Can Nigeria attain rice self-sufficiency this year?

Our domestic supply, estimated at about 3 million metric tonnes is far from meeting our consumption requirement, which is put at over 5 million metric tonnes, a situation that encourages massive importation and smuggling in order to meet local demand. The federal government has, however, maintained that Nigeria will become self-sufficient in rice production and […]

Our domestic supply, estimated at about 3 million metric tonnes is far from meeting our consumption requirement, which is put at over 5 million metric tonnes, a situation that encourages massive importation and smuggling in order to meet local demand.
The federal government has, however, maintained that Nigeria will become self-sufficient in rice production and that its importation into the country will be banned this year.
In an attempt by this administration to achieve its production target on some crops, the government listed cassava and other crops as its transformation crops, with extra fund allocated for all the crops on the list but which failed to include rice and yet deciding to use rice to major its performance in the agricultural sector.
As a way to enhance rice and other crops production and food self-sufficiency this year, the Minister of Agriculture, Dr. Akinwumi Adesina, has been releasing three bags of subsidised fertilisers and improved varieties of rice, maize, cocoa, cassava, cotton and sorghum among others to farmers across the country in the past four years.
Rice farmers and others were also assisted by the government to boost dry season farming activities in various parts of the country so as to generate additional yield.    
To complement the efforts of the federal government, some state governments were said to have keyed into the Agricultural Transformation Agenda and reportedly came up with various programmes to boost rice production so as to meet the targeted time for ban in importation.
Yet, feelers from various stakeholders indicate that even with the recent statistic of about 7 to 8 million metric tonnes output of paddy rice reeled out by the Rice Investors Group, the 2015 target for rice self-sufficiency remains bleak.
This is because experts say that 7 to 8 million metric tonnes of paddy rice translates to about 3.5 to 4 million metric tonnes of milled rice, which falls below the domestic demand of over 5 million metric tonnes per annum.
Bridging the demand and supply gap in few months from now may require a magic wand as many rice farmers are complaining of poor market among other challenges and could abandon rice farming.
 “I still have over 20 bags of paddy rice harvested last year lying unsold. I pray to get buyers before next farming season, if not I will be in trouble. In fact, I borrowed some money to farm the rice,” one of the rice farmers, Malam Adamu Abubakar lamented.
But the agriculture minister seems not to agree with what some of the rice farmers are saying. Speaking recently on a Radio Nigeria programme tagged ‘Politics Nationwide’, he maintained that a lot has been achieved in the rice value chain, adding that the country’s rice production has increased to 7 million metric tonnes. He boasted that Nigeria will be a net exporter of rice in the next three years, but was silent on the rice self-sufficiency and ban on importation slated for this year.        
Considering so many factors at present working against rapid increase in production of rice and other crops by Nigerian farmers, many observers have expressed doubt in the country’s ability to meet up with the 2015 rice self-sufficiency and import ban target.
It would be recalled that in 2012, farmlands for rice and other crops including livestock were destroyed by unprecedented floods across the country, which affected business activities including farming. Many of the affected communities fled their homes abandoning their farms.
The natural disaster created a big gap in food supply generally, not rice alone, and made food prices to skyrocket due to shortage in supply. Some government officials however dismissed the shortage in rice supply then claiming it was artificial, but analysts said it was real and a threat to the rice subsector.  They attributed the situation to several factors including inadequate investments in rice production, flood and insecurity in some parts of the country.
An analyst, Mr. Danladi Bala, believes that the problem of ageing farmers coupled with our traditional farming method of hoe and cutlass, which has discouraged young ones from going into farming as a business, is one of the major factors militating against food production, including rice in the country.
“Our land tenure system, which has not been favourable to women whose main business is farming, is also not helping matters. In many parts of Nigeria, women own no farmland they can call their own and the government is not prepared to tackle this challenge. I doubt if we can attain self-sufficiency in rice production in the near future,” Mr. Bala said.
Speaking to Daily Trust on the 2015 rice self-sufficiency target, the president, All Farmers Association of Nigeria (AFAN), Architect Kabiru Ibrahim, maintained that whether the country is self-sufficient or not, the ban can still be imposed to help local rice farmers, saying “we have alternative crops such as guinea corn, maize, wheat and others which Nigerians can depend on to cover the short fall.”
He recalled that when there was bird-flu outbreak during former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s administration, poultry and poultry products importation and exportation was banned, smugglers were checkmated and Nigerians depended on local production alone. “This can work in the case of rice as well. I live near the border. All sorts of rice are smuggled into the country to kill local market,” he added.  
Some stakeholders in the agricultural sector believe that the agriculture minister, Dr. Adesina, has his magic wand, but the big question many farmers and others are asking is, can Nigeria attain rice self-sufficiency this year amidst a myriad of challenges facing the agricultural sector?
The Technical Adviser to All Farmers Association of Nigeria (AFAN), Dr. Tunde Arosanyi said AFAN is not aware of the programme where some farmers claimed they are self-sufficient in rice production and can even export.
“On self-sufficiency and exportation of rice to other countries, though there is improvement but the nation has not reached self-sufficiency yet. If the tempo continues this way it would still take up to four years before we can talk of sufficiency and exportation,” he said.
According to him, government is trying in terms of input but the three bags to a farmer under the Growth Enhancement Scheme  (GES) is not enough while many farmers who are not captured under the GES do not have access to input, stressing that more people need to be captured.