Big Tobacco sets its sights on Africa

Single sticks go fast at 7 cents each — an especially good price point for kids. And while Yakubu says he doesn’t sell to children, other shopkeepers do. About 25% of teens — some as young as 13 — use tobacco in some parts of Nigeria, double the smoking rate of Nigerian men, and many […]

Single sticks go fast at 7 cents each — an especially good price point for kids. And while Yakubu says he doesn’t sell to children, other shopkeepers do. About 25% of teens — some as young as 13 — use tobacco in some parts of Nigeria, double the smoking rate of Nigerian men, and many pick up the habit by age 11. That’s a demographic powder keg, one that means big trouble if you’re a health expert and big promise if you’re a tobacco executive. Both sides agree on one thing, though: across all of Africa, cigarettes are set for boom times.

In recent years, the world has increasingly been cleaving into two zones: smoking and nonsmoking. In the U.S. and other developed countries, Big Tobacco is in retreat, chased to the curbs by a combination of lawsuits, smoking bans, rising taxes and advertising restrictions. Fewer than 20% of adult Americans now smoke — the lowest rate since reliable records have been kept — and a tobacco crackdown is under way in Europe, Canada and elsewhere. In April, Congress boosted federal cigarette taxes threefold, from 32 cents a pack to $1. In June, President Barack Obama signed a law giving the FDA the power to regulate cigarettes like any other food or drug.

It’s in Africa, however, that the battle for the hearts, minds and lungs of new smokers is being waged most aggressively — and Nigeria offers a telling look at how the fight is unfolding. For all the woes that beset the continent, Africa still enjoys the lowest smoking rates in the world, largely because most people just can’t afford it. In Ghana, the male smoking rate (which in most places in the world is higher than the female rate) is only 8%; in the Democratic Republic of Congo, it’s 14%; in Nigeria, it’s 12%. Compare that with 31% in India, 56% in Malaysia and a whopping 61% in China. But the tobacco industry abhors a vacuum, and in recent years, industry players — principally London-based British American Tobacco, Switzerland-based Philip Morris International and the U.K.’s Imperial Tobacco — have been working hard to fill it. “We’ve done this before,” says Allan Brandt, a professor of the history of science at Harvard University and the author of The Cigarette Century. “When something gets regulated here, we move the risk offshore.”

Spreading the scourge

Big Tobacco’s footprint in Africa has been hard to miss for a while. British American markets its wares — which include Dunhill and Pall Mall — in a vast crescent sweeping from South Africa to Congo and west to Ghana, as well as throughout North Africa. In 2003 the company planted its stakes deeper, building a $150 million factory in Nigeria. Philip Morris, whose brands include Marlboro and Chesterfield, has a smaller presence on the continent. “We are a minor, minor player,” says spokesman Greg Prager. But that could change. The company does no business in Nigeria, but it controls about 15% of the market across North Africa and has a scattered 10% share elsewhere. It has also built a new factory in Senegal.

That expansion increasingly happens through the single-stick model, and that’s the traffic that causes the most worry. People who buy cigarettes by the stick are typically the poor, the uneducated or the young — all groups less likely to have learned of the perils of smoking. “[A single stick is] much more affordable, and for young people, it’s easier to conceal,” says Babatunde Irukera, an antismoking lawyer working with the Nigerian government.

What’s more, though British manufacturers, like American ones, put warnings on cigarette packs, the labels do no good if a pack is something you never see. Like other antismoking activists, Irukera believes industry actively promotes single-stick sales (which also occur in Asia, the Americas and elsewhere in the world). But the companies answer that the matter is out of their hands.

But Nigeria and Africa as a whole are starting to push back. In 2003 the World Health Assembly adopted the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, a treaty designed to attack smoking through a mix of methods including bans and tax hikes. So far, 164 countries have joined the pact, including 48 in Africa. The U.S. signed the treaty in 2004 but has yet to implement it, though the President is expected to seek Senate ratification soon, adding a very big player to the team.

If such antismoking strategies are to succeed, health experts warn that speed is essential. “The challenge for Africa is to adopt policies to reduce tobacco use before the epidemic sweeps across the continent,” says Matthew Myers, president of the Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids. To that end, Nigeria is taking a page from the West’s playbook, filing a $45 billion damages suit against British American, Philip Morris and the domestic firm International Tobacco, alleging what Irukera calls a “clear strategy to market their products to young people.” The tobacco companies deny the charge.

For all the efforts of the lawyers, doctors and treaty writers, it’s at the grass roots that the fight against tobacco will be won. On a hot Friday afternoon not long ago, a group of students in blue-and-yellow uniforms gathered for a lecture at the Shepherd Secondary School in Ketu, a poor neighborhood in Lagos. “Have you seen anybody smoking on TV?” asks James-Odiase, the antitobacco counselor. The class nods, and one boy admits that he admires the way male actors look when they smoke. “With each puff he takes,” the counselor warns, the actor’s “life reduces by five seconds.” The kids of Ketu — new to such things — gasp at that.

Later in the day, Salau Moshood, 17, reflects on what he’s learned. “I heard today that smoking is not good, especially for children,” he says. “My advice to the people is that they should stop.” That advice may or may not be heeded, but health officials everywhere will count it as a win if Moshood himself and millions of other Africans never start.

Time.com