Crisis in Ukraine

Russia has responded by sending in troops ostensibly to secure its huge military base in the Crimea, sparking alarm bells in the West and two emergency sessions of the United Nations Security Council in as many days, without a satisfactory outcome.  As the United States, Canada, Britain and France put off attending an economic summit […]

Russia has responded by sending in troops ostensibly to secure its huge military base in the Crimea, sparking alarm bells in the West and two emergency sessions of the United Nations Security Council in as many days, without a satisfactory outcome.  As the United States, Canada, Britain and France put off attending an economic summit planned for the Russian city of Sochi in June in a diplomatic response, the fate of Ukraine hangs in the balance. The uncertainty deepened after the upper house of the Russian parliament to authorize President Vladimir Putin to deploy troops to Ukraine. Putin said no decision has been made to send troops into other parts of Ukraine, and that those deployed in Sevastopol in the Crimea were to protect the Black Sea fleet and the ethnic Russian speaking majority of the region, who have in fact hoisted the Russian flag atop government buildings and asked Russia for protection.  Ukraine’s acting president Oleksander Turchynov said Russia had declared war on his country. The conflict is potentially the most serious between Russia and the West since the end of the Cold War.  
There are no good options. The West, which had backed the street protests that turned bloody in the last few days, is now faced with difficult choices, a war with Russia and the prospect of partition of Ukraine.
US President Barack Obama accused Russia of violating Ukraine’s sovereignty; Putin rejected that characterisation, insisting that Russia had the right to safeguard its interests. Crimea might be the flashpoint of a major conflict largely because of its strategic significance to Russia and its ethnic composition of Russians, Ukrainians and Tartars, a Muslim minority group. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia negotiated a lease agreement with Ukraine over its black fleet in the Crimea, scheduled to last until 2047.
The latest crisis was triggered by Yanukovych’s apparent refusal to sign an association agreement with the European Union, a prelude to formal membership, a possibility that Russia resents. This led to violent protests by pro-Western nationalists in Kiev.
Following weeks of protests in Kiev, Yanukovych was toppled despite the fact that EU foreign ministers had brokered a deal in which the president agreed to form a more inclusive government among other things. The protesters lacked support of the southern and eastern provinces, prompting pro-Russian elements to take over the parliament building in Simferopol, the Crimean capital.  At the same time the Tartars who are anti-Russian have pledged their support for the new administration in Kiev.
Given the strategic importance of Ukraine to Russia, Moscow has reasons to be wary of Ukraine’s putative association with the EU, fearing encirclement by hostile nations. US’s moves to incorporate states that were part of the former Soviet Union considered by Russia as its sphere of influence, into the Western alliance, particularly the EU and NATO, has long been a source of tension between Russia and the West.     
Russia demonstrated its aversion to such a move when its troops overran Georgia, another former Soviet republic close to the West, in aid of pro-Russian territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
There is the danger that the Ukraine crisis might snowball into a proxy war between the Russians on the one hand supporting ethnic Russians and pro-Russian elements in Ukraine against the US and the EU-backed Western Ukraine on the other. This could lead to the breakup of the country, a prospect that should be avoided.
Western rhetoric and threats to isolate Russia will only appeal to nationalistic sentiments of ethnic Russians and galvanise support for Putin’s tough stance on Ukraine.
Russia has legitimate concerns over the unfolding events in Kiev which the West must recognise and address in a cool-headed manner, in order to avert a repeat of what happened in Georgia.
 Ukraine, in the final analysis, should have some leeway to associate with the EU, and at the same time, retain its strategic alliance with Russia.