DEFECTIONS UPDATE: Opposition can still mount serious challenge
Political analyst Ahmad Sufi speaks on the broader implications of recent defections to the APC ahead of the 2027 general election Are we seeing signs of Nigeria tilting toward a one-party state with the APC’s growing dominance? I don’t think so. While the APC is consolidating its grip, other parties like the PDP are […]
analyst
Political analyst Ahmad Sufi speaks on the broader implications of recent defections to the APC ahead of the 2027 general election
Are we seeing signs of Nigeria tilting toward a one-party state with the APC’s growing dominance?
I don’t think so. While the APC is consolidating its grip, other parties like the PDP are still very much in play. The PDP still controls several states, has federal and state legislators, and retains considerable political capital. Even with some defections, the PDP is far from dead. And then we have the SDP, which is gradually becoming a new force—especially with recent high-profile defections like that of former Kaduna Governor Nasir El-Rufai.
For example, within 48 hours of El-Rufai joining the SDP, we saw former Senator Ahmed Babba Kaita from Katsina also joining. These moves show that there is life outside the APC and PDP.
Could an alliance of opposition parties mount a serious challenge to the APC in 2027?
That’s very possible. There are already ongoing discussions among opposition elements about forming alliances or coalitions. If major political actors outside the APC agree to unite under a single platform or enter into strategic partnerships, the ruling party can be seriously challenged. But it all depends on what kind of decisions they make in the coming months and what platform they adopt.
Even if such a grand coalition doesn’t happen, the PDP and other emerging parties still have the potential to keep the democratic space competitive. So, I don’t see a clear path toward a one-party state just yet.
But aren’t we already seeing signs of mass defections to the APC? Doesn’t that suggest a consolidation of power?
Yes, there have been defections, and there may be more. But defections are part of Nigeria’s political culture, especially as election cycles draw near. That said, a mass movement into one party doesn’t necessarily signal the end of opposition politics. It may only indicate short-term alignment, often based on personal or regional interests.
What’s more important is how the opposition responds. If they remain passive, then yes, we may be in trouble. But if they reorganize, regroup, and seize the momentum, 2027 could still be wide open.
Looking at recent resignations and realignments, do you think we’re at the beginning of something bigger?
Absolutely. Many politicians are adopting a wait-and-see approach for now. It’s too early for some to make their moves public. But behind the scenes, there’s a lot of strategic repositioning going on. Some are resigning from government positions, while others are quietly realigning themselves with opposition forces.
So yes, this is just the beginning. The next 12 to 18 months will be critical as politicians start to show their hands. We’ll see more defections, alliances, and the possible emergence of new political platforms.
How would you summarize the political outlook as we head toward 2027?
It’s going to be interesting. The events unfolding now suggest a fluid and dynamic political environment. Kwankwaso’s decision, the direction of the PDP, the rise of the SDP, and the APC’s consolidation will all shape what 2027 looks like. For now, no single party can claim total dominance, and that’s a good sign for Nigeria’s democracy.
With the ongoing crisis and factionalization in the NNPP, how would you assess the party’s current strength?
Despite the internal divisions—where two factions of the NNPP are each claiming legitimacy following various court judgments—the party remains strong largely because of the towering influence of Dr. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso. His political clout, especially in Kano State, is what keeps the NNPP alive. It’s his personal appeal and political machinery that delivered the party’s only state government—Kano—as well as a significant number of federal and state legislators, including one in Jigawa. Without Kwankwaso, the NNPP would struggle for relevance.
What do you think would happen to the NNPP if Kwankwaso decides to leave?
His departure would leave the party almost empty. Kwankwaso is the engine of the NNPP. If he decides to remain, it will only be under the condition that he assumes full control of the party. Should that happen, the NNPP may not only maintain its current relevance but could even grow stronger. But if he leaves, it’s very likely the party’s relevance will sharply decline. So, his next move is crucial to the party’s survival.
If he eventually leaves, what would his alignment with another party mean for the political landscape?
That depends entirely on which party he joins. If it’s the APC, it would be a strategic decision based on serious political calculations and negotiations. His entry would undoubtedly strengthen the APC, especially in Kano where he still commands massive grassroots support. If he joins the SDP or another smaller party, the effect would be similar—he would enhance that party’s visibility and credibility, particularly in Kano and perhaps parts of Jigawa. Wherever Kwankwaso goes, he adds weight. His political capital remains significant.