Déjà vu

How time flies. It has been 12 years since the nation stood still as the major opposition parties collapsed into the APC back in 2013. The APC merger had cult following throughout most of the country and even national security implications if the merger had been scuttled with the involvement of state institutions. Today we […]

How time flies. It has been 12 years since the nation stood still as the major opposition parties collapsed into the APC back in 2013. The APC merger had cult following throughout most of the country and even national security implications if the merger had been scuttled with the involvement of state institutions.

Today we have something akin to the political dynamics prevalent during the late GEJ-era, although the particular opposition mechanism being built through the ADC is quite dissimilar compared to the APC contraption.

Yes, the ADC is likewise purpose-built to challenge an entrenched ruling party. But those who speak of this ADC coalition in the same breath as the 2013 merger that produced the APC either do so out of wishful thinking or out of disillusioned cynicism. For, while the APC was forged, whatever its later contradictions around a national momentum for rapture, what is now before us is a regrouping of displaced gladiators who are not ready for retirement.

Lest we forget, the APC was not born in the same kind of vacuum that exists today with regards to a full spectrum popular awakening or lack of it. The APC was the child of mass discontent with a PDP that had calcified into a machinery of impunity. The APC, from the time of its formation, spoke the language spoken in the streets… its very conception rode on the shoulders of a restive population tired of stagnation, of rigged processes and of squandered hope. The people in the streets who spoke the language of the streets marched ahead of the political elite. They owned the language of “change” before any manifesto was printed. It was the language of change they spoke that was transcribed as a manifesto, not some arcane, complicated “dogon turanci” packaged by academics and boardroom fatcats to be sold to the streets.

What then is the animating spirit of the ADC contraption? What is its program? What grievance of the masses does it provide expression for? What popular uprising does it mirror? What social contracts does it argue for? Clearly, President Bola Tinubu, who is seeking re-election in 2027, is playing the role of the fox—working strategically behind the scenes to position the APC for continued dominance. And the gaps in strategy and cohesion in the ADC arrangement is going to play into his hands without the foregoing questions being credibly answered. Those behind the newly energised ADC have been loudly positioning themselves as the lions… determined to remove Tinubu from office through the ballot box.

When the ADC announced its emergence as a reinvigorated opposition force, what occurred was, in business parlance—though not officially labeled as such—an acquisition rather than a merger, which was the model used in the formation of the APC. In ADC’s case, a significant number of political heavyweights from various opposition parties chose to join the existing ADC structure, which has been around since 2006 when it was  founded  rather than dissolve their structures entirely into a new party.

This is a different approach from February 2013, when three major parties—ACN, CPC, and ANPP, together with a splinter faction of the then-ruling PDP the new PDP or nPDP, merged to form the APC. The current ADC reformation, however, is being powered by politicians who have been exiled from their former comfort zones for one reason or another. For good measure, some of them are founders of the very parties they have now abandoned. These individuals have now found a new home in ADC and hope to stage a political comeback through it.

Just as the APC was the vehicle that led this administration to victory in 2015, the new-look ADC aspires to replicate that feat in 2027. However, life is dynamic, and past strategies may no longer be sufficient for tackling present-day challenges. Attempting to replicate APC’s 2015 coup de gras may  even be likened to going into modern warfare with bayonets and arrows when the new enemy is armed with hypersonic missiles and stealth bombers.

Unless the coalition forming around ADC has something hidden they are not sharing with the public, it appears likely that they will make a splash—but not a dent—against a ruling party that has planted seeds of policy and infrastructure that are beginning to bear visible fruit.

The APC was a coming together of three major camps: late Buhari’s Congress for Progressive Change, CPC, which originated from The Buhari Organisation, formed in 2006 by Muhammadu Buhari and his political allies; Asiwaju Bola Tinubu’s Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN, known for its strong regional presence and mobilisation efforts; and the All Nigeria Peoples Party ANPP, each bringing their unique histories, strengths, and contributions to the newly formed APC.

The ADC has brought together a diverse group of politicians, including Mallam Nasir el-Rufai, Abubakar Malami SAN, Rotimi Amaechi, and Rauf Aregbesola, among others. These individuals became major players in the Buhari government, shaping the country’s policies and direction. However, over time, some of these individuals have left the APC and joined other political parties, including the ADC before converging anew to create the vaunted “third force” of the Nigerian political firmament.

This coalition includes other notable politicians such as Peter Obi, the former Labour Party presidential candidate; former Senate President David Mark and the founding Chairman of the APC, John Oyegun, among others. Unlike in 2013 when the APC was formed, Nigerians may wonder what the purpose of this coalition is beyond capturing power.

The big question on everyone’s mind is whether this present ADC coalition is different from the APC coalition of 2014. Can it be trusted? Are we at the same type of precipice the nation was on in 2013? What is going on today is a parade of the same faces, so is it another illusion rather than a genuine attempt at governance?

Is this déjà vu?