By-elections: Still no lessons learnt

Confidence in Nigeria’s electoral process has continued to erode as the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) again struggles to conduct elections that inspire trust. The by-elections held on August 16 across 18 constituencies in 12 states have confirmed that stakeholders in the electoral process, politicians, INEC, security agencies, and even voters have failed to learn […]

Confidence in Nigeria’s electoral process has continued to erode as the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) again struggles to conduct elections that inspire trust. The by-elections held on August 16 across 18 constituencies in 12 states have confirmed that stakeholders in the electoral process, politicians, INEC, security agencies, and even voters have failed to learn from the mistakes of the past.

Instead of reassuring Nigerians, the exercise has only deepened fears about what lies ahead in 2027. While it has become typical for Nigerian politicians to endorse only elections that favour them, reports from voters and observers suggest that the polls, despite being limited in scope and easier to monitor, were far from free of irregularities.

For many citizens, the conclusion is clear: INEC and the political class are repeating the same failures, steadily undermining public faith in democracy.

Voter turnout continues to dwindle as violence, intimidation, vote buying, thuggery, and manipulation remain entrenched features of the system. The issues that plagued Nigerian elections in the past have persisted. Instead, they resurface in new forms, casting a long shadow over the future. If these by-elections were dress rehearsals for 2027, then Nigerians have every reason to worry.

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Much of the anxiety stems from INEC’s credibility crisis under Professor Mahmood Yakubu, who is due to step down later this year after the longest tenure of any chairman since 1999. Many had expected the August 16 polls to represent his swan song, a chance to cement his legacy. Instead, they have amplified doubts about what that legacy will be. Although several reviews of the Electoral Act and the introduction of technology into the voting process have been conducted, the reality is that reforms have failed to restore confidence.

The disappointment of Nigerians over the collapse of the INEC Result Viewing (IReV) portal in 2023 still lingers. Before the presidential election, INEC promised electronic transmission of results but abruptly reversed to manual collation, citing technical glitches during the polls. That explanation, never convincingly made, left many disillusioned. It was a pivotal failure that tarnished the credibility of the entire process.

Apart from this ‘glitch’, both domestic and international observers documented widespread irregularities that included voter suppression, vote buying, and questionable campaign financing. These were the issues that INEC was expected to correct in subsequent off-cycle elections. Yet the August by-elections suggest little progress has been made.

Since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, elections have been plagued by malpractice, from ballot snatching to inflated figures and collusion in collation. The hope was that reforms and new technologies such as the smart card reader, the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS), and now IReV would finally break the cycle. But the results so far suggest that technology alone cannot fix systemic failure.

INEC, however, is not solely to blame. Politicians have failed to act like democrats. The winner-takes-all attitude that dominates Nigerian politics has corrupted the process. After ballot-box snatching was curbed, politicians found other ways to subvert elections through vote buying and voter suppression. This desperation to secure victory at any cost is now the dominant feature of Nigerian elections. It is no rocket science: anyone who genuinely wishes to serve the people would not resort to thuggery, intimidation, or bribery to force themselves into power.

The security agencies, whose neutrality should strengthen the process, have also been compromised. Allegations of collusion with the political class are rife. Security operatives are often accused of either looking the other way during violence and intimidation or actively aiding those who flout electoral laws. Such conduct undermines confidence in their role as impartial protectors of law and order.

But ordinary Nigerians must also take responsibility. If there are no vote sellers, there cannot be vote buyers. Citizens must rise above the immediate gratification of a few thousand naira handed out by politicians. Selling one’s vote is not just a personal failure; it is a sabotage of the collective future. Once a leader has bought his way into office, accountability becomes impossible. With the country facing high inflation and severe economic hardship, many feel tempted to accept inducements. But the truth remains that today’s small sacrifice of rejecting handouts is the only guarantee of a future where government is accountable.

This is where other stakeholders, particularly civil society organisations and the government-owned National Orientation Agency, must step up. Voter education must go beyond slogans. Citizens need sustained sensitisation on the dangers of vote trading and the importance of civic responsibility. Without this, reforms and technology will achieve little.

The cost of flawed elections is too high to ignore. Billions of naira are spent on the electoral process, yet the outcomes consistently fall short of expectations. When transparency is absent, when institutions appear compromised, and when citizens lose confidence, democracy itself is imperilled.

Daily Trust, therefore, call on all stakeholders to take urgent corrective steps. INEC must fix its operational failures and enforce electoral laws without fear or favour. Politicians must end their desperation and embrace democratic competition in its true spirit. Security agencies must shun partisanship and protect all voters equally. And Nigerians must reject inducements, however tempting, that mortgage their future.

If Nigeria continues on this path of repeated failures, the 2027 general elections may deepen disillusionment and threaten national stability. The country cannot afford another round of elections that further delegitimise democracy.