Don’t ignore NiMET’s weather forecast

Last week the Nigeria Meteorological Agency presented its Seasonal Rainfall Prediction (SRP) containing rainfall pattern and temperature outlook for the year, as well as the possible socio-economic implications of the projected weather patterns. The prediction indicated that in 2016, the rainy season will be characterised by “late on-set, early cessation and lower-than-normal rainfall in many […]

Last week the Nigeria Meteorological Agency presented its Seasonal Rainfall Prediction (SRP) containing rainfall pattern and temperature outlook for the year, as well as the possible socio-economic implications of the projected weather patterns. The prediction indicated that in 2016, the rainy season will be characterised by “late on-set, early cessation and lower-than-normal rainfall in many parts of the country, especially in the northernmost parts.” It also said that dry spells during the rainy season may be more frequent and severe in many parts of the north, while the ‘little dry season’ or August break in parts of the south are expected to be pronounced.
“It is necessary to state that the expected lower-than-normal rainfall in parts of the country does not rule out the possibility of isolated flash floods due to high intensity rainfall at the peak of the season, especially in places that are naturally prone to flooding,” the SRP with the theme, “The Impact of Weather Variability and Climate Change on Transportation Infrastructure and Agriculture” stated. Dr Anthony Anuforom, NiMET’s Director General said during the launch of the prediction that there are risk factors for farmers in the affected areas especially in the north and that these factors have to be carefully and scientifically managed.
In the last four years NiMeT had been issuing the annual rainfall prediction and it is on record that the 2012 flood that took the country unawares was predicted by NiMeT but nobody followed up or took precaution. This year, the agency had gone ahead to present the socio-economic implications of the SRP for the various key sectors to guide government, farmers and the organised private sector operators throughout the year. For Agriculture, the SRP predicted late onset of rains in and around Sokoto, Zamfara, Kaduna, Borno and Adamawa, a situation that will create water stress during the beginning of the cropping season. The agency therefore advised the use of irrigation.
It also noted that warmer-than-normal temperatures projected in February and April for several parts of the country will negatively affect livestock, fish farming and water availability for animals. The agency also advised the use of vaccination to tackle the challenge.
NiMet’s warning of less-than-normal rainfall must be taken seriously by all stakeholders. The predicted dry year is attributed to the effects of strong El Nino that has persisted since 2015. The Agency notes that of particular concern is the fact that the dry spell may set in from May to June/July of this year, when farmers will likely have planted their crops. If not well managed, this could result in crop failure.
Anuforom noted that rainfall variability remained a major risk factor that must be carefully managed in order to ensure the success of government’s renewed interest in agriculture as the practice of agriculture in the country is predominantly rain-fed.
Last year, most parts of the country experienced late onset of rainfall but still witnessed widespread flood events in 17 states of the federation. In spite of the late onset of rain, flooding was reported in many parts of the country between June and September. The summary of this prediction is that, there will be low moisture and heightened dryness in Nigeria this year. And knowing that most of NiMet’s predictions proved to be accurate, we must prepare for the above scenario.
Farmers must be encouraged to use crop varieties that are early maturing and drought resistant and the various state Ministries of Agriculture should step up enlightenment campaigns using extension workers to pass the weather message to the farmers to enable them take action.
The federal government needs to rehabilitate all the dams abandoned across the country to encourage dry season farming since the prediction had said that there will be water stress especially in the north. Already, states that are prone to rain disasters such as flooding are well known.  It will be a disservice on their part not to take action such as evacuating water ways, clearing of drainages and informing residents on action expected of them to ensure that no life or property is lost to the predicted flood.