Can JANDOR cause an upset in Tinubu’s territory?

Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the 2023 presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) is arguably one of the names that have remained dominant in the political space since he emerged as the 12th governor of Lagos State in 1999. Pundits say the dexterity of the Third Republic senator to have control over Lagos State […]

Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the 2023 presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) is arguably one of the names that have remained dominant in the political space since he emerged as the 12th governor of Lagos State in 1999.

Pundits say the dexterity of the Third Republic senator to have control over Lagos State and extend such influence not only to other states and regions in the country, but the presidency, has made him the master of the political chess game and the numero uno kingmaker.

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When PDP was the ruling party at the centre and Olusegun Obasanjo was the president, his combined military and civilian powers could not install the then PDP candidate, Senator Musiliu Obanikoro. Tinubu had his way with the election of the then candidate, Babatunde Raji Fashola, who spent his eight years uninterrupted then under the defunct Action Congress (AC) and later Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN).

Akinwunmi Ambode took over in 2015 after Fashola completed his tenure and the winning streak continued with Sanwo-Olu in the saddle. The infighting which consumed Sanwo-Olu’s successor and denied him a second term ticket despite being a sitting governor could not thwart the history of winning by the Jagaban.

However, as he targets the number one position in the country, a former member of his political family, Dr. Abdul-Azeez Olajide Adediran (JANDOR), is threatening his dominance in Lagos, the commercial hub of Nigeria.

JANDOR, who until recently was a member of the APC and one of the known critics of the alleged autocratic rule of Tinubu in determining who gets what within the ruling party, came to political relevance with the establishment of a grassroots mobilisation group within the Lagos APC, called Lagos4Lagos.

The lead visioner of the Lagos4Lagos was so confident of the numerical strength of his group that he dared the powers that be in the Lagos APC to organise an elective congress and not consensus during its Ward Congresses in July 2021.

“We have the numbers; let them set out for elective Congress, why are they begging for consensus? This is the movement that has been in existence for the past six years and within the period we have gone everywhere at the grassroots sensitising the people, collecting data, mobilising for a period like this. What (rally) we did about three weeks ago was to show that we are not just ranting, to show them that we understand the game, we know the nitty-gritty of this trade and we are playing it better.

“At the rally, we said, ‘if they move, we’ll stay. If they stay, we will consume them.’ Consuming them means we have numerical strength. 2023 is the year we will return the party to the members. We will reject a godfather’s offer of another puppet as governor of Lagos State,” he had told Daily Trust on Sunday in an exclusive interview in June ahead of the congress.

Although JANDOR ensured that members of his movement bought forms for all positions in what he termed an audacious move to take over the APC in the state, the party opted for a consensus. Despite the group’s appearance before the Lagos State APC Ward Congress Appeal Committee set up by then Mai Mala Buni-led National Caretaker Committee, the result from the consensus was ratified, forcing JANDOR and his movement to pull out of the APC.

His defection to the PDP was witnessed by serving governors of the party, including Seyi Makinde (Oyo State), Dr. Okezie Ikpeazu (Abia), Udom Emmanuel (Akwa Ibom), Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi (Enugu) and Nyesom Wike (Rivers).

National Chairman of the PDP, Iyorchia Ayu; former Senate President, Dr. Bukola Saraki; erstwhile governor of Ondo State, Olusegun Mimiko, as well as members of the National Assembly, Houses of Assembly and National Working Committee (NWC) of the party were also at the Tafawa Balewa Square (TBS) to receive JANDOR and his followers. 

The party’s vice-presidential candidate in the 2019 general election and 2023 presidential candidate of Labour Party (LP) Peter Obi also witnessed the defection.

“Our job of winning Lagos State is three quarters done with the PDP ticket. We have prepared for this over the years and everybody can see the traction and followership,” he said in an interview with Daily Trust after picking the party’s ticket, defeating five other aspirants.

Since picking the ticket, JANDOR has boasted at different fora of defeating Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu and ending the godfatherism of Jagaban of Borgu kingdom in Lagos State. What are his strategies?

Lagos4Lagos: From interviews granted, JANDOR is banking on the strength of the movement which is estimated to be over 150,000 with presence in every polling unit in the state. He claimed to have caused an implosion in the APC by pulling out the Lagos4Lagos movement.

“I was coming from that camp and the first thing we did was to implode it. What we took from there, we then brought it to PDP that has been doing between 35-40percent at every election cycle. So, we have taken their deficit there. When we started in APC, they did everything to stop us but they couldn’t,” he said in a recent interview.

However, about 5,000 members of the movement on Thursday returned to the APC, accusing JANDOR of lacking accountability in the running of its affair.

Leader of the defectors, Hon. Idowu Daramola from Mushin, Ilupeju Ward 1 at a reception attended by the Deputy Governor, Dr. Obafemi Hamzat, and other leaders of APC, said the emergence of Tinubu as presidential candidate made them to have a rethink about their direction.

Coordinator, Jandor for Diaspora, Kashim Akanbi, said the emergence of Tinubu as the party’s candidate changed the dynamics of politics not only in Lagos but the entire Nigeria, saying he had no option than to join the progressives.

Pro-masses posture: Successive APC governments in Lagos State have been accused of being elitist and churning out policies that affect the poor. JANDOR is cashing in on this to woo the electorate.

He visited and donated cash to victims of the controversial car auctioning exercise while promising ‘humane’ measures for traffic violators in the state. He also intervened when the family of 22-year-old Oluwabamise Ayanwola, who was allegedly raped and murdered by a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) driver, Andrew Omnnikoron, said the state government demanded money before releasing her body.

In fact, Lagos4Lagos started as a non-governmental organisation dedicated to helping the downtrodden.

The graduate of the Polytechnic Ibadan has also assured market men and women in the state of institutionalising democratic values in the choice of market leaders, instead of Babalojas and Iyalojas “harassing them to close shops at will.”

Although the choice of Funke Akindele as running mate was to woo netizens and first-time voters, the campaign team is now leveraging on her popularity among the masses, especially those who see her as their favourite Nollywood/Sitcom star.

Indigeneship: The PDP candidate has been vocal that Badagry division, despite enjoying a pride of place in Nigerian history and strategic to Lagos State, is the least developed and poorly represented in the administration of the state. 

The division, which consists of four local governments (Ojo, Amuwo-Odofin, Ajeromi-Ifelodun, and Badagry) and six local council development areas (Iba, Ifelodun, Olorunda, Oriade, Badagry West and Oto-Awori), is also part of Lagos West Senatorial District, which has the highest voting population in the state. JANDOR, who is an Awori, is banking on this numerical strength among others to defeat Sanwo-Olu.

Related to this is his slogan ‘Ja fun Eko’ (fight for Lagos) as he claimed that the state has only worked for a few in the corridors of power.

However, Sanwo-Olu has maintained that Lagos and its wealth is for all.

Media war: For the first time in the state, the APC is on the defensive. JANDOR and his team have been vocal in criticising the government’s policies and forcing them to defend their actions. Although the state government and APC are quick to dismiss JANDOR’s chances at the poll, analysts say they must be disturbed by his antics of putting them on the defensive over every policy.

Touring 245 wards: JANDOR has released a 5-month calendar of activities covering the electioneering campaign period from October 12 to February 10, 2023. The campaign calendar revealed that he will tour the entire 245 wards across the 20 local government areas of the state and also hold special sessions with strategic groups, opinion leaders, traditional, religious, and all critical stakeholders.

However, the spokesperson of APC, Seye Oladejo, said the party remains the choice of the electorate.

“We are not in a panic mood; we are the party to beat. It is the other party that is in a panic mood because their candidates are unknown,” he said.

PDP not ready to win Lagos

Speaking with Daily Trust on Sunday, an Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Lagos, Kayode Esuola, said there is no empirical evidence suggesting that the opposition, especially the PDP, was ready to defeat the ruling party.

He said, “The temperament of Lagos politics does not show that PDP can wrest power from APC at this point. This is because the party, APC, has for long established hegemonic forces across Lagos and that has registered in the mind of the people to the extent that any other party appears strange. So, I do not think based on the temperament of the polity that PDP is capable of making any difference as of now.

“However, democracy is what it is. It is important for PDP to keep fielding candidates and the candidate keeps challenging the hegemonic entrenchment of the APC.

“If not anything, that would keep the ruling party on its toes to continue to do what it thinks people accept about it and that is the beauty of democracy.”

Going to polls with divided house

At every election cycle, the Lagos PDP has remained its own major enemy, going to polls with a divided house and members openly working against the party. The March 11, 2023 poll is not looking different as the acclaimed leader of the party in the state, Chief Olabode George, who was among the people who facilitated JANDOR’s defection, is aggrieved over the refusal of the candidate to pick Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour, GRV as his running mate. 

Gbadebo is now the candidate of the Labour Party (LP). Some elders in the party are also said to be unhappy with the way JANDOR has allegedly turned the campaign to a one-man show. Some PDP governors, including Governor Nyesom Wike, who recently endorsed Sanwo-Olu for a second term, are said to be unhappy with JANDOR.

Chief George appears to have resigned to fate over the possibility of a PDP candidate defeating Tinubu’s candidate. He has been preoccupied with the national party politics and joined the campaign for the removal of the party’s national chairman, Ayu, to be replaced by a Southern candidate to achieve some balancing in the party’s hierarchy after the emergence of Atiku Abubakar, a Northerner, as the presidential candidate.

Apart from losing key figures of the party in the state to the APC, those still left in the PDP are said to be exploring exit options, presently standing aloof as the campaign heats up.

The closest the PDP has come in recent time to winning Lagos was in 2015 when Jimi Agbaje polled 659,788 votes against Akinwunmi Ambode’s 811,994 votes.

Can JANDOR cause an upset in Lagos State? Will his strategies be enough to unseat Sanwo-Olu and enthrone a PDP-led government in Lagos State? It is left to be seen at the polls.