Buhari and Tinubu: An alliance in trouble

There is a powerful minister in Buhari’s cabinet that I normally discuss these things with. But in the last one month, I have not been unable to do so; and I wanted to ask him: what exactly is the strategy? Why is this government perceived to be feuding with Bola Ahmed Tinubu? Why is even […]

There is a powerful minister in Buhari’s cabinet that I normally discuss these things with. But in the last one month, I have not been unable to do so; and I wanted to ask him: what exactly is the strategy? Why is this government perceived to be feuding with Bola Ahmed Tinubu? Why is even the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) seen to be rowing with Tinubu? Is a clash between Buhari and Tinubu inevitable? Are the incipient painful cracks in the APC leadership unavoidable? Just who is Buhari’s political adviser?
Apparently, Tinubu is chagrined by what appears to be a serious loss in Kogi State where he had tried tooth and nail to see that James Faleke succeeded Abubakar Audu as governor. From the Tribunal to the Supreme Court, Faleke lost the legal challenge to succeed Audu and those verdicts did not please Tinubu at all; although in such a situation neither the APC nor the federal government could be blamed. 
After Kogi, Tinubu had expected to be given the latitude to have his disciple, Dr Abraham, emerge as the flag bearer of the party in the forthcoming governorship election in Ondo state. However, Abraham was defeated by Rotimi Akeredolu due to what Tinubu said was the use of forged delegates list in the primaries and the overturning of the decisions of APC’s National Working Committee by John Odigie-Oyegun, the party’s national chairman. The resultant altercation between Tinubu and Oyegun over the Ondo governorship ticket has stunned party members.  Tinubu is not happy and is refusing to have anything to do with the campaign, the APC is going into that election disunited and it will be a miracle if they win.
It is an unviable proposition to believe that Tinubu’s former protégés can win the Yoruba votes off him. It is not a strategy to isolate Tinubu. It is not a healthy approach to work at limiting Tinubu to Lagos. It is not a wise decision to say Tinubu is over bearing and that you are going to damn him.
For one, Tinubu’s strength lies in his ability to cobble up political alliances, sometimes with enemies. In 2011, it was alleged that Tinubu’s undeclared support won the Yoruba votes for Goodluck Jonathan. In 2015, Tinubu withheld that support from Jonathan and gave it to Buhari, on what terms, I don’t know; suffice it to say this support culminated in the formation of the All Progressives Congress from the ashes of the Action Congress of Nigeria (CAN), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and a section of All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA).
Secondly, Tinubu has produced political leaders, many of them successful; Yemi Osinbajo; Abdul Rauf Aregbesola, Babatunde Fashola, Kayode Fayemi; Wale Edun, just to mention a few. This is the characteristic of top politicians with an eye on history. This is the quality that has been lacking in our politicians. No governor has had a grip on a result oriented succession scheme in his home state like Tinubu. There is something in Tinubu that shows that he fully understands the ropes in Nigerian politics and it is best to work with him obtaining South West support. Tinubu is never tired or shy of going into alliances with people he thinks can succeed and also accommodate his own political objectives. As far as we can see, Tinubu shares the passion for a strong, virile and prosperous country.
Additionally, ditching the political understanding with Tinubu will drive him to the desperate waiting hands of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar. Atiku’s life time ambition to be Nigerian President is alive and well and everything he has done recently is to court aggrieved people where he has not instigated these grievances. Atiku has stupendous amount of money, what he doesn’t have is people, grassroots people and he is determined to work with anyone and use that money to gain the presidency. Is Buhari willing to provide the fertile ground that allows an alliance between Atiku and Tinubu to take root?
After the Ibrahim Babangida group overthrew Buhari in 1985, the evil genius established a committee that predictably recommended the return of all assets seized by General Murtala Muhammed’s regime in the wake of his fight against unexplained wealth. Buhari has to understand that one reason he is not popular with a section of the elite right now is because of his relentless fight against sleaze and many of our compatriots will hail the return of the multi-billion Naira assets and cash by an Atiku government, and nothing stops Atiku from doing this if he finds himself in the Villa. Is Buhari going to do something to help Atiku get into the Villa and call off the fight against corruption?
If you disable your alliance with Tinubu, you have to craft one with the South East or South South, is it something you want to do? Indeed, is it something you can do? Can you do it between now and 2019?
When you see a malevolent character like Femi Fani-Kayode, whose vocation is to abuse a government and its head until and they employ him, once you see perennial opposition and garrulous, unelectable paper politicians like Ayo Adebanjo and Yinka Odumakin, as well as a clown like Ayo Fayose, the governor of Ekiti state, gravitating towards Tinubu, then you need to pause and ask yourself whether you are treating the APC national leader well. President Buhari needs to step back and ask himself what is the contribution to his victory of all those egging him on to contain or limit Tinubu’s influence in APC. The only time Buhari won the presidency was when he worked together with Tinubu. Nothing must be done to alienate this man; whether Buhari contests for the presidency in 2019 or not, he needs to preserve his alliance with the Jagaban Borgu.