Beyond Tinubu’s second term: Why the North must unite before 2031

Recently, Dr Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, a former spokesperson for the Northern Elders Forum (NEF), threw a political tantrum that would make a political-toddler puzzle. His worries: that the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s agenda was “a set of campaign promises, not a coherent governance plan” and that the “North is drifting under the weight of economic hardship, […]

Recently, Dr Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, a former spokesperson for the Northern Elders Forum (NEF), threw a political tantrum that would make a political-toddler puzzle. His worries: that the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s agenda was “a set of campaign promises, not a coherent governance plan” and that the “North is drifting under the weight of economic hardship, insecurity and alienation.” Then, he made very bold and categorical statements: that the President should step aside for a new generation of leaders in 2027, and the North will have a clear position on this by October.

I must really appreciate his courage, leadership and genuine concerns. Resigning a position in Aso Rock Villa is a very rare occurrence. But there is one important problem.  In the unfolding political drama in Nigeria, one truth shines unmistakably clear: President Tinubu holds the upper hand. So far, he has methodically decimated the opposition, scattering them like leaves before a dry-season wind. The tantrum is understandable. But even a political toddler could see that barring an unforeseen political tsunami, Tinubu’s re-election in 2027 appears not just likely, but a fait accompli.

Whatever the North presents in October, we must have a plan B. For me, the graver issue is not merely his second term — it is what lies beyond: how Tinubu may shape Nigeria’s political climate post-2031 in his own image, leaving the opposition, particularly the historically powerful northern politicians, sidelined for decades. His recent body language and Political Calculus – appeasing southern Kaduna, visit to Katsina, poaching opposition members from Kano and other states, molding of Seyi’s public brand, Fubara’s debacle and handshake with Soludo – all point to something beyond 2027.

History, it is said, is a “lantern for the wayfarer.” Nigeria needs not look too far back to see the danger ahead. During President Olusegun Obasanjo’s tenure (1999-2007), he wielded the instruments of state power with ruthless efficiency to mold political outcomes. By 2006, despite murmurs of dissatisfaction within the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Obasanjo almost single-handedly orchestrated the candidacy of a little-known Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, as his successor.

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It is no exaggeration to say that Obasanjo “anointed a president in his own image” – a leader expected to shield his predecessor’s legacies and, perhaps, his vulnerabilities. It did not matter that Yar’Adua had grave health concerns; what mattered was loyalty and control. Yar’Adua attempted to show some level of independence, but as expected, his health failed him. As the late sage, Chinua Achebe, once warned, “The trouble with Nigeria is simply and squarely a failure of leadership.” Leadership that seeks to perpetuate itself through weak or controlled successors eventually weakens the nation itself. Can the North stop Tinubu?

Tinubu, a master strategist and kingmaker par excellence, understands this template profoundly. Having built and dominated the political machinery of Lagos for decades, he is now replicating the model nationally. With a large number of northern politicians under his control, with the opposition in disarray and key political structures under his influence, Tinubu appears poised not only to secure re-election but to shape the post-2031 succession to his liking. Without a unified, determined, and credible opposition, Tinubu may handpick his successor, in the same manner Obasanjo did. Only this time, the political climate he engineers could freeze out northern politicians — traditionally dominant players – and others for a generation. As the African proverb says, “When the music changes, so does the dance.” If the opposition does not adapt now, they will dance to Tinubu’s music for decades. It is true that “nobody will become president without the North”. So far, President Tinubu seems to have the key to the heart and mind of North’s voters.

As the North crafts its position by the end of October, we must review lessons from other countries. The slippery slope of diminishing political influence is not uniquely Nigerian. Across the world, dominant leaders have manipulated political transitions to their advantage. In Russia, Vladimir Putin systematically weakened the opposition, ensuring a political order where true competition is an illusion. As one Russian dissident put it, “opposition exists here like clouds in a painting — visible but powerless.”

Another important example is Turkey. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan restructured institutions, curbed dissent, and ensured that the opposition could not pose a credible threat, even after two decades. Nigeria risks joining this list if opposition forces – especially northern politicians – do not awaken to the urgency of the moment. I really salute Hakeem Baba-Ahmed for showing the danger ahead and the urgency of the matter. The North has six months to take a position. The northern political class and broader opposition must recognise that time is a diminishing asset. Divided, they are doomed.

As Benjamin Franklin famously said during America’s fight for independence, “We must, indeed, all hang together or, most assuredly, we shall all hang separately.” With the statement attributed to APC’s National chairman, Abdullahi Ganduje, on Nigeria becoming a one-party state, we could only imagine what is in the mind of President Tinubu and his men.

As a political toddler, I can see the herculean tasks ahead. But action must be taken, because specific action leads to specific results:

1) Rebuild and rebrand political parties: PDP, Labour Party, NNPP, and others must clean house, end internal sabotage, and reconnect with the masses. All the main opposition parties have one challenge or the other. This must be minimised.

2) Forge genuine alliances: Regional divisions must give way to national coalitions. The opposition must build bridges across ethnic, religious and regional lines to present a formidable front.

3) Groom candidates early: Credible, popular, and visionary leaders must be identified, supported, and projected now — not hurriedly selected months before elections.

4) Engage citizens constantly: Opposition leaders must be seen fighting for the people daily — not just during election cycles — by championing issues like insecurity, poverty, and youth unemployment.

Northern politicians and other opposition parties must unite for the future of Nigeria. Otherwise, history will record them not as victims of Tinubu’s cunning, but as architects of their own irrelevance.

Nigeria stands at a crossroads. One road leads to a vibrant, competitive democracy; the other, to a de facto one-party state shaped in the image of Bola Tinubu. The choice, while still available, is rapidly narrowing. Purposeful leadership requires that we must unite now — not tomorrow, not in 2026 — to salvage the political future of Nigeria. The methodical decimation of the opposition may make it difficult to challenge President Tinubu. But, as the Roman philosopher Lucius Sereca, beautifully says, “It is not because things are difficult that we do not dare, it is because we do not dare that they are difficult”. History is watching. Posterity will judge.

 

El-Yakubu is a Professor of Chemical Engineering at Ahmadu Bello University

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