Beyond ‘Otoge’: The complex chess game for Kwara’s next governor

The battle for the 2027 governorship election in Kwara State is gradually unfolding as one of the fiercest and most politically complex contests in the state’s recent history. The emerging developments are already exposing deep strategic calculations around zoning and succession intrigues amidst the survival struggles of major political structures. Unlike the 2019 election, which […]

The battle for the 2027 governorship election in Kwara State is gradually unfolding as one of the fiercest and most politically complex contests in the state’s recent history.

The emerging developments are already exposing deep strategic calculations around zoning and succession intrigues amidst the survival struggles of major political structures.

Unlike the 2019 election, which was driven largely by the emotional “Otoge” (Enough is Enough) movement against the Saraki political dynasty, the coming contest appears far less predictable.

The political equation changed significantly after the All Progressives Congress (APC) picked the Speaker of the Kwara State House of Assembly, Rt. Hon. Salihu Yakubu Danladi, who hails from Kwara North, as its governorship candidate.

The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), on the other hand, settled for Engr. Kale Kawu from Kwara Central, while the African Democratic Congress (ADC) produced a former House of Representatives member, Zakari Mohammed—a kinsman of the Speaker from Baruten. These developments have completely altered the political conversation across the state.

For the APC, the choice of Danladi was not just about competence or party loyalty; it was a strategic response orchestrated by Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq to address long-standing agitations from Kwara North. Since the return to democracy in 1999, Kwara Central has dominated the governorship space for the larger part of the Fourth Republic, ruling cumulatively for 20 years.

Within many communities in Baruten, Kaiama, Moro, Edu, and Patigi, there has been a growing sentiment that 2027 should naturally favor Kwara North as a matter of fairness and political balancing. That sentiment partly explains why Danladi’s emergence immediately generated excitement across many parts of the northern axis.

To this end, traditional rulers from the district, in a statement issued at the weekend on their behalf by the Etsu Patigi, Alhaji Ibrahim Umar Bologi II, described the outcome of the primary election as a notable political milestone for Kwara North. The royal father also thanked the party for championing inclusiveness and regional equity.

However, lingering questions remain as to whether the district can fully unite behind the Speaker due to local political calculations and tribal disagreements. Furthermore, the APC succession process, which reached its climax over the weekend, exposed deep internal cracks within the ruling party.

Governor AbdulRazaq had initially endorsed Ambassador Abdulfatai Yahaya Seriki from Kwara Central as his preferred successor before a dramatic reversal shifted the pendulum to Danladi. This sudden change created confusion and resentment among sections of the party.

Protests erupted in Ilorin shortly after Danladi’s emergence, with aggrieved APC supporters rejecting the outcome and demanding that Yahaya Seriki be recognized as the rightful candidate.

Although Seriki later distanced himself from the protests and urged calm, the development exposed the fragile nature of APC unity ahead of 2027.

The challenge before Governor AbdulRazaq and APC leaders now is how to genuinely reconcile the various camps that emerged from the bitter succession battle. Apart from the politically significant Yahaya Seriki bloc, there is also the unresolved question surrounding Senator Saliu Mustapha.

For weeks, Mustapha was strongly linked to the governorship race and was believed to be one of the most formidable aspirants in the contest, boasting a robust grassroots base.

Insiders alleged that the Senator was initially favored by the presidency due to his broad acceptability, but was rejected by the Governor for reasons stakeholders are still struggling to untangle.

Reports later suggested complex negotiations involving Mustapha’s political future, Governor AbdulRazaq’s alleged senatorial interests, and a broader power-sharing arrangement within the APC. Yet, despite indications on the morning of the primary that he might still participate, Mustapha’s name was conspicuously absent from the final list of aspirants announced by the Senator Musiliu Obanikoro-led primary committee.

That omission immediately triggered speculation and reinforced perceptions that intense, behind-the-scenes negotiations shaped the final outcome. Senior party sources said the governor, having secured his preferred choice of successor, is under pressure to forfeit his senatorial ambition so Mustapha can return to the Senate, maintaining a political balance to strengthen the party’s chances against a resurgent opposition.

While the APC struggles to manage its internal wounds, the PDP appears to be approaching the election with a more calculated strategy. The party’s decision to settle for Kale Kawu from Kwara Central is widely seen as an attempt by former Senate President Bukola Saraki to consolidate the enormous voting strength of Ilorin and its surrounding communities.

Despite losing power in 2019, Saraki retains one of the strongest grassroots political structures in the state and remains the most formidable opposition figure in Kwara politics today.

Unlike in 2019 when the “Otoge” movement united almost every opposition force against him, the political atmosphere in 2027 appears more favorable to his gradual comeback strategy.

Economic hardship across the country may also indirectly strengthen the opposition’s argument against the ruling party, even though Governor AbdulRazaq continues to maintain relative political stability within the state.

For the ADC, the party appears to be positioning itself as the wild card in the race with the emergence of Zakari Mohammed. While he may not possess the statewide structure of the APC or the historical political machinery of the PDP, his candidacy introduces another layer of complexity.

Hailing from Kwara North, Zakari is expected to compete for the same regional sentiments currently favoring Danladi. This could become a serious problem for the APC if the PDP and ADC succeed in attracting protest votes from aggrieved Kwara North politicians and voters dissatisfied with the ruling party’s primary process.

On the flip side, the opposition’s hope for an easy ride in Kwara Central following the emergence of a northern speaker may hit a snag.

Kwara Central could prove slippery for the opposition if the APC succeeds in retaining the joint structures of Senator Saliu Mustapha and Ambassador Seriki, as both heavyweights hail from the central district.

Although the ADC may lack the financial and organizational strength of the two dominant parties, its role as a spoiler could prove crucial in a tightly contested election. Nevertheless, analysts predict that the contest will ultimately be a two-horse race between the APC and the PDP.

 

Another critical factor likely to shape the election is the influence of federal might. Presently, there are insinuations that President Bola Tinubu and the national party leadership are keeping a close eye on the race, meaning nothing is completely set in stone yet.

 

Speaking on the development, the President of the Nigerian Political Science Association (NPSA), Professor Hassan Saliu, warned that the APC is heading into its toughest political battle in Kwara State since the 2019 revolution.

 

He noted that growing internal divisions and public dissatisfaction could drastically reshape the election. Professor Saliu explained that, contrary to popular insinuations, Ilorin voters have traditionally prioritized established political structures and prevailing voter sentiment over basic sectional interests.

 

However, Saliu questioned whether the APC currently possesses the level of unity required to successfully transfer power. According to him, there is a major difference between party primaries and general elections, warning that the APC has substantial reconciliation work ahead.

 

“The level of unity within the APC is low, and multiple competing power centers now exist within Kwara politics, unlike in previous years when influence was concentrated around fewer actors,” Saliu observed. He added that federal influence may eventually shape the final outcome, especially if the APC succeeds in reconciling aggrieved stakeholders before the polls.

 

Regarding the opposition, Saliu stated: “What is likely to play out is that there may be protest votes in favor of the PDP. But that does not automatically suggest it is widely popular. Some forces are pushing people toward the PDP, which appears to have corrected one of its previous mistakes by positioning itself around the state’s dominant voting bloc with Kale Kawu. However, the fact that the PDP may be favored should not be interpreted to mean everything the party is doing is okay with the people. They still need to fundamentally restructure and recalibrate.”

 

Despite the growing political tension, the NPSA president maintained that the 2027 governorship race remains fluid and unpredictable. “APC can win, PDP can win; but based on the situation on the ground, the former has a lot of work to do,” he concluded.