Different states, different strokes

Those states that sent their first term governors packing and brought in brand new ones [Bauchi, Adamawa]; those states that re-elected their first term governors with narrow margins [Sokoto, Kano, Plateau, Benue, Taraba]; those states that re-elected their first term governors with much wider margins [Kebbi, Jigawa, Kaduna, Katsina, Niger, Delta, Ebonyi, Enugu, Abia, Akwa […]

Those states that sent their first term governors packing and brought in brand new ones [Bauchi, Adamawa]; those states that re-elected their first term governors with narrow margins [Sokoto, Kano, Plateau, Benue, Taraba]; those states that re-elected their first term governors with much wider margins [Kebbi, Jigawa, Kaduna, Katsina, Niger, Delta, Ebonyi, Enugu, Abia, Akwa Ibom, Cross River]; those states that elected their outgoing governors’ anointed successors with overwhelming margins [Borno, Yobe];  that state which elected its outgoing governor’s anointed successor by a narrow margin [Nasarawa]; those states that rejected their outgoing governors’ anointed candidates [Gombe, Ogun, Oyo, Imo, Kwara]; that state that ditched its first term governor at the say-so of a godfather and accepted another one anointed by him [Lagos]; that state which thought it elected a new governor, only for the court to say the man they thought they elected wasn’t on the ballot [Zamfara]; that state which still does not know who its next governor will be [Rivers]; as well as those states that sat grinning on the sidelines when most other states were gripped by governorship election fever [Edo, Anambra, Osun, Ekiti, Ondo, Kogi, Bayelsa], which ones among them are likely to have the political last laugh when the dust settles from the 2019 elections?

Of this last group of states, one of them [Osun] is more unsettled than the others. An election tribunal ruled a week ago that its APC governor should vacate the seat and his PDP opponent, who is in hot contention to become the national dancing champion, should occupy the seat instead. While we wait for higher courts to have final say in the matter, Osun is a toss-up right now between the country’s two leading parties. Of the remaining six, the governors of Bayelsa, Anambra and Ekiti are in their second and final terms, so ambitious aspirants are right now poring over the 2019 election results to see if they can isolate the winning formulae. Their counterparts in Kogi, Ondo and Edo are however in their first terms and they must be pondering what the real lesson of the 2019 elections is.

The answer is: there were as many lessons as there were states.     Two states in Nigeria that share the same umbilical cord came out of this election walking in lockstep. Borno and Yobe are the only states in Northern Nigeria that have never had a PDP governor. Since 1999 Borno and Yobe have been ruled by APP and its successors ANPP and APC. This time too, they acted in lockstep when both states elected APC candidates that were anointed by their APC governors. For that matter, they did so by very wide margins, 70% in Yobe’s case, 95% in Borno’s case. Those were the most overwhelming electoral margins in the country, which suggest that the North Easterners were the surest of what they want.

The only other state in Nigeria that never had a PDP governor is Lagos. It has been continuously ruled by AD and its successors ACN, AC and APC. The political continuity in Lagos State is currently guaranteed by its having the most potent godfather in Nigerian politics. His reach goes beyond the state to the whole South West region. The godfather however slipped in this election because he could not deliver two states [Oyo, Ondo] while a third one that he thought was in the bag [Osun] may be slipping away through the courts. Asiwaju Bola Tinubu however has a 4-year rolling plan to conquer not only the South West but the whole of Nigeria in 2023.

Those states that threw out their current governors, albeit with narrow margins, were the most politically audacious in this election season.  Throwing out a sitting governor at the polls is not easy given his enormous reach, fat purse, high visibility and elaborate political network. These two states however sent a message that neither those factors nor the relative certainty of continuity and nor even the long coattails of a popular president could save a governor that did not live up to their expectation. More than anything, their example could make all governors in Nigeria to sit up henceforth.

The third group of states, those that re-elected their governors with razor-thin margins, could be in for a period of instability. PDP in Kano, APC in Sokoto, PDP in Plateau, APC in Benue and APC in Taraba are still smarting over their narrow loss at the polls and many of them are looking in the direction of the tribunals for a reversal. Since all of them except Taraba had inconclusive and supplementary elections, they must be closely studying the Osun Formula, where the election tribunal said the supplementary election was illegal. If the same were to happen in these states, the only flip would be in Kano, where PDP led in the main election.

Those states that re-elected their governors with wide margins do not face any likely danger of a reversal. Their only problem for now is how the governor who easily won re-election might interpret his victory. A man who won re-election with a wide margin is likely to feel that he is politically invincible, that he has been doing the right thing all along and does not have to change his style or speed things up, and that he will still be popular after another four years. That might be a misreading of the situation; sometimes an incumbent is re-elected only because voters feel that the alternative to him is worse. Sometimes.

The five states that twice elected a man as governor but when he was going, rejected his anointed successor have also said something, to borrow a popular phrase among young Kaduna girls during our bachelor days. At least two of the governors [Ogun, Imo] appeared to be taking their voters for granted when they stood for election as senators on their known parties’ platforms but they anointed successors who stood for election on different party platforms. I cannot remember a similar case of taking voters for fools in the last 50 years of Nigerian politics. In Ogun’s case the voters stuck to APC while in Imo’s case the APC/AA split personality threw the governorship onto PDP’s waiting laps.

Things were simpler for the governors of Oyo, Kwara and Gombe who stood by their anointed candidates in the same parties and were jointly repudiated by the voters. Oyo State was spared a four-way split when at the last minute, some major opposition parties agreed to back the PDP candidate. Most states had only two contending parties while in a few others, such as Adamawa, Nasarawa and Imo, a third party made an important showing in the governorship poll. This political equivalent of insurgency is likely to increase in years to come due to the increasing high-handedness of leaders of the major parties.

As for those states that elected their governors’ anointed successors [Borno, Yobe, Nasarawa, possibly Zamfara], the biggest danger down the line is possible split between godfather and godson. This has happened all too often since 1999; very few men in Nigeria, such as Dr. Bukola Saraki, anointed a governor who never rebelled. To their credit, Saraki and Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed’s political fall came together. Rebellions by godsons can be avoided if the godfather keeps a healthy distance after leaving the scene. Former Zamfara State governor Alhaji Ahmed Sani, Yariman Bakura, apparently learnt his lesson very well when he fell out with the first governor he anointed but managed to avoid a fallout with the second one he anointed. This, even though Abdulaziz Yari Abubakar is much more volatile and irascible than the very gentle Mamuda Aliyu Shinkafi. Newly minted godfathers could do well to ask Yariman Bakura how he did it.

There were few uniting lessons from the 2019 governorship polls. It was mostly a case of different states, different strokes.