Bogeymen
There is something about the sudden shift in western opinion on the Palestine/Israel conflict that unsettles me. Almost overnight, western politicians and media outlets did a 180, basically turning on Israel. It boggles the mind watching pro-Israel journalists such as Piers Morgan and Iain Dale not only acknowledging Israeli war crimes but calling out the […]
There is something about the sudden shift in western opinion on the Palestine/Israel conflict that unsettles me. Almost overnight, western politicians and media outlets did a 180, basically turning on Israel. It boggles the mind watching pro-Israel journalists such as Piers Morgan and Iain Dale not only acknowledging Israeli war crimes but calling out the Israeli leadership in language reserved for the 3H+I bogeymen (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthi and Iran).
Why all this is so unsettling is the escalating tension between Israel and Iran, with reports circulating about Israel wrapping up preparations for striking Iranian nuclear sites. Weeks ago, US President Donald Trump had warned Israel against any such actions that might derail the ongoing dialogue between the US and Iran brokered by Oman. The talks will overshoot the 60-day deadline President Trump had set, with the deadline elapsing on the June 11. Comments made by negotiators and politicians on both sides suggest that no progress has been made and none will be made by all indications. They happen to share the same zero-sum redline: uranium enrichment. The Americans are insistently demanding that Iran completely ditch enriching uranium on its soil, and Iran has made it clear that that is a nonstarter. Rhetoric from Trump in the last few days indicate that he might be coming around to the idea of Israel attacking Iran with the backing of the US.
Iran on its own part has been frenetically arming and preparing itself while also firming up ties with the BRICS bloc as its own backing. This is not a good sign. It is reminiscent of the type of geostrategic politicking that preluded the beginning of both world wars.
An Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities would have significant and far-reaching consequences, both regionally and globally.
The immediate military consequences of that include an Iranian retaliation. The Iranians would most likely respond with missile strikes on Israeli targets, involving its proxies such Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen and Shia militias in Iraq and Syria. This could then escalate into a broader regional war.
The expansion of the conflict could see Hezbollah launching rockets into Israel, while Iranian-backed groups in Iraq/Syria might attack U.S. or Israeli interests in the region. U.S. involvement will follow if U.S. forces or allies are targeted, and the larger NATO might be drawn into the conflict, further escalating tensions.
Another consequence will be the acceleration of the Iranian nuclear programme. An attack might very well harden Iran’s resolve to develop nuclear weapons, potentially leading to rapid weaponization.
The regional multipliers will also trigger an arms race. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, or Egypt might seek their own nuclear capabilities in response.
The economic and energy market impact will result in a sharp oil price surge. Iran has the capacity to disrupt the Hormuz strait shipping, causing a global oil price spike and economic instability. Stock markets and supply chains would face disruptions due to heightened geopolitical risks.
The diplomatic fallout thereof will be international condemnation… many countries, including some Western allies might criticise Israel for unilateral action.
The UN Security Council could hold emergency sessions, possibly leading to sanctions or resolutions against Israel. The US might covertly back Israel while overtly criticising it, same way its international policy has interacted with instances of clear Israeli violations in Gaza.
But… in the event that the U.S. stance is comprehensively against escalations, tensions could arise if Washington opposes the strike. And if by luck it doesn’t snowball into a larger scale war involving military superpowers, the long-term security implications is increased assymmetric military activity sponsored by Iranian intelligence against Israeli targets worldwide.
Any prolonged conflict would weaken governments in Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria, creating power vacuums, further destabilizing the Middle East.
Iran could also escalate in the cyber theater, launching major cyber-attacks on Israeli infrastructure, power grids, banks, government systems etc. Needless to say, Israel can fight back robustly, devastating Iranian cyber infrastructure.
Such an event will provide the Iranian regime leverage, consolidating its power. Hardliners in Iran will gain more power, suppressing reformist movements abetted by the western establishment.
The possible scenarios for the conflict if tensions escalate into kinetic action and counteraction are: limited strike or partial damage–in which case Iran repairs facilities, continues programme, but with delays. The scarier scenario is a decisive strike or complete destruction of sensitive Iranian sites, Iran’s nuclear capabilities are set back years, but retaliation is severe.
And if, God forbid, the conflict spirals into a full scale war, it could draw in multiple regional players like Saudi Arabia, US and Russia.
Any Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear sites would likely trigger a dangerous cycle of retaliation, regional instability, and economic disruption. While it might delay Iran’s nuclear progress temporarily, the long-term consequences would be highly destabilising. Diplomatic solutions such as reviving the JCPOA with stricter terms are generally seen as a safer alternative, though Israel has displayed willingness to consider unilateral military action if it perceives an imminent existential threat from Iran
Winter is coming, the bogeymen on both sides are spoiling for blood. One side has already shed enough blood for two oceans. But make no mistake, the NATO/Israeli bogeyman menacingly staring down Iran is formidable. It can inflict pain and suffering on tens of millions of Iranians with a few swats. Yes, it can destroy Iran. Forget the fact that Iran would certainly also inflict pain and suffering on tens of millions of Israelis, American service personnel and Arab allies of the US fold.
The collective impact could be as severe as another worldwide war even if it remained strictly conventional. The fallout will have devastating effects on the global economy and the geopolitical structures maintaining the world order.
The big elephant in the face of these mutually antagonistic bogeymen is… is the western establishment realigning itself away from Israel’s troubles in Gaza and the West Bank to refocus on the conflict brewing as Israel concludes its plans to strike Iran in the coming days. This is deeply unsettling.
Allah yayi mana maganin masifa.