Drop in prices of food items pushes inflation to 15.10%

Nigeria’s headline inflation figure dropped to 15.10 percent in the month of January, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The Bureau in its monthly inflation report said the Headline inflation rate eased to 15.10 percent, down from 15.15 percent in December 2025 and looking at the movement, the January 2026 Headline inflation rate showed […]

Nigeria’s headline inflation figure dropped to 15.10 percent in the month of January, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

The Bureau in its monthly inflation report said the Headline inflation rate eased to 15.10 percent, down from 15.15 percent in December 2025 and looking at the movement, the January 2026 Headline inflation rate showed a decrease of 0.05 percent compared to the December 2025 Headline inflation rate.

Itsaid the drop was occassioned by hthe reduction of food prices like ater yam, eggs, green peas, groundnut oil, soya beans, palm oil, maize (corn) grains, guinea corn, beans, beef meat, melon (egusi) unshelled, cassava tuber, cow peas (white), among others.

The report went on to state that on a year-on-year basis, inflation rate was 12.51 percent lower than the rate recorded in January 2025 (27.61 percent), adding that it shows that the inflation rate (year-on-year basis) decreased in January 2026 compared to the same month in the preceding year (i.e., January 2025).

“On a month-on-month basis, the Headline inflation rate in January 2026 was -2.88 percent, which was 3.42 percent lower than the rate recorded in December 2025 (0.54 percent). This means that in January 2026, the rate of increase in the average price level was lower than the rate of increase in the average price level in December 2025.”

It stated that at the divisional level, the three major contributors to the headline inflation were Food and non-alcoholic Beverages: 6.04 percent, Restaurants & Accommodation Services: 1.95 percent, and Transport: 1.61 percent; while the least contributors were Recreation, Sport, and Culture: 0.05 percent, Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco, and Narcotics: 0.06 percent, and Insurance and Financial Services: 0.07.

On food inflation rate, it said the figure was 8.89 percent on a year-on-year basis but on a month-on-month basis, the food inflation rate in January 2026 was –6.02 percent, down by -5.66 percent compared to December 2025 (-0.36 percent).

“The decrease can be attributed to the rate of decrease in the average prices of water yam, eggs, green peas, groundnut oil, soya beans, palm oil, maize (corn) grains, guinea corn, beans, beef meat, melon (egusi) unshelled, cassava tuber, cow peas (white), among others.”

 

The newly introduced indices

It said the inflation rate of the sub-indices for January 2026 shows that Services was the only index with an increasing rate of 0.48 percent.

“Others declined in the month accordingly; Imported Food (-6.81 percent), Farm Produce (-5.10 percent), Goods (-4.63 percent); Energy (-3.13 percent).  Meanwhile, the inflation rate on a year-on-year basis recorded were as follows; Services (22.17 percent), Energy (11.17 percent), Goods (11.03 percent), Farm Produce (9.76 percent) and Imported Food (7.62 percent).”

 

Urban and rural inflation rates

On a year-on-year basis, the urban inflation rate was 15.36 percent. On a month-on-month basis, the urban inflation rate was -2.72 percent in January 2026, fell by -3.71 percent compared to December 2025 (0.99 percent).

The rural inflation rate was 14.44 percent on a year-on-year basis. On a month-on-month basis, the rural inflation rate in January 2026 was -3.29 percent, fell by -2.74 percent compared to December 2025 (-0.55 percent).

Food inflation on a Year-on-Year basis was highest in Kogi (19.84 percent), Benue (18.38 percent), and Adamawa (17.29 percent), while Ebonyi (1.69 percent), Abia (3.23 percent), and Imo (3.74 percent) recorded the slowest rise in Food inflation on a Year-on-Year basis. On a Month-on-Month basis, however, January 2026 Food inflation was highest in Imo (-1.26 percent), Akwa Ibom (-2.21 percent) and Zamfara (-2.96 percent), while Yobe (-11.88 percent), Nasarawa (-9.06 percent), and Sokoto (-8.31 percent) recorded a decline in Food inflation on a Month-on-Month basis.

 

Consumers, farmers face mixed fortunes with food price drop – Expert

Commenting on the inflation figure, the Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr. Muda Yusuf said the continued drop in prices of food, which makes the large contribution in the CPI basket presents a mixed fortunes for consumers and farmers.

He explained that the sharp moderation in food inflation carries substantial welfare benefits because food accounts for the largest share of household expenditure in Nigeria.

He noted that lower food prices are therefore expected to improve real purchasing power, particularly for low-income households; reduce poverty and food-security pressures as well as support gradual recovery in consumer demand for non-food goods and services.

He added that if sustained, these developments could stimulate retail trade, manufacturing utilisation, and service-sector activity, thereby supporting broader economic recovery.

On the other hand, he said declining food prices benefit consumers, but they also pose risks for farm incomes and rural economic stability.

He noted that sustained weakness in farm-gate prices may reduce farmers’ revenues and investment capacity.

“It will weaken rural purchasing power; discourage agricultural production, potentially creating future supply shortages and renewed inflation pressures. There is therefore a critical need to balance consumer affordability with producer sustainability to safeguard national food security.”

He added that Nigeria’s January 2026 inflation outcomes signal a meaningful transition toward macroeconomic stabilisation, driven primarily by declining food prices and supported by easing core inflation.

“The development is positive for household welfare, consumption recovery, and investment confidence, but presents downside risks for farm incomes and rural economic sustainability. The central policy priority is therefore to consolidate disinflation while protecting agricultural productivity and rural livelihoods. Achieving this balance will be critical to transforming current price moderation into durable stability, inclusive growth, and improved investor confidence in Nigeria’s economy.”