CBN may cut rates by up to 100bps, analyst predicts
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) could cut rates as much as 100 basis points on Tuesday as inflationary pressures cool, Lukman Otunuga, a senior Market Analyst at FXTM, has predicted. The projection is ahead of the outcome of the CBN Monetary Policy Committee meeting between Monday and Tuesday. Otunuga said moderating inflation has strengthened […]
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) could cut rates as much as 100 basis points on Tuesday as inflationary pressures cool, Lukman Otunuga, a senior Market Analyst at FXTM, has predicted.
The projection is ahead of the outcome of the CBN Monetary Policy Committee meeting between Monday and Tuesday.
Otunuga said moderating inflation has strengthened the case for policy easing.
According to Otunuga, Nigeria’s annual inflation slowed to 16.05% in October 2025, the softest reading since March 2022.
He noted that persistent signs of cooling price pressures have given the CBN “breathing room” to lower rates in a bid to support economic growth after a long stretch of tightening.
The analyst added that fresh insights into the country’s economic trajectory will come on 28 November when Nigeria publishes its third-quarter GDP results.
“Speaking of growth, Nigeria’s Q3 GDP will be published on 28th November. More signs of recovering growth may boost sentiment and encourage the CBN to pursue its expansionary monetary policy,” he said.
Otunuga noted that equity markets have already kicked off on a positive note with tech leading gains amid rising expectations for a December US rate cut.
He highlighted weekend talks involving US, Ukrainian and European diplomats on a potential Russia-Ukraine peace plan.
“Should talks end in a deadlock, this could spark risk aversion across the board,” the analyst said.
Turning to the United Kingdom, Otunuga said, “GBPUSD could be set for a week of mayhem due to the pivotal UK Autumn budget on Wednesday, 26th November. With the UK fiscal hole as much as £30 billion, tax hikes are expected, potentially leading to more pain for consumers with a drop in disposable income, hitting growth. If this raises bets around lower UK rates, the Pound could be in for fresh pain.”
In the United States, the analyst pointed out that incoming US retail sales and PPI may provide more insight into the health of the economy.
“Should data disappoint, this may fuel bets around the Fed cutting rates in December,” he said.
Otunuga also noted that Bitcoin remains under pressure following last week’s steep selloff.
He said, “Despite the recent rebound, prices are on track for their worst month since 2022 with prices down nearly 10% year-to-date. Bitcoin is wobbling around $86,000 as of writing. Persistent weakness below $90,000 signalling a selloff toward $80,500 and lower.”
On commodities, the analyst said oil prices dipped on optimism surrounding possible progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, while gold continues to trade within a broad range.
“A potent fundamental catalyst may be needed to trigger a break above $4130 or below $4000. This may come in the form of geopolitical developments or key US data,” he added.