, performance, and outcomes. That zoning has produced just one like him is a weakness the state can ill afford going forward.

More crucially, zoning in Niger has bred a sense of entitlement among incumbent governors. Because rotation has come with the expectation of eight years for each zone, every incumbent believes they must have their eight years, whether they are performing well or not. In every election cycle, there are always very good candidates who can mount a serious challenge against a non-performing incumbent, within or outside of the ruling party. But zoning makes this difficult, which further weakens the quality of leadership in the state over time.

Finally, for all the rotation between the three zones, there has not really been any ‘zoning’ in Niger state at all. From 2003 to 2023, all the governors the state produced belonged to the same political family. While the geography of the governors changed from Lapai to Minna to Kontagora, the genealogy of their power did not. Kure, Talba, and Abu Lolo (to use their more popular names) all belong to the same political dynasty, and what we have had in effect is zoning without zoning. The more important point, however, is that all of these are heading towards a seismic change in 2027. Two factors are shaping the emerging trend.

First, Niger state almost always votes with the ruling party at the federal centre, first from 1999-2011, and then again from 2015 to 2023. This is the key political matrix in danger of shifting in 2027. Should the ADC or any other opposition party field a viable and popular candidate, they would stand a good chance of clinching it if present disenchantment in the state endures to election time. Until last year, the political landscape looks set for a repeat of the zoning formular of easy win for the incumbent. Governor Bago looked set to coast to victory, even before the elections. But a whole lot of issues—some federal, some regional, and many more local—are causing widespread disenchantments and are shifting political attitudes throughout the state. Any journalist or political operative in the state would tell you that things are falling fast apart, and the centre may no longer hold in the politics of Niger as we know it.

These disenchantments are now deeply rooted, and have boiled over from time to time over the past year. When Senator Sani Musa, aka ‘313, who represents Niger East (Zone B), recently said that were it not for his respect of the state’s zoning formular, he would throw his hat in the ring for the ruling APC primaries, many people across the entire state openly said they wished he would. When news arose last year that Muhammad Nami, the former head of the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), was girding up to challenge Bago, it was welcomed throughout the state for months, particularly in Zone A. When reports surfaced early this year that the Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mohammed Idris Malagi is also looking to join the race, the state went wild with encouraging speculations that have only intensified as election season draws nearer. Those are not mere events, but indications of a gathering storm.

All of these pose a serious but welcome problem for the APC in the state. Governor Bago has his credit, no doubt. Whether it is sufficient to keep the state for the party at both presidential and governorship levels is the question given the shifting political attitudes in the state. What the state needs, and what many Nigerlites would be happy to see happen, is a rematch not just between Bago and Malagi in the APC, but an open contest involving all the leading candidates across all party lines. It is time to do away with zoning in the Power State.