Can Yar’adua return to presidency?

The much-awaited return of President Umaru Musa Yar’adua to the country this week as promised by his handlers did not come to pass. Rather, there are fresh speculations that he will return next week. The previous week experienced a particularly decisive moment concerning the status of his health when an Abuja High Court gave the […]

The much-awaited return of President Umaru Musa Yar’adua to the country this week as promised by his handlers did not come to pass. Rather, there are fresh speculations that he will return next week. The previous week experienced a particularly decisive moment concerning the status of his health when an Abuja High Court gave the Federal Executive Council a 14-day ultimatum to issue a definitive statement on the president’s health condition.

This could have prompted the handlers of the president to quickly arrange for his return to the country. This happened amidst unconfirmed reports of the importation of a life support machine that would keep the president going to avoid his being declared incapacitated and unfit to continue in office. A source close to the Aso Rock Villa told Weekly Trust on condition of anonymity that even before the recent illness that sent Yar’adua to Saudi Arabia, he was supposed to work officially for only four hours in a day, because of the precariousness of his health condition.

The president who has a history of kidney problem now suffers from acute pericarditis, a swelling around the heart that limits its function thus further compounding his health problems. In August 2008 when he returned from Saudi Arabia where he’d been hospitalised for three weeks, he effected some major changes in his cabinet by sacking the Secretary to the Federal Government, Babagana Kingibe, a close associate who was until then thought of as powerful.

Then like now, there were a lot of political intrigues in the corridors of the State House regarding the loyalty or suspected disloyalty of those who work closely with the president. This could have in some ways dictated the stance of members of the president’s cabinet concerning his health in the fear of his eventual recovery and return. They have so far been cagey about their views concerning whether Vice President Goodluck Jonathan should act on behalf of the president in his absence even though a groundswell of people from all over the country seems to support that decision.

This time around, speculation is rife that should the president return, he might push for an early election this year as against 2011 so as to oversee the anointment of a preferred successor, reminiscent of former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s style, which brought Yar’adua from virtual obscurity and made him president. Other people are speculating that he would reinstate the Office of the Chief of Staff, which he abolished earlier and which usually serves as a means of taking pressure directly off the president.

The President’s handlers are equally calculating that if the sickness can be managed till the middle of the year when hopefully the electoral reform would have been finalised, the 2011 election can then be shifted to 2010 in line with the recommendation of the Electoral Reform Committee, which recommended that election should be held within six months to the swearing-in of the winner.

For the Conference of Nigerian Political Parties (CNPP), the issue of Yar’adua coming back to take charge of government no longer exists. CNPP spokesman, Osita Okechukwu, said, “We have passed the stage of President Yar’adua returning to power in Nigeria. A situation where you have eminent Nigerians like the former Head of State, Gen. Yakubu Gowon, former President Shehu Shagari, Chief Ernest Shonekan, Dr Alex Ekwueme, former Chief Justices of Nigeria, Idris Kutigi and Alfa Belgore, among others, calling on the president to transfer power to Vice President Goodluck Jonathan is a serious matter. Even if the President returns today, he is expected to hand over power and go and rest in order to regain his health, because it is obvious he can’t continue governing the country,” Okechukwu said.

He also chides the Federal Executive Council for giving Yar’adua a clean bill of health. “I think it is high time we challenged the Federal Executive Council to publish the medical report upon which they based their declaration that the president was fit. The constitution vested on the president executive powers and he took an oath to uphold that and preserve the constitution. We don’t know how he will carry out the executive powers vested on him when he is bedridden. FEC declaration is condemnable and dangerous to the sustenance of democracy,” he said.

He challenged members of the House of Representatives to rise to the occasion and take a proactive stance on the absence of Mr President. “We are calling on the House of Representatives to begin to demand the transmission of power to Vice President Goodluck Jonathan. They should toe the line of the Senate. They should remember that they took an oath to make laws for the good governance, peace and progress of the country. In the absence of the Commander-in-Chief, no good governance and progress can be achieved. Who will endorse the 2010 budget after it is passed by the House or are they going to forge his signature again? They should treat the matter with the urgency it deserves and stop dilly-dallying.”

Are the Senate and FEC positions the same?

Political observers are of the opinion that the much-celebrated Senate position that Yar’adua should transmit a letter to them indicating that he is on sick vacation is not different from the position of the FEC which said the president is fit, because the Senate conveniently avoided giving a time line within which the President is to submit such a letter, which means he can be there till the end of the year.

The Senate did not also specify whether an action would be taken against the president if he fails to issue the letter. Buba Galadima, a member of the opposition and prominent participant at the recent Save Nigeria Group demonstration in Abuja, said the Senate decision is just to buy time for Mr President. “The decision of the Senate is vague; it is neither here nor there. It is just to buy time, so that they can subvert the constitution. There is no time limit within which the president will submit the said letter. It simply means that the president can stay in Saudi Arabia for the next one thousand years.”

Galadima chided the Peoples Democratic Party for what he called their disservice to democracy in Nigeria. “PDP has succeeded in killing democracy completely. They have thrown all known democratic principles to the dogs. They have jettisoned a cardinal aspect of their 7-point agenda, which is the rule of law. Look at what they have done to the ruling of Justice Dan Abutu. If anything happens to democracy, PDP should be held responsible.

“There is nothing like zoning in the constitution. What the constitution envisages is that there will be two people on a ticket. If one dies or becomes incapacitated, the other person takes over. We are not saying we like Jonathan, but he has been destined by constitutional provision to be there. Jonathan is one of them, so why are they trying to subvert the constitution to prevent him from taking over? Once you subvert the constitution, you are inviting chaos and anarchy. And anything can happen,” he stressed.

Galadima also condemned the Eminent Persons Group led by former President Shehu Shagari for acting too late. “I don’t believe in what they are doing. It is belated. Is it not the same Shagari that said people like me were crying foul where there was none when we asked the president to hand over power almost a month ago?” he queried.

The Action Congress (AC) described the decision of the Federal Executive Council (FEC) which declared President Umaru Musa Yar’adua capable of leading Nigeria in spite of his serious health challenges as an attempt to buy time. The AC National Publicity Secretary, Alhaji Lai Mohammed, in a telephone interview with Weekly Trust, said the selfish interest of FEC members would not allow them to comply with Section 145 of the Constitution.

Mohammed said there was nothing significant in the resolution of the Senate, adding that members of the Senate should be ashamed of themselves for such a simple decision after eight weeks. He spoke further on the resolution of FEC and the Senate: “If the Senate thought that we should applaud them, I think they will be disappointed. We do not see what is wrong with that decision. There is no ambiguity. That is a simple, unambiguous position of the Constitution.

“This is what our party has been clamouring for all along. But it has taken the Senate eight weeks to arrive at that conclusion. They should be ashamed of themselves bearing in mind the fact that some of them are members of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). It is very obvious that what they did was wrong. This is part of their oversight functions which they failed to do. If they are expecting any applause from us, I think we are not impressed yet.

“As per FEC, I think we have said it a long time ago that if anybody expects any act of patriotism from that body, I think that person has put his trust in a wrong place. We said a long time ago that there will be a very long campaign to begin a process that will terminate the election of their appointer. Doing that is like suicide to them.

“But I think must there be a resolution from the Senate before they perform their responsibility and to know the right thing to be done. The Senate passed a resolution saying they want to douse tension or pressure in the polity. I think we are not ready to follow our Constitution. We are not ready to deepen our democracy,” he added.

Osita on the other hand praised the Senate for their resolution on the President. “We commend the Senate for placing national interest above selfish and parochial interest. They have demonstrated that the issue at stake is greater than an individual. They believe that the president is mature and they don’t need to give him a timeline because the resolution of the Senate on any issue is weighty enough for the president to know and take the appropriate step.”

The PDP National Publicity Secretary, Prof. Rufai Ahmed Alkali, in his reaction to the position of the FEC, praised them for passing a vote of confidence on the president. “The resolution of the FEC reinforced the party’s stand and belief that the machinery of the state is still functioning optimally notwithstanding the temporary absence of President Yar’adua.

“It is high time we called on politicians, especially those who held and are still holding sensitive positions of responsibility to refrain from engaging in divisive tendencies capable of inflaming negative passions,” he said.

On whether the party is afraid of making Jonathan Acting President, he said the PDP as a party is not afraid of giving support to the vice president. “On the contrary, it is the party that has been giving the VP all the support that he needs. We are in constant discussion with him on every matter concerning the party and the country,” he explained.

Can the President survive the mounting pressure?

A new and powerful group of elder statesmen led by former President Shehu Shagari under the auspices of Eminent Elders Group (EEG) on Thursday, January 28 presented a letter to the Vice President and the National Assembly asking President Yar’adua to transmit a letter of medical vacation to the National Assembly in line with Section 145 of the constitution to enable Vice President Jonathan to act as president.

They said, “In order to resolve the present crisis in the country, President Yar’adua must comply with Section 145 of the constitution. It is important to resolve the issue by inviting Mr President to formally issue the necessary communication that will enable the Vice President to be the Acting President in accordance with Section 145 of the 1999 Constitution as soon as possible.” The group comprised Gen. Yakubu Gowon, Chief Ernest Shonekan, Dr Alex Ekwueme, former Chief Justices Idris Kutigi, Alfa Belgore, Adamu Ciroma, Gen. Theophilus Danjuma and Prof. Jerry Gana.

In the same vein, a new group called The Patriots has emerged in the National Assembly and has gathered 150 signatures of members toward the enforcement of Section 145 of the constitution. It would be recalled that last week, former Senate President, Anyim Pius Anyim, also led agroup of 41 comprising people like Hassan Adamu, Wakilin Adamawa; Senator Ibrahim Mantu; General Muhammad Magoro; Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, among others to call on Yar’adua to hand over to Jonathan.

Before then, the Save Nigeria Group had organised a protest rally in Abuja and Lagos on the same issue. The group which comprised members like Professor Wole Soyinka, Ndubuisi Kanu, Gen. Alani Akinrinade, Femi Falana, are also bent on ending the constitutional crisis in the country by making sure that the president hands over to the vice president.

The president’s dilemma brings forth the proverbial dilemma of the cat with nine lives. Only time will tell how he will survive the growing chorus of those asking him to hand over power to his vice while he continues in office in absentia.