Do we still need rain, flood prediction?

These predictions, usually prepared by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) and the Nigerian Hydrological Service Agency (NIHSA), witnessed mixed reactions from Nigerians as the predictions do not come out as announced.In 2013, NIMET informed Nigerians through its seasonal rainfall prediction that the rainfall for that year would be heavy and would result in flood greater […]

These predictions, usually prepared by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) and the Nigerian Hydrological Service Agency (NIHSA), witnessed mixed reactions from Nigerians as the predictions do not come out as announced.
In 2013, NIMET informed Nigerians through its seasonal rainfall prediction that the rainfall for that year would be heavy and would result in flood greater in magnitude than what was experienced in 2012.
That same year, NIHSA also predicted flood in areas that had hitherto had no history of flood, a development that led to people relocating and government awarding contracts for the construction of camps but the flood didn’t happen, nor was the rain as heavy as predicted.
Mr Ifeanyi Daniel Nnodu, Director Weather Forecasting Services at NIMET reacting to farmers allegations that NIMET’s predictions lacked accuracy said: “It is ignorance, it is like you say that you won’t go to the hospital when you have malaria because the last time you took malaria drug it didn’t work. You will be doing yourself a lot of harm. It is better you go to hospital and get malaria drug and treat your malaria.
“Sometimes you will have persistent malaria in the same way as you predict weather, sometimes the prediction may not come exactly, but it is better to have a prediction that gives you information for planning.
 “If we predict 10 times, what we have said and what we have done, seven times out of the 10 are correct. If three of the predictions do not come correct, that does not mean we are unreliable. People do not understand that there are other people who have used the product and are very happy about it.”  
Mr Moses Beckley, acting Director General, Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency, said that the agency uses two approaches known as Soil Water and Assessment Tool and Stream Flow Model to come about its flood forecast.
“In our 2014 prediction we were able to record about 67 per cent accuracy because we used two approaches and also did some statistical analysis,” he added.
Another year has started and very soon, the predictions will start rolling in, but the question is do Nigerians still believe in the predictions?